Group A:
CZE-MEX: Mexico is already guaranteed first place, so they could just
roll over and let CZE reach 4 points and qualify. But would they do it
in front of their fans?
Biscotto likelihood: not really a biscotto, and not very likely.
RSA-KOR: a draw would send Korea through, and could be enough for RSA
to clinch third place, but with 2 points and -2 GD, they wouldn't be
going anywhere.
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely.
Group B:
SWI-CAN
A draw sends them both to the second round, with Canada in first. But
both teams are basically through already, so no real incentives for
any shenannigans
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely.
BIH-QAT
A draw doesn't help either of them. Rather, it's one of those matches
where you'll see crazy end to end attacks if the score is tied
approaching the end. 4 points could be enough to see either of the
teams through as abest third.
Biscotto likelihood: not gonna happen
Group C:
SCO-BRA
A draw would almost surely send Scotland through, but would not be
tolerated in Brazil.
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely
MOR-HAI
Haiti is last, Morocco would probably like to secure first place in
the group.
Biscotto likelihood. Zero.
Group D:
TUR - USA
USA is first, Turkey is last. Dead rubber match.
Biscotto likelihood: not relevant
PAR-AUS
Finally! A draw is very likely to send both through, even though
Paraguay may have to sweat a little with their -2 GD. But they will
already know the outcomes of Groups A-C (and, if I'm reading the
schedule correctly, also the outcomes of Groups E and F). It's
possible that at kickoff they will already know that 4 points sends
them to the R32. Plus, getting to the R32 would probably have been a
good outcome for both teams ex-ante.
Biscotto likelihood: very high
Groups E-L to follow.
In article <um0d3l92gsnc1tc8hdh81gv3gm7m626isf@4ax.com>,
Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:
Group A:
CZE-MEX: Mexico is already guaranteed first place, so they could just
roll over and let CZE reach 4 points and qualify. But would they do it
in front of their fans?
Biscotto likelihood: not really a biscotto, and not very likely.
RSA-KOR: a draw would send Korea through, and could be enough for RSA
to clinch third place, but with 2 points and -2 GD, they wouldn't be
going anywhere.
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely.
Group B:
SWI-CAN
A draw sends them both to the second round, with Canada in first. But
both teams are basically through already, so no real incentives for
any shenannigans
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely.
After 11 000 000 Candians watched the game on Saturday,
CMT will aim for top spot.
BIH-QAT
A draw doesn't help either of them. Rather, it's one of those matches
where you'll see crazy end to end attacks if the score is tied
approaching the end. 4 points could be enough to see either of the
teams through as abest third.
Biscotto likelihood: not gonna happen
Group C:
SCO-BRA
A draw would almost surely send Scotland through, but would not be
tolerated in Brazil.
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely
MOR-HAI
Haiti is last, Morocco would probably like to secure first place in
the group.
Biscotto likelihood. Zero.
Group D:
TUR - USA
USA is first, Turkey is last. Dead rubber match.
Biscotto likelihood: not relevant
PAR-AUS
Finally! A draw is very likely to send both through, even though
Paraguay may have to sweat a little with their -2 GD. But they will
already know the outcomes of Groups A-C (and, if I'm reading the
schedule correctly, also the outcomes of Groups E and F). It's
possible that at kickoff they will already know that 4 points sends
them to the R32. Plus, getting to the R32 would probably have been a
good outcome for both teams ex-ante.
Biscotto likelihood: very high
Groups E-L to follow.
On 20/06/2026 14:27, The Doctor wrote:
In article <um0d3l92gsnc1tc8hdh81gv3gm7m626isf@4ax.com>,
Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:
Group A:
CZE-MEX: Mexico is already guaranteed first place, so they could just
roll over and let CZE reach 4 points and qualify. But would they do it
in front of their fans?
Biscotto likelihood: not really a biscotto, and not very likely.
RSA-KOR: a draw would send Korea through, and could be enough for RSA
to clinch third place, but with 2 points and -2 GD, they wouldn't be
going anywhere.
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely.
Group B:
SWI-CAN
A draw sends them both to the second round, with Canada in first. But
both teams are basically through already, so no real incentives for
any shenannigans
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely.
After 11 000 000 Candians watched the game on Saturday,
CMT will aim for top spot.
BIH-QAT
A draw doesn't help either of them. Rather, it's one of those matches
where you'll see crazy end to end attacks if the score is tied
approaching the end. 4 points could be enough to see either of the
teams through as abest third.
Biscotto likelihood: not gonna happen
Group C:
SCO-BRA
A draw would almost surely send Scotland through, but would not be
tolerated in Brazil.
