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US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan Trump administration says it is trying to prevent war but raises
eyebrows by calling for commitments from Australia and Japan
Elbridge Colby, right, the under-secretary of defence for policy. The
request for commitments related to a war over Taiwan marks a new demand
from the US -- Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role
they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, in an
effort that has frustrated the two most important American allies in the Indo-Pacific.
Elbridge Colby, under-secretary of defence for policy, has been pushing
the issue in meetings with Japanese and Australian defence officials in
recent months, said five people familiar with the discussions.
The push is his latest effort to convince US allies in the Indo-Pacific
to enhance deterrence and prepare for a potential war over Taiwan.
A US defence official declined to comment about the request related to
Taiwan, but stressed the rCLanimating themerCY of ColbyrCOs discussions with allies was rCLto intensify and accelerate efforts to strengthen deterrence
in a balanced, equitable wayrCY.
The official stressed that the PentagonrCOs efforts were rCLfocused on preventing war, with a strong shield of deterrencerCY.
rCLThat requires strength rCo but it is a simple fact that our allies must also do their part,rCY he said. rCLWe do not seek war. Nor do we seek to dominate China itself. What we are doing is ensuring the United States
and its allies have the military strength to underwrite diplomacy and guarantee peace.rCY
The talks include efforts to persuade allies to raise defence spending
amid rising concern about ChinarCOs threat to Taiwan. But the request for commitments related to a war over the island is a new demand from the US.
rCLConcrete operational planning and exercises that have direct
application to a Taiwan contingency are moving forward with Japan and Australia,rCY said one person. rCLBut this request caught Tokyo and Canberra by surprise because the US itself does not give a blank cheque guarantee
to Taiwan.rCY
The US has long had a policy of rCLstrategic ambiguityrCY under which it
does not say if it would defend the island. Former president Joe Biden
on four occasions deviated from that, saying the US would intervene. But Donald Trump has echoed other presidents in refusing to say what he
would do.
Zack Cooper, an Asia expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said:
rCLIt is very difficult to get allies to provide specifics about what they would do in a Taiwan conflict when they donrCOt know either the scenariorCOs context or AmericarCOs own response.rCY
rCLPresident Trump has not committed to defend Taiwan, so it is
unrealistic for the US to insist on clear commitments from others.rCY
The push has been aimed at Japanese and Australian defence officials,
and not higher levels. A second person said there was a rCLcollective
raising of eyebrowsrCY from representatives in Japan, Australia and other
US allies.
JapanrCOs defence ministry said it was rCLdifficult to answer the
hypothetical question of a rCyTaiwan emergencyrCO.rCY It said any response would rCLbe implemented on an individual and specific basis in accordance
with the constitution, international law, and domestic laws and regulationsrCY.
The Australian embassy in the US did not comment.
ColbyrCOs push follows other actions that have sparked anxiety. The
Financial Times last month reported he was reviewing the Aukus security
deal that will enable Canberra to procure nuclear-powered submarines.
Colby has also urged European militaries to reduce their focus on the Indo-Pacific and focus more on the Euro-Atlantic region. The FT also
reported recently that Japan cancelled a high-profile ministerial
meeting with the US after Colby abruptly increased the US request for
more defence spending.
The Pentagon was forced to defend Colby in recent days after reports he
was responsible for the decision to block weapons for Ukraine, which was shortly afterwards overturned by the president.
But the debate about Taiwan planning comes as Tokyo and Canberra feel
pressure from Trump to boost spending, which allies of Colby say is very important given the rising threat from China in the Indo-Pacific region.
rCLWe are coming to our allies in the Indo-Pacific, very similar to what
the president did in Europe, and saying this is the threat environment,rCY said the US official. rCLObviously, some of these are tough conversations, including on defence spending. But we think it will leave us all in a
better place.rCY
The official said the administration was confident that Japan and
Australia would boost defence spending more quickly than European allies
had.
rCLWe donrCOt think it should rCo nor can it rCo take 20 years. Not just because
it is in our interests, but because it is so much in the Indo-Pacific alliesrCO interests as well.rCY
The situation is particularly sensitive for Japan because the push for
more spending rCo including one from Colby that was publicly rebuked by
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba rCo comes ahead of upper house elections on
July 20.
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The official said the US understood that it had to be sensitive to the political considerations of allies.
rCLThat is something we all have to work through,rCY the official said. rCLItrCOs tough, but things simply must become fairer and more equitable for this to work rCo which it must. That is why we have leadership.rCY
The official said the Pentagon had received rCLpositiverCY indicators on higher spending from Japan and Australia, but stressed that it was
rCLcritical for us all that we see resultsrCY.
Some allies believe Colby is ignoring their concerns in his pursuit for stronger deterrence. The official said that was rCLdemonstrably untruerCY.
rCLWe are investing tremendous amounts of time and energy to work with
allies to find ways to address our shared challenges in ways that leave
us both better off,rCY he said.
Additional reporting by Leo Lewis in Tokyo
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