From Newsgroup: uk.sci.weather
First projected monthly occurance of 2 degC above pre-industrial temps
comes out as in early 2032. As the Copernicus bods decided 2023 was the
year of a full year 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial. From this latest
curve the value for NOAA announcement mid 2023 ie 2023.5 is 1.1046 deg
C , so that plus 0.5 from the curve would be 1.6046 deg C in early 2032.
updated data output on 14 Sep 2026
GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index
GHCN-v4 data
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Using offline javascript curvefitter at statpages.info
and curve types linear (no acceleration), exponential (increasing acceleration), quadratic (constant acceleration), indicial (falling acceleration)
best fit marginally,by R^2, is quadratic
y= 0.591454 - 0.003378*x + 0.001073*x*x
where x is year minus 2000, for post-Pinatubo 2003.0 start, 284
datapoints, avoiding
the 10 years of recovery of geodata after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, 6
figures retained for comparison by anyone else repeating this exercise.
Returned to processing this data, with return to El Nino and return to increasing projections to 2050/2100
data to Aug 2026
projected to 2050, 3.105 deg C
to 2100, 10.984 deg C
ie back to the situation in Aug 2024 in table below
data to July 2026
projected to 2050, 3.049
to 2100, 10.685
data to June 2026
projection to 2050, 3.059
to 2100, 10.741
Suspended processing during La Nina.
for data to Nov 2024 with public output 10 Dec 2024
For 2050 , 3.224 deg C minus 1.135 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +2.089 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 11.653 deg C minus 1.135 , so +10.518 deg C
For 2050 , 3.189 deg C minus 1.135 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +2.054 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 11.447 deg C minus 1.135 , so +10.312 deg C
For 2050 , 3.145 deg C minus 1.129 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +2.016 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 11.216 deg C minus 1.129 , so +10.087 deg C
for data to Aug 2024 with public output 12 Sep 2024
For 2050 , 3.133 deg C minus 1.129 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +2.004 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 11.148 deg C minus 1.129 , so +10.019 deg C
for data to July 2024 with public output 07 Aug 2024
For 2050 , 3.084 deg C minus 1.124 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so + 1.960 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 10.889 deg C minus 1.124 , so +9.765 deg C
for data to Apr 2024 with public output July 2024
For 2050 , 3.055 deg C minus 1.120 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so + 1.935 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 10.956 deg C minus 1.120 , so +9.836 deg C
for data to Apr 2024 with public output June 2024
For 2050 , 3.012 deg C minus 1.122 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so + 1.890 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 10.569 deg C minus 1.890 , so +8.679 deg C
for data to Apr 2024 with public output 10 May 2024
For 2050 , 2.974 deg C minus 1.120 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +1.854 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 10.289 deg C minus 1.120 , so +9.169 deg C
for data to Mar 2024 with public output 11 Apr 2024
For 2050 , 2.853 deg C minus 1.110 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +1.743 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 9.485 deg C minus 1.110 , so +8.375 deg C
for data to Feb 2024 with public output about 11 Mar 2024
For 2050 , 2.678 deg C minus 1.0976 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +1.58 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 8.353 deg C minus 1.0976 , so +7.25 deg C
for data to Jan 2024 with public output about 08 Feb 2024
For 2050 , 2.475421 deg C minus 1.082587 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +1.393 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 7.091350 deg C minus 1.082587 , so +6.009 deg C
for data to Dec 2023 with public output 12 Jan 2024
For 2050 , 2.481986 deg C minus 1.082664 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +1.399 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 7.146254 deg C minus 1.082664 , so +6.064 deg C
for data to Nov 2023 with public output 14 Dec 2023
For 2050 , 2.326863 deg C minus 1.0536 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so +1.273 deg C above present
For 2100 , 6.235169 deg C minus 1.0536 , so +5.182 deg C
for data to Oct 2023 with public output 16 Nov 2023
For 2050 , 2.184512 deg C minus 1.0394074 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so +1.145 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.487198 deg C minus 1.0394 , so +4.448 deg C
for data to Sep 2023 with public output 13 Oct 2023
For 2050 , 2.081545 deg C minus 1.030 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so + 1.051 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.960298 deg C minus 1.030 , so + 3.930 deg C
