On Sun, 14 Jun 2026 02:43:30 -0300, Ll|-o <llb.moura@gmail.com> wrote:
On 13/06/2026 17:55, milivella wrote:
I would also say that the "happy to be there" effect is not only about
the post-match reception at home, although I did allude to it in my
post, and it is related to what I'm about to say. It's about some teams'
higher expectations pushing (or crushing) players' efforts to meet them.
For example, to actually win a semi or a final because they don't think
of reaching it, by itself, as enough of an accomplishment.
I have long been a proponent of the "happy to be there" theory to
explain why there are so few new *finalists* in the World Cup. With
all the vagaries of knockout rounds and penalty shootouts, it is quite surprising that the only new finalists from 1970 onwards have been:
Netherlands 1974 (historically great team)
Argentina 1978 (home field advantage)
France 1998 (home field advantage)
Spain 2010 (historically great team)
Croatia 2018 (only real exception)
On 13/06/2026 16:55, milivella wrote:
Ll|-o:
On 12/06/2026 18:02, milivella wrote:
According to Futbolmetrix, nobody has ever done "assigning average
goals for and against to each team, then letting a model run 10,000
simulations of the competition" (which IMHO is something inbetween
"human" and "computer-generated", but closer to the former).
That could be a little more complex than it seems, since the expected
amount of goals of a given team in a game should be a function of who
is their opponent.
Do you mean that:
- playing against a specific tactic makes a match easier/harder for a
team
- playing against a specific historic rival makes a team play
differently than they would against a team of roughly the same strength
- generally, things like these
?
Yes, I was thinking along those lines.
Indeed, there's also the practical aspect that you get something that is actually doable. Adding layers of complexity may lead to a more
"realistic" prediction (whatever that may mean), but may be too
difficult to implement.
I would also say that the "happy to be there" effect is not only about
the post-match reception at home, although I did allude to it in my
post, and it is related to what I'm about to say. It's about some teams' higher expectations pushing (or crushing) players' efforts to meet them.
For example, to actually win a semi or a final because they don't think
of reaching it, by itself, as enough of an accomplishment.
And one example of that seems to appear in the above link, Rummenigge's quote about the 1982 and 1986 losses being a "painful gap" in his
career, rather than two further accomplishments.
Now, of course this isn't all there is to it, otherwise we'd never have
new winners :-)
On Sun, 14 Jun 2026 02:43:30 -0300, Ll|-o <llb.moura@gmail.com> wrote:
On 13/06/2026 17:55, milivella wrote:
I would also say that the "happy to be there" effect is not only about
the post-match reception at home, although I did allude to it in my
post, and it is related to what I'm about to say. It's about some teams'
higher expectations pushing (or crushing) players' efforts to meet them.
For example, to actually win a semi or a final because they don't think
of reaching it, by itself, as enough of an accomplishment.
I have long been a proponent of the "happy to be there" theory to
explain why there are so few new *finalists* in the World Cup. With
all the vagaries of knockout rounds and penalty shootouts, it is quite surprising that the only new finalists from 1970 onwards have been:
Netherlands 1974 (historically great team)
Argentina 1978 (home field advantage)
France 1998 (home field advantage)
Spain 2010 (historically great team)
Croatia 2018 (only real exception)
Futbolmetrix:
On Sun, 14 Jun 2026 02:43:30 -0300, Ll|-o <llb.moura@gmail.com> wrote:
On 13/06/2026 17:55, milivella wrote:
I would also say that the "happy to be there" effect is not only about
the post-match reception at home, although I did allude to it in my
post, and it is related to what I'm about to say. It's about some teams' >>> higher expectations pushing (or crushing) players' efforts to meet them. >>> For example, to actually win a semi or a final because they don't think
of reaching it, by itself, as enough of an accomplishment.
I have long been a proponent of the "happy to be there" theory to
explain why there are so few new *finalists* in the World Cup. With
all the vagaries of knockout rounds and penalty shootouts, it is quite
surprising that the only new finalists from 1970 onwards have been:
Netherlands 1974 (historically great team)
Argentina-a-a 1978 (home field advantage)
France-a-a-a-a-a 1998 (home field advantage)
Spain-a-a-a-a-a-a 2010 (historically great team)
Croatia-a-a-a-a 2018 (only real exception)
Where is MH when it's not me that says something inexact about history?!
