From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On 2026-06-14 10:49, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:14:44 -0600, MH <MHnospam@ucalgary.ca> wrote:

What do people think the odds are of:

One steps away from RSS for a couple of days and you all have these
fun threads!

Anyway, almost all these questions can be answered by any of my
Sophcon predictions. But I'll give it a go without looking at the
numbers.

At least one team with 4 points missing the knockout round ?

Quite unlikely. 8%

At least one team with two points making the knockout round?

Very unlikely: 2%

A team with six points finishing 3rd in their group ?

5%

A team with 5 points finishing 3rd ?

I think this can only happen in a case a` la Scandinavian Biscotto
2004. Not very likely: 5%

Team A 1 win, 2 draws
Team B 1 win, 2 draws
Team C 1 win, 2 draws
Team D 3 losses.
Not impossible at all. Yes, it is the 2004 scenario, but the big
differences is the third place team would advance

All the UEFA teams progessing to the KO stage ?

Very very unlikely, but this is already after MD3.
Right now: less than 1%
Pre-tournament: 4%

All the CONMEBOL teams progressing to the KO stage ?

Right now: 5%
Pre-tournament: 10%

None of the hosts progressing to the KO stage ?

Right now: <1%
Pre-tournament: 3%

A former world cup winner (that actually qualified for the WC)

Who can you possibly be thinking about here?

failing
to get to the round of 16? (Has certainly happened multiple times
recently starting with France and Argentina in 2002)

Yes, but how many would have failed to qualify in a 32-team tournament
with the best 5 third-placed teams advancing to the second round?

Right now: 20%
Pre-tournament: 20%

A team winning the world cup without having won a single game in
regulation time ?

Possible, but would be tough (Portugal did that in Euro 2016, right;
but it was only three knockout matches)

5%

I am sure you can add to the list...

We could run this as an SPC, I suppose.

I'll try to come up with answers to all of the questions within the
next few days.

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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Sun, 14 Jun 2026 19:49:02 +0300, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:14:44 -0600, MH <MHnospam@ucalgary.ca> wrote:

Anyway, almost all these questions can be answered by any of my
Sophcon predictions. But I'll give it a go without looking at the
numbers.

I got the following using my preferred "combo" prediction (hopefully
formatting is OK). The first number is the pre-tournament probability,
the second number is the current one (as of the completion of
URU-KSA). I added a Question 8b, where I replace Uruguay a (former WC
winner) with Portugal (one of the 7 teams with probability > 5% based
on prediction markets and collective consciousness)


Questi~d Question p_pret~t
p_live

Q1 At least one team with 4 points missing the knockout round ?
.0455 .0785
Q2 At least one team with 2 points making the knockout round?
.1012 .0635
Q3 A team with six points finishing 3rd in their group ? .2539
.2228
Q4 A team with 5 points finishing 3rd ? .0690
.1045
Q5 All UEFA teams progessing to the KO stage ? .0580
.0273

Q6 All CONMEBOL teams progressing to the KO stage ? .3363
.1376
Q7 None of the hosts progressing to the KO stage ? .0012
.0000
Q8 A former world cup winner failing to qualify for R16 .9912
.9928
Q8b One of the top 7 favorites failing to qualify for the R16
.9734 .9742
Q9 Winning WC without winning a single game in regulation time .
.

Quickie comments (assuming I've done everything correctly)
- The first two probabilities were quite low (as most of us had
guessed), but maybe higher than what I thought. Common fallacy of miscalibrating the probability of at least 1 of 12 very unlikely
events to happen.
- Probabilitiess of 6-6-6-0 and 5-5-5-0 groups quite a bit higher than
what I thought (same fallacy as before)
- UEFA and CONMEBOL have not had good starts
- It's almost a certainty that at least one of the former
champions/top favorites will fail to make the R16 (I had misread the
question and thought it was about the R32)
- Calculating the last probability requires a bit more work, I'll add
it later
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Mon, 15 Jun 2026 22:30:37 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

I got the following using my preferred "combo" prediction (hopefully >formatting is OK).

Not really. Let's try this one:


Question p_pret~t p_live
At least one team with 4 points misses knockout? .0455 .0896
At least one team with 2 points makes knockout? .1012 .0891
A team with six points finishes 3rd in their group ? .2539 .226
A team with 5 points finishes 3rd ? .069 .0925
All UEFA teams progresses to KO stage ? .058 .0326
All CONMEBOL teams progresses to KO stage ? .3363 .1427
None of the hosts progresses to the KO stage ? .0012 0
Former world cup winner fails to qualify for R16 .9912 .9936
One of favorites fails to qualify for the R16 .9734 .9741
Wins WC without winning any game in RT . .





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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:30:02 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Mon, 15 Jun 2026 22:30:37 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

I got the following using my preferred "combo" prediction (hopefully >>formatting is OK).

Not really. Let's try this one:


Question p_pret~t p_live
At least one team with 4 points misses knockout? .0455 .0896
At least one team with 2 points makes knockout? .1012 .0891
A team with six points finishes 3rd in their group ? .2539 .226
A team with 5 points finishes 3rd ? .069 .0925
All UEFA teams progresses to KO stage ? .058 .0326
All CONMEBOL teams progresses to KO stage ? .3363 .1427
None of the hosts progresses to the KO stage ? .0012 0 >Former world cup winner fails to qualify for R16 .9912 .9936
One of favorites fails to qualify for the R16 .9734 .9741
Wins WC without winning any game in RT . .

A little bit better, at least on my end
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On 16/06/2026 08:33, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:30:02 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Mon, 15 Jun 2026 22:30:37 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

I got the following using my preferred "combo" prediction (hopefully
formatting is OK).

Not really. Let's try this one:


Question p_pret~t p_live
At least one team with 4 points misses knockout? .0455 .0896
At least one team with 2 points makes knockout? .1012 .0891
A team with six points finishes 3rd in their group ? .2539 .226
A team with 5 points finishes 3rd ? .069 .0925
All UEFA teams progresses to KO stage ? .058 .0326
All CONMEBOL teams progresses to KO stage ? .3363 .1427
None of the hosts progresses to the KO stage ? .0012 0
Former world cup winner fails to qualify for R16 .9912 .9936
One of favorites fails to qualify for the R16 .9734 .9741
Wins WC without winning any game in RT . .

A little bit better, at least on my end

Here too.


Best regards,

Ll|-o
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

On Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:30:02 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Mon, 15 Jun 2026 22:30:37 -0400, Futbolmetrix
<futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

I got the following using my preferred "combo" prediction (hopefully >>formatting is OK).

Not really. Let's try this one:

Update after match 28 (MEX-KOR)


Question p_pret~t p_live
At least one team with 4 points misses knockout? .0455 .0683
At least one team with 2 points makes knockout? .1012 .0971
A team with six points finishes 3rd in their group ? .2539 .2
A team with 5 points finishes 3rd ? .069 .0862
All UEFA teams progresses to KO stage ? .0579 .0204
All CONMEBOL teams progresses to KO stage ? .3358 .1738
None of the hosts progresses to the KO stage ? .0012 0
Former world cup winner fails to qualify for R16 .9929 .9946
One of favorites fails to qualify for the R16 .9742 .9694
Wins WC without winning any game in RT . .

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