From Newsgroup: uk.sci.weather

A force of nature named after another force of nature

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest
AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with
organized deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear,
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the
southern side of the circulation largely away from the center.
Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in
the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt
classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical
Storm Dolly.

The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue
moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong
ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance
is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and
the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the
guidance envelope. This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA
model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and
poleward in the tropical Atlantic.

The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for
strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus. All of our guidance
is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it
reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely
coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV
Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone
when it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin
to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain.
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data <http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
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From Newsgroup: uk.sci.weather

On Thu, 27 Aug 2026 16:27:00 +0100
N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:

A force of nature named after another force of nature

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest
AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with
organized deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear,
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the
southern side of the circulation largely away from the center.
Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in
the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt
classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical
Storm Dolly.

The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue
moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong
ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance
is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and
the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the
guidance envelope. This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA
model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and
poleward in the tropical Atlantic.

The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for
strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus. All of our guidance
is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it
reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV
Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone
when it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin
to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

"It would be convenient to say there is a problem with the Exeter Met Office/NTSLF big-data surge predictor of the blue or NTSLF tidecurves underlying the red. But this UK MSL <>0.15m anomaly over recent years
is showing up with similar values in two other independent monitoring processes, independent of NTSLF and independent of each other. Unknown
to me whether the same anomaly is showing up in Scandinavia or Iceland,
or France say. A possible alternative explanation could be
hydro-isostasy from the extra weight of sea water in the last few
decades , depressing the NE Atlantic basin. But how that would affect
the margin, ie like the UK, up or down is unknown to me , additional to post-glacial GIA, but difficult to see it amounting to about 0.15m. Or
of course simple warming of N. Atlantic water to depth, increasing sea
level . Until the mechanism of this mean sea level rise is known, its impossible to say whether the anomalous rise is limited, cyclic or
ongoing, currently my analysis of it shows it to be ongoing rising in
2023. Newlyn MSL since 2020.0 rising 5mm per year, with a yearly
superimposed sinusoid of 2.8cm amplitude in 2020, increasing by 6
percent per year. Peak anomaly in April each year , current prediction
of 0.19m April 2024 above global SLR and local GIA."
Local phenomenon.
"Why Some Places Seem DifferentLocal Differences: Sea level rise is not
the same everywhere. Wind, ocean currents, and Earth's gravity change
how water pools in different regions.Sinking Land: Some coastal areas
sink because of human activity or natural shifts, which makes the water
look like it is rising faster there." https://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/9/are-sea-levels-rising-the-same-all-over-the-world-as-if-were-filling-a-giant-bathtub/
No. Sea level rise is uneven, the two main reasons being ocean dynamics and EarthrCOs uneven gravity field.
First, ocean dynamics is the redistribution of mass due to currents driven by wind, heating, evaporation and precipitation. For example, during La Ni|#a events, sea level goes down because some rain that usually occurs over the ocean shifts to land, and the same phenomenon produces low latitude currents that redistribute seawater. Regional climate cycles, like El Ni|#o and La Ni|#a, and longer-term effects, like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, change ocean circulation, which changes sea level.
Earth's gravity field
A visualization of EarthrCOs gravity field using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Gravity is determined by mass; EarthrCOs mass is not distributed equally, and it also changes over time. Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Texas Center for Space Research
Second, because the distribution of EarthrCOs mass is uneven, EarthrCOs gravity is also uneven. Therefore, the oceanrCOs surface isnrCOt actually a perfect sphere or ellipsoid; it is a bumpy surface. As the land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica continue to unload their mass (lose ice) from far above sea level and far from the tropics, that mass reaches the sea in the form of meltwater that is then redistributed along EarthrCOs gravity field.
The areas farthest from the melted ice will see the most sea level rise as a result. Conversely, areas nearest to Greenland and Antarctica will see the least amount of sea level rise (and some areas will actually see sea levels drop). Scientists even track the annual cycle of ice sheet mass losses to further refine their sea level rise measurements.
Between 1993 and 2018, sea level rose 12 to 15 millimeters per year
(about half an inch per year) in some regions, and went down by that
amount in others. But on average, it has gone up by about 3 millimeters
per year (about 28 millimeters, or 1-1/8 inches, per decade) in that
same period. Most of this unevenness is caused by ocean dynamics.
--- Synchronet 3.22a-Linux NewsLink 1.2

From Newsgroup: uk.sci.weather

From: frying air <hot@in.side>

On Thu, 27 Aug 2026 16:27:00 +0100
N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:

A force of nature named after another force of nature
=20
Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion
=20
000
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4
=20
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

...
Between 1993 and 2018, sea level rose 12 to 15 millimeters per year
(about half an inch per year) in some regions, and went down by that
amount in others. But on average, it has gone up by about 3 millimeters
per year (about 28 millimeters, or 1-1/8 inches, per decade) in that
same period. Most of this unevenness is caused by ocean dynamics.

