From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Sun, 28 Jun 2026 08:31:38 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

Standings after the Round of 32

How are we looking now, has the race already been
decided yet?

I suppose with the top 4 teams according to various
rankings and odds in the semifinal the Bots are looking
good?


Ciao,
Werner
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Sun, 12 Jul 2026 18:04:08 -0000 (UTC), Werner Pichler
<wpichler@gmail.com> wrote:

How are we looking now, has the race already been
decided yet?

No, but almost:

France or England win --> Blueshirt is the champ
Argentina win --> Silver Bulletin is the champ

Spain over England in the final --> Blueshirt
Spain over Argentina in the final --> Silver Bulletin.

So, if you are not a fan of Nate Silver, that's one more reason to
root against Argentina.

This is based on log scoring. The other scoring systems sometimes give different rankings.

I suppose with the top 4 teams according to various
rankings and odds in the semifinal the Bots are looking
good?

You and MH do get some top-10 finishes, depending on the outcome. All
the others are bots. I actually don't know about Blueshirt...there are
too many decimal places in his predictions, makes me think it was
computer generated.




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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 12 Jul 2026 18:04:08 -0000 (UTC), Werner Pichler
<wpichler@gmail.com> wrote:

How are we looking now, has the race already been
decided yet?

No, but almost:

France or England win --> Blueshirt is the champ

Stop the count!

Argentina win --> Silver Bulletin is the champ

Never heard of him!

Spain over England in the final --> Blueshirt
Spain over Argentina in the final --> Silver Bulletin.

So, if you are not a fan of Nate Silver, that's one more
reason to root against Argentina.

This is based on log scoring. The other scoring systems
sometimes give different rankings.

I suppose with the top 4 teams according to various
rankings and odds in the semifinal the Bots are looking
good?

You and MH do get some top-10 finishes, depending on the
outcome. All the others are bots.

Do snakes count as bots?!

I actually don't know about Blueshirt...there are too many
decimal places in his predictions, makes me think it was
computer generated.

Yes, I used a Python algorithm... I couldn't get the red numbers
of the rows / columns to add up once I'd done my bit... I had all
of my entries something something zero zero, or zero zero zero
even (etc.) so I got it adjusted to fit, balance, and tidy up
what I couldn't get Excel to do properly. (Even with the Data
Analysis ToolPak & Solver added.)

The main component of my entry was actually based on data from
a bookmaker's site as I assumed their predictions would be in
the right direction... right direction for them of course! So
that was my starting point... but I suppose even that's based on
a computer algorithm of some description. (What isn't these
days?!)
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Sun, 12 Jul 2026 18:04:08 -0000 (UTC), Werner Pichler
<wpichler@gmail.com> wrote:

I suppose with the top 4 teams according to various
rankings and odds in the semifinal the Bots are looking
good?

I think it's the opposite: bots will in general look
better when there are a lot of surprises. The typical human will
assign 0.01s to the Haitis and Curacaos to make it past the group
stage, and if one of those upsets happen, it's curtains.

But maybe the humans who are still playing this have become so
sophisticated that now our prediction resemble the bots too much.
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Thu, 28 May 2026 13:47:16 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

For the moment, the link to the spreadsheet:

And here is a Twitter/X thread with the final standings, revealed one
by one in reverse order Eurovision style (or second leg of a skiing
slalom, if you prefer):

https://x.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/2079007322697797843?s=20


If you can't be bothered to read the whole thing, here are the final
standings:

Michael Caley's (he of xG fame) late entry takes first place, ahead of
Silver Bulletin and Blueshirt. Blueshirt takes first place in the
Brier standings, while Silver Bulletin is first based on RPS.

Shoutout to MH and Werner for finishing in the top 10.

rank_l~e shortname lo~l_rel br~l_rel rps_f~el

1 Michael Caley 0.277 0.207 0.392
2 Silver Bulletin 0.273 0.207 0.396
3 BLUESHIRT 0.273 0.213 0.384
4 @Fantomen 0.255 0.199 0.378
5 Polymarket 0.255 0.195 0.380

6 Almona 0.254 0.200 0.383
7 Stephen K 0.250 0.198 0.370
8 MH [Michael Hynes] 0.250 0.160 0.366
9 Werner Pichler 0.247 0.185 0.379
10 Stephen Jackson 0.245 0.171 0.371

11 Datumly WC 0.245 0.174 0.373
12 Keanu 0.243 0.177 0.375
13 Konakalab 0.241 0.173 0.354
14 Serially Uncompetitive 0.238 0.190 0.368
15 Combo (by Futbolmetrix 0.237 0.196 0.352

16 Marek 0.235 0.130 0.365
17 Lntm (by Futbolmetrix) 0.228 0.198 0.332
18 ELPAIS 0.225 0.160 0.341
19 Collective Consciousne 0.225 0.171 0.353
20 Weakest Link (by Futbo 0.224 0.186 0.337

