From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Maybe you have already noticed this, but I just found out that the first tiebreaker in the group stage is no longer overall goal difference, but head-to-head.

Not only that, FIFA rankings from the most recently published FIFA
Rankings became the last tiebreaker.

According to this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/1u6jor5/fifa_goal_difference_in_all_group_matches_is_no/

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/groups-how-teams-qualify-tie-breakers

===
"Step one
greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned
superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned
greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned
If no decision can be made through this procedure, the criteria below
shall apply as follows to the two or more teams still equal on points:

Step two
superior goal difference in all group matches
greatest number of goals scored in all group matches
highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the
number of yellow and red cards obtained
If no decision can be made through the procedures of step one and two
above, the following shall apply:

Step three
the two or more teams still equal on points shall be ranked according to
the most recent published edition of the FIFA/CocarCaCola MenrCOs World Ranking"
===

So, basically Step 1 is head-to-head, Step 2 is the formerly usual GD
and then goals scored, followed by the fair play score, and Step 3 is
the addition of FIFA Rankings as a tiebreaker.

I admit I have been surprised by this change and I'm not sure what to
think of it. I see some merits when breaking a tie inside a group, in
that the first tiebreaker is not necessarily whether you scored 5 or 7
goals over Cura|oao, although it will come down to that if head-to-head doesn't break the tie (but then, it would anyway in the old system).
Comparing third placed teams across groups doesn't change, in practice,
since there's no possible head-to-head there.

If I understood things correctly, the FIFA rankings they'll use in Step
3 will be the last one published before the WC opening match. I think it
is to avoid resorting to drawing lots, and being the very last
tiebreaker, beyond even the Fair Play score ("conduct score", as they
call it), I find it very unlikely that it comes down to that.

One thing that gets me is how redundantly they word this stuff. Let's
have a look again at Step 1:

"greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned
superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned
greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned"

Please show me whether I'm missing something, but a tie in the "number
of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned"
should imply that goal difference and goals scored in group matches
between the teams concerned should be the same as well! Right?

(plus, what's with the expression "all matches"? A head-to-head on a
single round robin is just one game!)

Pet peeve (or blind spot) aside, let's see how this thing unfolds.
Here's hoping it'll yield some interesting scenarios in the third matchday.


Best regards,

Ll|-o
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Wed, 17 Jun 2026 02:01:41 -0300, Lloo <llb.moura@gmail.com> wrote:

One thing that gets me is how redundantly they word this stuff. Let's
have a look again at Step 1:

"greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned
superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned
greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams >concerned"

Please show me whether I'm missing something, but a tie in the "number
of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned"
should imply that goal difference and goals scored in group matches
between the teams concerned should be the same as well! Right?

The wording becomes relevant in case of a three-way tie. Case in
point, the 2004 Scandinavian Biscotto. Italy-Denmark ended 0-0,
Italy-Sweden 1-1. A 2-2 between Sweden and Denmark qualified both,
because the three teams were tied on points in matches between them (2
points each, given draws in all the three HTH encounters) and goal
difference (0, obviously), but Sweden and Denmark went through because
of more goals in the three-way table.

Pet peeve (or blind spot) aside, let's see how this thing unfolds.
Here's hoping it'll yield some interesting scenarios in the third matchday.

I tend to dislike HTH as a tiebreaker in group phases for two main
reasons:

- The probability of biscottos is greater than zero. Italy-Germany in
Euro 1996 was a famous biscotto that wasn't, because Zola missed a
penalty in the 10th minute. If he had scored, we would have had a
repeat of Gijon 1982. Spain and Croatia in Euro 2012 could have done
the exact identical biscotto to Italy with a 2-2 draw, but played it
straight. I think there was also a case in Euro 2024 in the group with
Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine, but maybe that involved third-placed
teams going through.

- It's a lot more difficult to code correctly for my SophCon bot
entries. And this time I did not take into account the FIFA ranking
tiebreaker: if one of my bots doesn't win the SophCon, that's the
reason!






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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On 2026-06-17 03:57, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 17 Jun 2026 02:01:41 -0300, Ll|-o <llb.moura@gmail.com> wrote:

One thing that gets me is how redundantly they word this stuff. Let's
have a look again at Step 1:

"greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned
superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned
greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams
concerned"

Please show me whether I'm missing something, but a tie in the "number
of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned"
should imply that goal difference and goals scored in group matches
between the teams concerned should be the same as well! Right?

The wording becomes relevant in case of a three-way tie. Case in
point, the 2004 Scandinavian Biscotto. Italy-Denmark ended 0-0,
Italy-Sweden 1-1. A 2-2 between Sweden and Denmark qualified both,
because the three teams were tied on points in matches between them (2
points each, given draws in all the three HTH encounters) and goal
difference (0, obviously), but Sweden and Denmark went through because
of more goals in the three-way table.

Three way ties within groups would only be critical in the event of a
tie for second, third and fourth places. i.e team A on 9 points, the
others all on 2, as an example. That could be biscotto-ripe.

Pet peeve (or blind spot) aside, let's see how this thing unfolds.
Here's hoping it'll yield some interesting scenarios in the third matchday.

I tend to dislike HTH as a tiebreaker in group phases for two main
reasons:

- The probability of biscottos is greater than zero. Italy-Germany in
Euro 1996 was a famous biscotto that wasn't, because Zola missed a
penalty in the 10th minute. If he had scored, we would have had a
repeat of Gijon 1982. Spain and Croatia in Euro 2012 could have done
the exact identical biscotto to Italy with a 2-2 draw, but played it straight. I think there was also a case in Euro 2024 in the group with Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine, but maybe that involved third-placed
teams going through.

- It's a lot more difficult to code correctly for my SophCon bot
entries. And this time I did not take into account the FIFA ranking tiebreaker: if one of my bots doesn't win the SophCon, that's the
reason!

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