Due to the shape of Earth the equator is "higher" and the temperate
lats. So we generally find ports on the equator are seeing small or
even negative SLR as the "water runs away" to higher lats.
(So that's where the climate deniers tend to quote their
"average" numbers from).

The pattern is around .7mm increase in SLR each 10deg away from the
equator you go.

And *this* means the higher lats see a startlingly higher level of SLR
than the average.

Basic calcs show ports between 40-50deg N or S are seeing 5mm/yr more
SLR than "global average" while sub-polar ports lats 50-60 N and S are
seeing 10mm more than global average SLR.
--
The Trump administration cut Nevada's water usage. Now the state is suing
CNN, 26 Aug 2026 02:37
This could be the first of many legal wrangles over the Colorado River --
and is yet another sign of how fraught water sharing ...

SA wildlife park to vaccinate 100 birds against deadly H5 bird flu
ABC News, 25 Aug 2026
Cleland Wildlife Park in the Adelaide Hills will administer
vaccines to 100 of its captive native birds to try and protect
against H5N1 bird flu.

[Triple digits is jis a numma!]
Denver breaks daily record high temperature with triple-digit heat
The Denver Post, 22 Aug 2026 10:35
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We did start the fire
Politico, 22 Aug 2026 08:05
U.S. wildfires are on pace to burn more acres this year than in any year
since daily recordkeeping began in 1994 -- and ...
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other flammable areas causing the global burn area to go down. But
the percent of wild areas burning is still going up. In the US the
amount of wild-land is remaining relatively stable hence burn area
still increasing. And of course forest area is only a tiny part of the
wilds, a point often confuscated by the shills].

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The New York Times, 22 Aug 2026 08:05
Arizona's share of the river will shrink by a third, likely increasing
reliance on groundwater and raising pressure on ...

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New Scientist, 22 Aug 2026 08:04
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could start flooding on calm, sunny days for no visible reason
Space Daily, 21 Aug 2026 20:44

Panama Canal to cut daily transits as El Ni?o grips region
Financial Times, 21 Aug 2026 11:35

Where the World Is Burning in 2026
Visual Capitalist, Aug 2026
As of August 1, 2026, wildfires and landscape fires have burned 112.3
million hectares of land across the globe, an area roughly the ...

Record 2026 Wildfires Burn 150 Million Hectares Worldwide as ...
DownToEarth, 12 May 2026
Record wildfires burned over 150 million hectares worldwide in early 2026,
with Africa and Asia hardest hit.

The Swiss company digging bunkers to safeguard the super-rich
The Times, 19 Aug 2026 05:52

US siblings become NZ refugees as more than 20 Americans claim asylum
RNZ, 19 Aug 2026 05:38
Government figures show more than 20 Americans have applied for asylum in
New Zealand since 2020 - and at least one family ...

Russians pull billions from banks, fearing Kremlin will seize deposits for war The Washington Post, 19 Aug 2026 02:45

Farmers face ?550m hit from worst harvest on record
Yahoo Finance, 15 Aug 2026 15:07
British farmers face a ?550m hit this year as heatwaves and drought lead to
the worst harvest on record. The UK was already forecast to suffer its most dismal year yet for farming, but figures ...

[114 is jis a numma!]
Entire state of Florida under heat advisory. When will it cool off?
Tallahassee Democrat, 15 Aug 2026 08:48
The entire state of Florida is under a heat advisory, with some areas
facing an extreme heat warning. Temperatures are in the mid- to high 90s,
but the heat index makes it feel like 105 to 114 degrees ...

'Really extreme situation': Edmonton's wettest summer on record raises questions around erosion
Edmonton Journal, 15 Aug 2026 08:47
According to University of Alberta engineering professor Renato Macciotta, erosion in Edmonton typically happens in two ...

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France 24, 15 Aug 2026 01:45
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[Tinderbox Britain:]
British PM Andy Burnham: 'Tinderbox' Britain must 'face up to the
changing climate'
Le Monde, 15 Aug 2026 01:43
Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets with emergency responders from the West Midlands Police Service during a visit to ...