21 Respecs730 - v2 0.222 0.166 0.339
22 HybridML 0.220 0.166 0.340
23 Nick Barlow 0.218 0.135 0.339
24 Stefan's TM model 0.211 0.178 0.316
25 Dopemodels.info 0.210 0.110 0.338

26 Futbolmetrix 0.210 0.157 0.335
27 Anders T 0.209 0.133 0.327
28 Bookmaker Consensus 0.202 0.149 0.335
29 Fifa (by Futbolmetrix) 0.202 0.131 0.320
30 Elo (by Futbolmetrix) 0.201 0.116 0.317

31 The Projection Room Fo 0.197 0.140 0.300
32 Paul Steele 0.193 0.102 0.311
33 Ethan R 0.187 0.116 0.302
34 ChatGPT 0.185 0.141 0.304
35 Econ1 (by Futbolmetrix 0.183 0.157 0.263

36 Niall W 0.181 0.124 0.309
37 CES (by Futbolmetrix) 0.175 0.111 0.298
38 Stefan's Elo model 0.160 0.061 0.283
39 Between the Pipes 0.157 0.095 0.263
40 EOKR 0.148 0.088 0.238

41 Claude - REVISED 0.147 0.087 0.275
42 Lloo 0.143 0.073 0.258
43 Jesus Petry 0.141 0.117 0.223
44 Fortunato 0.089 0.073 0.152
45 Econ0 (by Futbolmetrix 0.000 -0.037 0.038

46 Agnostic 0.000 0.000 0.000
47 Claude -0.823 0.081 0.237



Here are the top 15 based on the average rank across the three
systems:


rankof~s shortname rank_l~e rank_b~r rank_rps
meanrank

1 Michael Caley 1 2 2 1.666667
2 Silver Bulletin 2 3 1 2
3 BLUESHIRT 3 1 3 2.333333
4 Almona 6 4 4 4.666667
5 @Fantomen 4 5 7 5.333333

6 Polymarket 5 9 5 6.333333
7 Stephen K 7 6 11 8
8 Werner Pichler 9 12 6 9
9 Keanu 12 14 8 11.33333
10 Datumly WC 11 15 9 11.66667

11 Serially Uncompetitive 14 10 12 12
12 Stephen Jackson 10 17 10 12.33333
13 Combo (by Futbolmetrix 15 8 17 13.33333
14 MH [Michael Hynes] 8 22 13 14.33333
15 Konakalab 13 16 15 14.66667



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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Futbolmetrix wrote:

If you can't be bothered to read the whole thing, here are
the final standings:

Michael Caley's (he of xG fame) late entry takes first place,
ahead of Silver Bulletin and Blueshirt. Blueshirt takes first
place in the Brier standings, while Silver Bulletin is first
based on RPS.

Shoutout to MH and Werner for finishing in the top 10.

rank_l~e shortname lo~l_rel br~l_rel rps_f~el

1 Michael Caley 0.277 0.207 0.392
2 Silver Bulletin 0.273 0.207 0.396
3 BLUESHIRT 0.273 0.213 0.384
4 @Fantomen 0.255 0.199 0.378
5 Polymarket 0.255 0.195 0.380

6 Almona 0.254 0.200 0.383
7 Stephen K 0.250 0.198 0.370
8 MH [Michael Hynes] 0.250 0.160 0.366
9 Werner Pichler 0.247 0.185 0.379
10 Stephen Jackson 0.245 0.171 0.371

11 Datumly WC 0.245 0.174 0.373
12 Keanu 0.243 0.177 0.375
13 Konakalab 0.241 0.173 0.354
14 Serially Uncompetitive 0.238 0.190 0.368
15 Combo (by Futbolmetrix 0.237 0.196 0.352

16 Marek 0.235 0.130 0.365
17 Lntm (by Futbolmetrix) 0.228 0.198 0.332
18 ELPAIS 0.225 0.160 0.341
19 Collective Consciousne 0.225 0.171 0.353
20 Weakest Link (by Futbo 0.224 0.186 0.337

21 Respecs730 - v2 0.222 0.166 0.339
22 HybridML 0.220 0.166 0.340
23 Nick Barlow 0.218 0.135 0.339
24 Stefan's TM model 0.211 0.178 0.316
25 Dopemodels.info 0.210 0.110 0.338

26 Futbolmetrix 0.210 0.157 0.335
27 Anders T 0.209 0.133 0.327
28 Bookmaker Consensus 0.202 0.149 0.335
29 Fifa (by Futbolmetrix) 0.202 0.131 0.320
30 Elo (by Futbolmetrix) 0.201 0.116 0.317

31 The Projection Room Fo 0.197 0.140 0.300
32 Paul Steele 0.193 0.102 0.311
33 Ethan R 0.187 0.116 0.302
34 ChatGPT 0.185 0.141 0.304
35 Econ1 (by Futbolmetrix 0.183 0.157 0.263

36 Niall W 0.181 0.124 0.309
37 CES (by Futbolmetrix) 0.175 0.111 0.298
38 Stefan's Elo model 0.160 0.061 0.283
39 Between the Pipes 0.157 0.095 0.263
40 EOKR 0.148 0.088 0.238

41 Claude - REVISED 0.147 0.087 0.275
42 Lloo 0.143 0.073 0.258
43 Jesus Petry 0.141 0.117 0.223
44 Fortunato 0.089 0.073 0.152
45 Econ0 (by Futbolmetrix 0.000 -0.037 0.038

46 Agnostic 0.000 0.000 0.000
47 Claude -0.823 0.081 0.237

My target - as it was my first SophCon - was to finish
above Agnostic, so job done!

