• So when will the UK get full-blown hurricanes.?

    From N_Cook@diverse@tcp.co.uk to uk.sci.weather on Mon Aug 17 12:12:01 2026
    From Newsgroup: uk.sci.weather

    Rather than tail-end ex-hurricanes, 1987 'hurricane' was sting-jet and tropospheric origined cyclogenesis.
    With all the recent years elevated SST of the N Atlantic, 2023,2024 and
    2026 are presumably not blips.
    For the possibility of Atlantic SST in augusts at the Channel Approaches getting to 26 degree C , the critical hurricane maintaining temperature,
    and the UK getting full-on hurricanes.
    Using the data on climatereanalyzer.org and a best fit by RMS curve-fitter.
    For the pairs of projections below, the more distant year is based on 26
    degC maximum on the line Miami to Lands End. The nearer year is based on
    the maximum extent augusts roughly North East from Miami, usually
    towards Portugal, progression over the last 13 years.
    From the recent SST data for all N Atlantic average to 60 deg N, looks
    like August 2026 will be between the 2024 and 2023 previous .
    Taking the 2024 Aug auerage for 2026 Aug average, projects to years
    2037 to 2043

    Taking the 2023 aug for 2026 Aug average
    2031 to 2049

    Taking the recent 13 Aug sst daily plot for all Aug average in 2026
    2036 to 2043
    so somewhere between 5 and 25 years hence, for much higher possibility
    of extreme extreme sea levels for the UK, most likely in August or
    September.
    --
    Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data <http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
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