• Re: World Cup 2026 Sophisticated Prediction Contest

    From Mark@Pammiesheart@yahoo.co.uk to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Aug 3 19:05:24 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Thu, 28 May 2026 13:47:16 -0400, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

    For the moment, the link to the spreadsheet:


    And here is a Twitter/X thread with the final standings, revealed one
    by one in reverse order Eurovision style (or second leg of a skiing
    slalom, if you prefer):

    https://x.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/2079007322697797843?s=20


    If you can't be bothered to read the whole thing, here are the final standings:

    Michael Caley's (he of xG fame) late entry takes first place, ahead of
    Silver Bulletin and Blueshirt. Blueshirt takes first place in the
    Brier standings, while Silver Bulletin is first based on RPS.

    Shoutout to MH and Werner for finishing in the top 10.

    rank_l~e shortname lo~l_rel br~l_rel rps_f~el

    1 Michael Caley 0.277 0.207 0.392
    2 Silver Bulletin 0.273 0.207 0.396
    3 BLUESHIRT 0.273 0.213 0.384
    4 @Fantomen 0.255 0.199 0.378
    5 Polymarket 0.255 0.195 0.380

    6 Almona 0.254 0.200 0.383
    7 Stephen K 0.250 0.198 0.370
    8 MH [Michael Hynes] 0.250 0.160 0.366
    9 Werner Pichler 0.247 0.185 0.379
    10 Stephen Jackson 0.245 0.171 0.371

    11 Datumly WC 0.245 0.174 0.373
    12 Keanu 0.243 0.177 0.375
    13 Konakalab 0.241 0.173 0.354
    14 Serially Uncompetitive 0.238 0.190 0.368
    15 Combo (by Futbolmetrix 0.237 0.196 0.352

    16 Marek 0.235 0.130 0.365
    17 Lntm (by Futbolmetrix) 0.228 0.198 0.332
    18 ELPAIS 0.225 0.160 0.341
    19 Collective Consciousne 0.225 0.171 0.353
    20 Weakest Link (by Futbo 0.224 0.186 0.337

    21 Respecs730 - v2 0.222 0.166 0.339
    22 HybridML 0.220 0.166 0.340
    23 Nick Barlow 0.218 0.135 0.339
    24 Stefan's TM model 0.211 0.178 0.316
    25 Dopemodels.info 0.210 0.110 0.338

    26 Futbolmetrix 0.210 0.157 0.335
    27 Anders T 0.209 0.133 0.327
    28 Bookmaker Consensus 0.202 0.149 0.335
    29 Fifa (by Futbolmetrix) 0.202 0.131 0.320
    30 Elo (by Futbolmetrix) 0.201 0.116 0.317

    31 The Projection Room Fo 0.197 0.140 0.300
    32 Paul Steele 0.193 0.102 0.311
    33 Ethan R 0.187 0.116 0.302
    34 ChatGPT 0.185 0.141 0.304
    35 Econ1 (by Futbolmetrix 0.183 0.157 0.263

    36 Niall W 0.181 0.124 0.309
    37 CES (by Futbolmetrix) 0.175 0.111 0.298
    38 Stefan's Elo model 0.160 0.061 0.283
    39 Between the Pipes 0.157 0.095 0.263
    40 EOKR 0.148 0.088 0.238

    41 Claude - REVISED 0.147 0.087 0.275
    42 Lloo 0.143 0.073 0.258
    43 Jesus Petry 0.141 0.117 0.223
    44 Fortunato 0.089 0.073 0.152
    45 Econ0 (by Futbolmetrix 0.000 -0.037 0.038

    46 Agnostic 0.000 0.000 0.000
    47 Claude -0.823 0.081 0.237



    Here are the top 15 based on the average rank across the three
    systems:


    rankof~s shortname rank_l~e rank_b~r rank_rps
    meanrank

    1 Michael Caley 1 2 2 1.666667
    2 Silver Bulletin 2 3 1 2
    3 BLUESHIRT 3 1 3 2.333333
    4 Almona 6 4 4 4.666667
    5 @Fantomen 4 5 7 5.333333

    6 Polymarket 5 9 5 6.333333
    7 Stephen K 7 6 11 8
    8 Werner Pichler 9 12 6 9
    9 Keanu 12 14 8 11.33333
    10 Datumly WC 11 15 9 11.66667

    11 Serially Uncompetitive 14 10 12 12
    12 Stephen Jackson 10 17 10 12.33333
    13 Combo (by Futbolmetrix 15 8 17 13.33333
    14 MH [Michael Hynes] 8 22 13 14.33333
    15 Konakalab 13 16 15 14.66667




    When did ChatGPT decide to enter? We were supposed to be a team. Was he
    being disloyal, or was this a last minute decision when she realised I
    wasn't going to get back to him/her about it in time for the start of
    the World Cup?
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