We'll do it all again in four years.

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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Thu, 28 May 2026 13:47:16 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

For the moment, the link to the spreadsheet:

And here is a Twitter/X thread with the final standings, revealed one
by one in reverse order Eurovision style (or second leg of a skiing
slalom, if you prefer):

https://x.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/2079007322697797843?s=20

If you can't be bothered to read the whole thing, here are the final standings:

Michael Caley's (he of xG fame) late entry takes first place, ahead of
Silver Bulletin and Blueshirt. Blueshirt takes first place in the
Brier standings, while Silver Bulletin is first based on RPS.

Shoutout to MH and Werner for finishing in the top 10.

rank_l~e shortname lo~l_rel br~l_rel rps_f~el

1 Michael Caley 0.277 0.207 0.392
2 Silver Bulletin 0.273 0.207 0.396
3 BLUESHIRT 0.273 0.213 0.384
4 @Fantomen 0.255 0.199 0.378
5 Polymarket 0.255 0.195 0.380

6 Almona 0.254 0.200 0.383
7 Stephen K 0.250 0.198 0.370
8 MH [Michael Hynes] 0.250 0.160 0.366
9 Werner Pichler 0.247 0.185 0.379
10 Stephen Jackson 0.245 0.171 0.371

11 Datumly WC 0.245 0.174 0.373
12 Keanu 0.243 0.177 0.375
13 Konakalab 0.241 0.173 0.354
14 Serially Uncompetitive 0.238 0.190 0.368
15 Combo (by Futbolmetrix 0.237 0.196 0.352

16 Marek 0.235 0.130 0.365
17 Lntm (by Futbolmetrix) 0.228 0.198 0.332
18 ELPAIS 0.225 0.160 0.341
19 Collective Consciousne 0.225 0.171 0.353
20 Weakest Link (by Futbo 0.224 0.186 0.337

21 Respecs730 - v2 0.222 0.166 0.339
22 HybridML 0.220 0.166 0.340
23 Nick Barlow 0.218 0.135 0.339
24 Stefan's TM model 0.211 0.178 0.316
25 Dopemodels.info 0.210 0.110 0.338

26 Futbolmetrix 0.210 0.157 0.335
27 Anders T 0.209 0.133 0.327
28 Bookmaker Consensus 0.202 0.149 0.335
29 Fifa (by Futbolmetrix) 0.202 0.131 0.320
30 Elo (by Futbolmetrix) 0.201 0.116 0.317

31 The Projection Room Fo 0.197 0.140 0.300
32 Paul Steele 0.193 0.102 0.311
33 Ethan R 0.187 0.116 0.302
34 ChatGPT 0.185 0.141 0.304
35 Econ1 (by Futbolmetrix 0.183 0.157 0.263

36 Niall W 0.181 0.124 0.309
37 CES (by Futbolmetrix) 0.175 0.111 0.298
38 Stefan's Elo model 0.160 0.061 0.283
39 Between the Pipes 0.157 0.095 0.263
40 EOKR 0.148 0.088 0.238

41 Claude - REVISED 0.147 0.087 0.275
42 Lloo 0.143 0.073 0.258
43 Jesus Petry 0.141 0.117 0.223
44 Fortunato 0.089 0.073 0.152
45 Econ0 (by Futbolmetrix 0.000 -0.037 0.038

46 Agnostic 0.000 0.000 0.000
47 Claude -0.823 0.081 0.237

Here are the top 15 based on the average rank across the three
systems:


rankof~s shortname rank_l~e rank_b~r rank_rps
meanrank

1 Michael Caley 1 2 2 1.666667
2 Silver Bulletin 2 3 1 2
3 BLUESHIRT 3 1 3 2.333333
4 Almona 6 4 4 4.666667
5 @Fantomen 4 5 7 5.333333

6 Polymarket 5 9 5 6.333333
7 Stephen K 7 6 11 8
8 Werner Pichler 9 12 6 9
9 Keanu 12 14 8 11.33333
10 Datumly WC 11 15 9 11.66667

11 Serially Uncompetitive 14 10 12 12
12 Stephen Jackson 10 17 10 12.33333
13 Combo (by Futbolmetrix 15 8 17 13.33333
14 MH [Michael Hynes] 8 22 13 14.33333
15 Konakalab 13 16 15 14.66667

When did ChatGPT decide to enter? We were supposed to be a team. Was he
being disloyal, or was this a last minute decision when she realised I
wasn't going to get back to him/her about it in time for the start of
the World Cup?
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