Biscotto likelihood: extremely unlikely
MOR-HAI
Haiti is last, Morocco would probably like to secure first place in
the group.
Biscotto likelihood. Zero.
Group D:
TUR - USA
USA is first, Turkey is last. Dead rubber match.
Biscotto likelihood: not relevant
PAR-AUS
Finally! A draw is very likely to send both through, even though
Paraguay may have to sweat a little with their -2 GD. But they will
already know the outcomes of Groups A-C (and, if I'm reading the
schedule correctly, also the outcomes of Groups E and F). It's
possible that at kickoff they will already know that 4 points sends
them to the R32. Plus, getting to the R32 would probably have been a
good outcome for both teams ex-ante.
Biscotto likelihood: very high
Groups E-L to follow.
Excellent idea for a thread.
Is there a risk of this with the Holland - Sweden match today?
RM--
Group A:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2026 08:29:51 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:
Group A:
Group E:
Standings before MD3
GER 6 9-2 (Q and first place locked)
CIV 3 2-2
ECU 1 1-0
CUW 1 1-7
CUW-CIV
CIV needs to win to guarantee second place, but a draw is likely going
to be enough to see them through. CUW needs a win. A draw with their
GD is totally useless. In normal circumstances this is a zero
probability biscotto, but CUW could be so happy just to get a second
draw in the WC, that I'll upgrade it a bit.
Biscotto likelihood: very unlikely.
ECU-GER
Germany has nothing to play for, while Ecuador is almost surely
through with a win, and almost surely out with anything less than
that. The stereotypically ruthless Germans of old would have just
crushed Ecuador's hopes, but this team?
Biscotto likelihood: somewhat likely, but would it even be a proper
biscotto?
Group F:
NED 4 7-3
JAP 4 6-2
SWE 3 6-6
TUN 0 1-9 (eliminated)
JAP-SWE
A draw qualifies Japan, and Sweden almost for sure, but the Japanese
may have an incentive to go for first place. Or maybe not, especially
since it will be difficult to get beat NED's goal difference against
hapless Tunisia. Also, 1-2 in this group play 2-1 in group C, likely
Brazil and Morocco in some order. Not obvious that you want to finish
first.
Biscotto likelihood: somewhat likely.
TUN - NED
Tunisia playing to salvage some pride, NED playing for first place and avoiding the one between Brazil and Morocco that they view as most threatening.
Biscotto likelihood: not very likely.
CanAt wait until this series gets to Algeria - Austria.
ThereAs a distinct possibility of it becoming the
mother of all biscottos - qualifying out of the group
biscotto, picking and choosing your Round of 32
opponent biscotto, it could even become a make-up
biscotto for an infamous previous biscottoa
Group A:
Group G:
Egypt 4 4-2
Iran 2 2-2
Belgium 2 1-1
New Zealand 1 3-5
EGY-IRN
Egypt is already through virtually, if not mathematically.
Iran has very good chances of making it as a best 3rd place
team with a draw. The winner of the group is looking at a
possible R16 matchup vs the United States, while the runner-up
will have Australia or Paraguay in the R32, and likely
Argentina in the R16. Probably it doesn't matter much for
either Egypt or Iran. Biscotto likelihood: high
All we need to know is if Iran can meet the USA, and when.
On Mon, 22 Jun 2026 14:09:20 GMT, "Blueshirt"
<blueshirt@indigo.news> wrote:
All we need to know is if Iran can meet the USA, and when.
I have it with a 4% probability in Match 94 (Round of 16, July
6 in Seattle). Also a 0.01% probabilty that they meet in the
final, and a 0.06% probability that they meet in the
third-place match.
CanAt wait until this series gets to Algeria - Austria.
ThereAs a distinct possibility of it becoming the
mother of all biscottos - qualifying out of the group
biscotto, picking and choosing your Round of 32
opponent biscotto, it could even become a make-up
biscotto for an infamous previous biscottoa
On Sat, 20 Jun 2026 08:29:51 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:
Group A:
Group E:
Standings before MD3
GER 6 9-2 (Q and first place locked)
CIV 3 2-2
ECU 1 1-0
CUW 1 1-7
CUW-CIV
CIV needs to win to guarantee second place, but a draw is likely going
to be enough to see them through. CUW needs a win. A draw with their
GD is totally useless. In normal circumstances this is a zero
probability biscotto, but CUW could be so happy just to get a second
draw in the WC, that I'll upgrade it a bit.
Biscotto likelihood: very unlikely.
Algeria-Austria: still no movements, but we'll see if it changes after >today's matches.
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