for data to Aug 2023 with public output 14 Sep 2023
For 2050 , 1.980 deg C minus 1.023 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so + 0.957 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.466 deg C minus 1.023 , so + 3.443 deg C
for data to July 2023 with public output 14 Aug 2023
For 2050 , 1.89858 deg C minus 1.014 for year
23.5 of that curve , so +0.885 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.086168 deg C minus 1.014 , so +3.072 deg C
for data to June 2023 with public output 14 July 2023
For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 1.007 for year
23.5 of that curve , so +0.850 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.928 deg C minus 1.007 , so +2.921 deg C
for data to May 2023 with public output June 2023
For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 0.9979 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.902 deg C minus 0.9979 , so +2.904 deg C
for data to Apr 2023 with public output 12 May 2023
For 2050 , 1.854 deg C minus 0.9949 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.908 deg C minus 0.9949 , so +2.913 deg C
for data to Mar 2023 with public output 13 Apr 2023
For 2050 , 1.878 deg C minus 0.9989 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.879 deg C above present
For 2100 ,3.999 deg C minus 0.9989 , so +3.000 deg C
for data to Feb 2023 with public output 14 Mar 2023
For 2050 , 1.821 deg C minus 0.989 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.831 deg C above present
For 2100 ,3.774 deg C minus 0.989 , so +2.784 deg C
for data to January 2023 with public output 14 Feb 2023
For 2050 , 1.846 deg C minus 0.9966 for year
23.0 (= decimal_year 2023 start)
of that curve , so 0.8494 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.8444 deg C minus 0.9966 , so +2.8478 deg C
suggesting continued La Nina
for data to December with public output 12 Jan 2023
For 2050 , 1.8813 deg C minus 0.9677 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022 start)
of that curve , so 0.9136 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.0319 deg C minus 0.9677 , so +3.0642 deg C
suggesting continued La Nina
for data to November with public output 14 Dec 2022
For 2050 , 1.927 deg C minus 0.9724 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 0.955 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.228 deg C minus 0.9724 , so +3.256 deg C
more than compensating negatively for last months determination,
returning to extended La Nina territory
for data to October with public output 15 Nov 2022
For 2050 , 1.998 deg C minus 0.9788 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.550 deg C minus 0.9788 , so +3.571 deg C
for data to September with public output about 15 Oct 2022
For 2050 , 1.996 deg C minus 0.97800 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022 start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.554 deg C minus 0.97800 , so +3.576 deg C
so going with continued La Nina
for data to August with public output about 14 Sep 2022
For 2050 , 2.036 deg C minus 0.98107 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022 start) of that curve , so 1.055 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.741 deg C minus 0.98107 , so + 3.760
for data to July with public output about 12 Aug 2022
For 2050 , 2.032 deg C minus 0.982 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.050 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.710 deg C minus 0.982 , so + 3.728
for data to June with public output about 15 July 2022
For 2050 , 2.084 deg C minus 0.985 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.099 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.957 deg C minus 0.985 , so + 3.972
for data to May with public output about 15 June 2022
For 2050 , 2.133 deg C minus 0.987 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.146 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.217 deg C minus 0.987 , so + 4.23
for data to April 2022 public output about 13 May 2022
For 2050 , 2.205 deg C minus 0.992 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.213 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.569 deg C minus 0.992 , so + 4.577
for data to March 2022
For 2050 , 2.291 deg C minus 1.003 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.288 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.984 deg C minus 1.003 , so + 4.981
For data to Feb 2022
For 2050 , 2.301 deg C minus 1.004 for 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.297 deg C above present
For 2100 , 6.029 deg C minus 1.004 , so + 5.024
processing Jan 2022 output
For 2050 , 2.427 deg C minus 1.014 = 1.413
For 2100 , 6.70 deg C minus 1.014 = 5.686
For Nov 2021 output
2050 2.56 deg C minus 1.00 for 21.5 midyear as "present" ,=1.56
2100 6.90 deg C minus 1.00 = 5.90
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data <
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
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