Ll|-o:
I would also say that the "happy to be there" effect is not only about
the post-match reception at home, although I did allude to it in my
post, and it is related to what I'm about to say. It's about some
teams' higher expectations pushing (or crushing) players' efforts to
meet them. For example, to actually win a semi or a final because they
don't think of reaching it, by itself, as enough of an accomplishment.
And one example of that seems to appear in the above link,
Rummenigge's quote about the 1982 and 1986 losses being a "painful
gap" in his career, rather than two further accomplishments.
Now, of course this isn't all there is to it, otherwise we'd never
have new winners :-)
Actually, you just have to add the "home team pressure" and you can
explain almost all new winners!
Last time a WC was played, I posted this on my blog (https:// zhouzhuang.livejournal.com/15142.html ):
"""
Another Great Soccer World Cup Conspiracy
(I am writing this before the quarter finals of World Cup 2022)
Silly theory about football World Cup winner:
-a-a-a A national team wins the World Cup if its players feel they are expected to win.
-a-a-a The idea being that if they feel like they have already got a good result by reaching a given stage (final, semifinal, etc.), they will not
put as much effort.
-a-a-a But when do players feel like they are expecting to win? I argue that it happens in two cases: (1) when their nation hosts the World Cup,
and (2) when their national team has already won the World Cup. In these
two cases, not winning the cup means failing, losing.
This theory would explain 18 of the 21 wins so far.
The 3 exceptions are:
-a-a-a West Germany 1954: they were almost at home, playing the final in Bern.
-a-a-a Brazil 1958: one could argue that they were expected to take
revenge for their loss at home in 1950.
-a-a-a Spain 2010: I accept this as the exception that proves the rule. :) """
Ll|-o:
On 13/06/2026 16:55, milivella wrote:
Ll|-o:
On 12/06/2026 18:02, milivella wrote:
According to Futbolmetrix, nobody has ever done "assigning average
goals for and against to each team, then letting a model run 10,000 >>>>> simulations of the competition" (which IMHO is something inbetween
"human" and "computer-generated", but closer to the former).
That could be a little more complex than it seems, since the
expected amount of goals of a given team in a game should be a
function of who is their opponent.
Do you mean that:
- playing against a specific tactic makes a match easier/harder for a
team
- playing against a specific historic rival makes a team play
differently than they would against a team of roughly the same strength
- generally, things like these
?
Yes, I was thinking along those lines.
Also, of course, if a team has already locked the top position in the
group, it's less motivated, etc.
Indeed, there's also the practical aspect that you get something that
is actually doable. Adding layers of complexity may lead to a more
"realistic" prediction (whatever that may mean), but may be too
difficult to implement.
Indeed!
For the moment, the link to the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LVuu8cyGhwIeIv5kMuL3xBQi-PiDKLhvNW2IhVWnDAo/edit?usp=sharing
20 Anders T -23.12 15.28 7.64
45 Agnostic -30.55 21.33 10.67
Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
20 Anders T -23.12 15.28 7.64
Top half! Yay!
45 Agnostic -30.55 21.33 10.67
Sucker!!!
On Sun, 14 Jun 2026 02:43:30 -0300, Ll|-o <llb.moura@gmail.com> wrote:
On 13/06/2026 17:55, milivella wrote:
I would also say that the "happy to be there" effect is not only about
the post-match reception at home, although I did allude to it in my
post, and it is related to what I'm about to say. It's about some teams'
higher expectations pushing (or crushing) players' efforts to meet them.
For example, to actually win a semi or a final because they don't think
of reaching it, by itself, as enough of an accomplishment.
I have long been a proponent of the "happy to be there" theory to
explain why there are so few new *finalists* in the World Cup. With
all the vagaries of knockout rounds and penalty shootouts, it is quite surprising that the only new finalists from 1970 onwards have been:
Standings after Match Day 2: https://x.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/2069640016872063239?s=20
Our very own Blueshirt is in first place! (My human prediction
is in third, so two humans in the top 3).
For the moment, the link to the spreadsheet:
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