From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

The whole "best 8 third place teams" is not always easy to predict. In previous world cups with 24 teams (discarding 1982 which had two group stages), we had

1986: Uruguay managed to progress with two draws and a loss and a
terrible goal difference. Hungary missed out with one win (still worth
2 points in those days) and an even worse goal difference (-7). The
other third place team to miss out was N. Ireland on 1 point.

Even with three points for a win, a team with 2 points would still have grabbed the last place (Bulgaria)


1990. Still 2 points for a win. But just one win was not enough for
either Austria or Scotland (in each case their last win until this
edition), and would not have been enough with 3 points for a win. The Netherlands would have edged both of them on goal difference.


1994. 3 points for a win now. But you needed at least a win and a draw
to progress (Italy nabbed the last place) - and Norway actually missed
out on 4 points in 4th place in a very tight group (came down to goals scored). Russia on 3 points and S. Korea on 2 were the victims.


How are things shaping up this time ?

Potential third place teams (among those with 2 games under their belt
and likely to finish third) that could miss out.

Scotland - unlikely to get more than three points and if Brazil get a
few goals, they could easily be eliminated.

Sweden - still have to play Japan so might well end on 3 points, though
their GD should be better than Scotland's. I expect them to scrape through.

Iran - already on two points, but a tough match vs. Egypt remains.
Could be on 3 with even GD, or only on two. I am assuming Belgium will
beat New Zealand, but they might be assuming too much.

Ecuador. 1 point and still have to play Germany. Unlikely to get more
than two points total. Should still manage 3rd place though.

Bosnia. 1 point. If they beat Qatar they should survive. A draw is
possible though.

Will update as more teams get through their second game.




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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Quoting MH in rec.sport.soccer:

Sweden - still have to play Japan so might well end on 3 points, though >their GD should be better than Scotland's. I expect them to scrape through.

I think we need a point against Japan. I fear three won't do in the end.
--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:55:51 +0200, anders t
<anthu_001@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:

Quoting MH in rec.sport.soccer:

Sweden - still have to play Japan so might well end on 3 points, though >>their GD should be better than Scotland's. I expect them to scrape through.

I think we need a point against Japan. I fear three won't do in the end.

My sims (updated after EGY-NZL):

Probability of 3rd place team qualifying with 4 points: 99.86%
(In fact, I have the following teams already qualified in 100% of the
sims, even though they are not mathematically through yet: BRA, CAN,
EGY, JAP, MOR, NED, ESP, SWI)

Probability of 3rd place team qualifying with 3 points: 75.45%
Probability of 3rd place team qualifying with 2 points: 6.77%

Breaking down by goal difference for teams finishing on 3 points ("-5"
stands for "-5 or worse", "5" stands for "5 or more"):

fingd0 | N Mean
---------+--------------------
-5 | 1979 .3496716
-4 | 3167 .4104831
-3 | 7159 .5457466
-2 | 9522 .7163411
-1 | 12649 .8754052
0 | 9399 .9640387
1 | 852 .9835681
2 | 157 1
3 | 30 1
4 | 22 .9545455
5 | 11 1
---------+--------------------
Total | 44947 .7544664
------------------------------

So, finishing on 3 points with 0 GD (Iran with 3 draws, for example)
gets you through 96% of the time. A -1 GD gets you through 87.5% of
the time (if I'm Scotland or Sweden, I would defending a 0-1 defeat).
GD of -2 or -3...it starts to get a bit tense, and worse than that,
you basically have to hope that there are enough groups where the 3rd
placed team finishes with no more than 2 points.







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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Mon, 22 Jun 2026 06:50:31 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:55:51 +0200, anders t
<anthu_001@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:

Quoting MH in rec.sport.soccer:

Sweden - still have to play Japan so might well end on 3 points, though >>>their GD should be better than Scotland's. I expect them to scrape through. >>

I think we need a point against Japan. I fear three won't do in the end.

My sims (updated after EGY-NZL):

Update after JOR-ALG

Probability of 3rd place team qualifying by number of points:

finpts | N Mean
---------+--------------------
1 | 7471 0
2 | 22022 .0553991
3 | 50301 .7672213
4 | 39698 .9995466
5 | 211 1
6 | 297 1
---------+--------------------
Total | 120000 .6666667
------------------------------



Probability of 3rd place team with three points qualifying, by goal difference:

fingd0 | N Mean
---------+--------------------
-5 | 2345 .3334755
-4 | 3495 .4157368
-3 | 7896 .5359676
-2 | 10544 .7359636
-1 | 14889 .9038888
0 | 9531 .9778617
1 | 970 .9917526
2 | 412 .9878641
3 | 154 .9935065
4 | 43 1
5 | 22 1
---------+--------------------
Total | 50301 .7672213
------------------------------


So, things have apparently slightly improved for teams on 3 points and
negative GD. Yesterday 3 pts and -1 GD qualified you 87% of the time,
now it's up to 90%.