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From Newsgroup: uk.sci.weather

On 27/08/2026 22:55, R Kym Horsell wrote:

From: frying air <hot@in.side>

On Thu, 27 Aug 2026 16:27:00 +0100
N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:

A force of nature named after another force of nature
=20
Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion
=20
000
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4
=20
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

...
Between 1993 and 2018, sea level rose 12 to 15 millimeters per year
(about half an inch per year) in some regions, and went down by that
amount in others. But on average, it has gone up by about 3 millimeters
per year (about 28 millimeters, or 1-1/8 inches, per decade) in that
same period. Most of this unevenness is caused by ocean dynamics.

Due to the shape of Earth the equator is "higher" and the temperate
lats. So we generally find ports on the equator are seeing small or
even negative SLR as the "water runs away" to higher lats.
(So that's where the climate deniers tend to quote their
"average" numbers from).

The pattern is around .7mm increase in SLR each 10deg away from the
equator you go.

And *this* means the higher lats see a startlingly higher level of SLR
than the average.

Basic calcs show ports between 40-50deg N or S are seeing 5mm/yr more
SLR than "global average" while sub-polar ports lats 50-60 N and S are
seeing 10mm more than global average SLR.

Scandinavia and such high latitudes have negative local SLR because of
extreme GIA since the last ice age.
I'm quite prepared to believe the "Newlyn" effect is something to do
with change in currents in that area. But for the moment, no one in
academe or NTSLF, is explaining the origin or even its existence , They
blame their tools, bubbler gauges referenced to GPS rather than
radar gauges referenced to local OS benchmarks and unupdated tidecurves. Getting an accurate idea of local GIA is irrelevant to flooding issues
as its referenced to ground level , not some virtual mathematical geoid.
I'm going with freshening of the NE N Atlantic from Baltic fresh water
run out and also Greenland run off as the source of the anomaly.
This , with the 2 extra datapoints
2026.636, 0.2126
2026.636, 0.2179
to bring up to 27 Aug 2026

http://www.diverse.4mg.com/msl_anomaly22aug2026.gif

is what I call the anomaly.
Annual signal buried in there and seemingly rising, recent close to
0.3m presumably a short term aberration due to marine heat wave for
south UK waters this summer.
Each 3 days processing this data with rms curve-fit

https://ntslf.org/files/surgeforecast/ntslf_newlyn.1.3.png?

IMHO the red line should be 0.16m lower, NTSLF should have added the RMS
error to their tidevcurve , not added to the supercomputer MetO Exeter
outputs of the "surge predictor. Since the "glitches" on 29 August 2024
in their archive plots for all UK ports, 0.16m for Newlyn, 0.13m for Portsmouth to, In the NTSLF representations quiet settled weather does
not now reflect the inverse-barometer tenet of oceanography , for slack
water 1cm of sea level change for each 1mbar change in atmosphic
pressure above and below 1013mB.
No matter its origin this rising sinusoid, so far, fits the bill for
supplying the missing mean sea llevel A0 component of my tide curves for Southampton and Portsmouth , England.
Using 260 compound harmonic constants, the academic accepted figure for
local GIA, and global SLR from altimetry, was not enough.
The 18.6 year harmonic for Brest, France is about 10cm, the Solent area presumably similar. After a couple of years , I was needing an 18.6 year amplitude of 50cm to keep pace with rising levels , fitting the
tidecurves to local radar tide gauges. So went looking for an extra
vertical component.
The latest anomaly function is giving 1.52cm/yr for this year and a
whopping 91cm projected to 2050, far more than required, presumably a
downturn sometime, but no hint at present.
But at the moment all is hunky-dory. Each week, for the local flood
action group, I do a 5 way plot comparison each week, between my tide
curves and tide gauge reality for Southampton and Portsmouth.
Comparing Soton tidecurve residual with NTSLF portsmouth residual
Portsmouth tidecurve residual with NTSLF portsmouth residual, quiet
weather near enough the same.
Soton residual with Lynmington auto residual, nearly the same
Inverse barometer comparison with quiet weather normalised NTSLF
portsmouth residual.
Mark1 eyeball comparison between local "vernier" high tide level on a
local public hard, levelled against local OS benchmark, compared to
local EA1034 Woolston radar tide gauge, to check for any drift in that
gauge.
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data <http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
--- Synchronet 3.22a-Linux NewsLink 1.2