From Newsgroup: talk.origins

Currently Texas is only claiming one herd under quarantine, but they
have a lot more dairy herds than Utah that is claiming 22 herds under quarantine after being reinfected with the dairy H5N1. I asked Google
why Texas was only claiming one infected herd at this time. Google
responded by claiming that Utah and Idaho were bulk milk tank testing
all their herds, but in Texas testing was voluntary and is only
implemented when the Dairy reports evidence of infection. So I asked if
more dairies in Texas are expected to be infected.

QUOTE:
So Texas has only one dairy under quarantine because they are not
testing all their dairies. Utah identified infected dairies in more than
one county and have 22 herds under quarantine. Is the expectation that
Texas has more than one currently infected dairy, but has not detected
more infections at this time?


Yes, that is exactly the expectation among epidemiologists and public
health experts.

Because Texas primarily relies on voluntary, symptom-driven testing, it
only catches herds where the virus has caused a drastic, highly visible
spike in illness and a plummet in milk production. In the absence of
universal bulk milk testing, mild or asymptomatic infections naturally
escape detection.

The stark difference in quarantine numbers highlights several key
factors supporting the expectation that more infected dairies exist in
Texas:

The Reality of Asymptomatic Spread: Data from states that switched to mandatory universal testing (like Idaho and Utah) proved that H5N1 often
moves quietly. Universal screening routinely uncovers a high percentage
of subclinical infectionsrCoherds where the cows look healthy and milk production appears normal, but the virus is actively shedding into the
bulk milk tanks.

Proximity and Scale: Given the massive footprint of the Texas dairy
industry, experts note that the virus is mathematically unlikely to
isolate itself to a single facility while actively spreading across
multiple counties in smaller dairy states like Utah.

The "Stage" of Surveillance: Under the USDA's National Milk Testing
Strategy, states with confirmed cases are designated as "Affected
States". The epidemiological assumption built into federal surveillance framework is that a single positive clinical case is a strong indicator
of broader, unmapped viral circulation in the surrounding region.

Essentially, the low count in Texas is widely understood to be a
reflection of limited testing, rather than a reflection of a virus-free
state.

If you would like, we can explore:

How the USDA's regional risk stages alter interstate cattle movement requirements for Texas dairies

The specific biosecurity practices epidemiologists recommend to prevent asymptomatic cross-contamination between farms

Let me know how you'd like to proceed.

END QUOTE:

Texas is expected to have more than one infected herd. The number of
infected herds could be very high.

Google noted that Texas was now restricted in interstate cattle
movements because it is now an affected state, so I asked if Texas was restricting cattle movements within the state.

QUOTE:
Since Texas is now an affected state interstate cattle movements are restricted, but is Texas restricting cattle movements between dairies
within the state?


No, Texas is not broadly restricting or requiring pre-movement H5N1
testing for standard commercial dairy cattle moving within the state.

The Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC) maintains a regulatory
structure that separates intrastate (in-state) commerce from interstate (out-of-state) requirements.

Where Restrictions Do Apply Within Texas

Quarantined Herds: The single officially confirmed dairy herd in Texas
is under a strict, mandatory quarantine. No cattle or contaminated
materials are allowed to leave that specific property without explicit authorization from the TAHC Executive Director.

Exhibitions, Shows, and Fairs: Texas does enforce an active Executive
Director Order regarding in-state movement for public events. Any
lactating dairy cow moving intrastate to a fair, show, or exhibition
must test negative via an Influenza A PCR test prior to transit.

Why Standard In-State Movements Remain Open

For routine businessrCosuch as moving heifers, dry cows, or lactating cows between different commercial farms or pastures owned by the same or
different dairies within Texas bordersrCothere is no mandatory H5N1
testing firewall.

The state relies heavily on producer-led biosecurity protocols and
voluntary reporting rather than sweeping regulatory mandates on domestic agricultural transport. Public health and veterinary experts note that
this lack of domestic movement restrictions is a primary vector for why respiratory and mammary-borne viruses like H5N1 can quietly spread
through a state's dairy network before a clinical outbreak triggers an official quarantine.

If you'd like, we can explore:

The specific biosecurity steps the USDA recommends for "affected states"
to voluntarily manage internal cattle transfers

How other states, like California or Ohio, handle intrastate movement
compared to Texas

Let me know what you would find most helpful.

END QUOTE:

Even though it is understood that there are likely more infected herds
in Texas, Texas is not restricting cattle movements within the state.
Texas is only restricting cattle movements from dairies under
quarantine, but they understand that they likely have infected dairies
that are not under quarantine. This means that infected cattle could be spreading the virus to more farms, but this remains unknown because
Texas doesn't want to know if a dairy is infected or not. It sounds
like most of the dairies in the state are going to be reinfected. Utah restricted cattle movements with the first detections, but they did not restrict dairy worker movements and the virus is still spreading. Texas likely has a lot of infected herds at this time, but like Utah they are
not going to know the extent of the infection until they start testing
all the herds.

Why is Texas being allowed to let the dairy virus spread among it's
dairies? Texas also does not restrict dairy worker movements off farms
under quarantine (like Idaho and Utah where the virus continues to
spread to new herds). Not restricting cattle movements likely means
that it is worse in Texas in terms of infected herds.

The more herds infected, the more dairy workers will be infected, and
the more chance that the virus will evolve to better infect humans.

Ron Okimoto

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From Newsgroup: talk.origins

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/business/agriculture/article316648433.html

Over 750 California dairies were infected by the Dairy B3.13 H5N1
influenza, but the state would not disclose the location of the dairies.
Someone sued claiming that the public should know what dairies were infected. Non profit groups claimed that they should be able to assist
dairy workers at infected dairies protect themselves against the virus.

A court has finally ruled that the identity of the dairies should remain secret. This also means that it is going to be impossible to figure out
how the virus spread throughout the state. The USDA does not disclose
the location of the source of confirmed infection. They only list it as
"USA" in the sequence information. This makes epidemiological sequence analysis nearly impossible.

California also had two children with gut infections of the dairy virus
and one of them had only pasteurized dairy products as their contact
with B3.13. California kept the infected dairies secret and allowed
them to keep selling the infected milk because they claimed that pasteurization killed the virus. In late 2024 the CDC put out a report
where they claimed that their research indicated that H5N1 could survive
the most common pasteurization method and remain infective for several
days in refrigerated milk. The FDA claimed that they were going to
check that out, but the project was never completed. The Missouri human patient with an influenza gut infection also only had pasteurized dairy products as their source of infection. A close contact that shared the
home also was infected (had symptoms, but was never tested). News at
the time claimed that they had both consumed the same dairy products,
but nothing was ever done to trace those products back to dairies to see
if they were infected. At the time dairies in Kansas were producing
infected milk.

Ron Okimoto

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