I say "apparently", because the numbers above don't take into account
strategic incentives: Germany can field a reserve team vs Ecuador,
AUS-PAR and AUT-ALG have a strong incentive to do a biscotto, a draw
in Bosnia-Qatar will likely eliminate both so they will both go for
the win, etc.

If you just force the following three results: AUS-PAR draw, AUT-ALG
draw, BOS-QAT not draw, the probability of qualifying with 3 points
drops to 63%. And the probability of qualifying with 3 points and a -1
GD drops from 90% to 69%

I think Scotland and Sweden's (and Iran's?) situation is more tenuous
than what it appears.








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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On 2026-06-23 03:46, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Mon, 22 Jun 2026 06:50:31 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:55:51 +0200, anders t
<anthu_001@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:

Quoting MH in rec.sport.soccer:

Sweden - still have to play Japan so might well end on 3 points, though >>>> their GD should be better than Scotland's. I expect them to scrape through.

I think we need a point against Japan. I fear three won't do in the end.

My sims (updated after EGY-NZL):

Update after JOR-ALG

Probability of 3rd place team qualifying by number of points:

finpts | N Mean
---------+--------------------
1 | 7471 0
2 | 22022 .0553991
3 | 50301 .7672213
4 | 39698 .9995466
5 | 211 1
6 | 297 1
---------+--------------------
Total | 120000 .6666667
------------------------------

Probability of 3rd place team with three points qualifying, by goal difference:

fingd0 | N Mean
---------+--------------------
-5 | 2345 .3334755
-4 | 3495 .4157368
-3 | 7896 .5359676
-2 | 10544 .7359636
-1 | 14889 .9038888
0 | 9531 .9778617
1 | 970 .9917526
2 | 412 .9878641
3 | 154 .9935065
4 | 43 1
5 | 22 1
---------+--------------------
Total | 50301 .7672213
------------------------------

So, things have apparently slightly improved for teams on 3 points and negative GD. Yesterday 3 pts and -1 GD qualified you 87% of the time,
now it's up to 90%.

I say "apparently", because the numbers above don't take into account strategic incentives: Germany can field a reserve team vs Ecuador,
AUS-PAR and AUT-ALG have a strong incentive to do a biscotto, a draw
in Bosnia-Qatar will likely eliminate both so they will both go for
the win, etc.

If you just force the following three results: AUS-PAR draw, AUT-ALG
draw, BOS-QAT not draw, the probability of qualifying with 3 points
drops to 63%. And the probability of qualifying with 3 points and a -1
GD drops from 90% to 69%

I think Scotland and Sweden's (and Iran's?) situation is more tenuous
than what it appears.

That was my gut feeling (for Scotland) after the loss to Morocco. Which
was avoidable. Morocco clearer a much better team, and looked impressive
in the first half, but, as they did against Brazil, they faded late in
the game and did allow some respectable scoring chances, as well as some
soft but supportable penalty claims. This ref was no nonsense and I
kind of liked that. But other refs might have given more.











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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Let's go group by group in the order the matches will be played:

B (Jun 24)
Both Bosnia and Qatar know that a draw is useless for them. So a win in
this game is quite likely and we should have a 3rd placed team with 4
points.

C (Jun 24)
Morocco should win and Brazil are fighting for 1st place, therefore it
is likely Scotland stays on 3 points. If anything different happens,
we'll have someone with 4 points in third.

A (Jun 24)
Czechia need a win or they're basically out, the same for South Africa.
But can any of them actually pull it? It's quite likely this group will
have only two teams qualified. Even an upset by the Africans could leave
the third (Korea, in this case) with 3 points and negative GD.

E (Jun 25)
Both Ecuador and Cura|oao need miracle wins. Very similar to group A,
probably only two advance.

F (Jun 25)
Will Japan and Sweden care about next stage's opponent? The third of
this group qualifying depends pretty much on Sweden not losing.
Otherwise all the top three are fine.

D (Jun 25)
Paraguay and Australia will possibly already know at this point if a
draw qualifies both. Paraguay are the ones who anyway can't probably
afford to lose, so they'll likely dictate the pace of the game.

I (Jun 26)
Both Senegal and Iraq need to win big. It's quite possible one of them achieves this (probably Senegal).

H (Jun 26)
Uruguay might know by this point if a draw is enough for them (but not
for sure). Saudis will need a win in any case, so at least them or Cape
Verde should win and qualify. It hangs basically all on what Uruguay
need to or can do.

G (Jun 26)
Belgium might be in Uruguay's situation as above, but will want to win.
Iran, on the other hand, might be content with a draw if it suits them.

L (Jun 27)
Croatia will very probably need just a draw and Ghana haven't been a
very enterprising team. Quite likely three qualify from this group.

K (Jun 27)
Congo DR will need a win and Uzbekistan might need a really, really high scoring win, or might be already out of it, which might influence how
they approach this game.

J (Jun 27)
Biscotto or revenge? Algeria - Austria will be probably all about this
with some desperate bystander hoping for the latter.

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

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