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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 23 February - 01 March 2026

    From SWPC.Webmaster@SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov to rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info on Mon Mar 2 13:00:06 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.radio.amateur.space

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2026 Mar 02 0144 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    23 February - 01 March 2026

    Solar activity was reached moderate after an M2.3 flare at 25/1154
    UTC from Region 4379 (S17, L=205, class/area=Bxo/050 on 26 Feb). A
    Type II radio sweep was also observed on 25 Feb, associated with a
    5-degree filament eruption near S08W27 and a C2.6 flare at 25/0656
    UTC. Modeling of the ejecta from the event suggested possible
    glancing influence at Earth on 28 Feb - 01 Mar. For the remainder of
    the week, activity was observed between low and very low levels.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
    primarily at high levels through the past seven days.

    Geomagnetic field activity was reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
    levels on 23 Feb during the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
    Solar wind speeds increased from ~450 km/s to ~700 km/s. Total
    magnetic field strength peaked around 7 nT, then fell to at or below
    5 nT for the remainder of the outlook period. Active conditions were
    observed over 24-26 Feb and finally to unsettled levels over 27 Feb
    - 01 Mar as solar wind speeds from the coronal hole gradually waned.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    02 March - 28 March 2026

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a change for
    M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the outlook period.
    Elevated probabilities are related to the flare potential of both
    currently observed spot groups on the visible disk as well as the
    potential from regions that are expected to return from the
    Sun's farside.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 02-08 Mar, 11-12 Mar, 15-19 Mar,
    and 21-28 Mar due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent,
    CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at
    normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
    (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions are likely on 21
    Mar; G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 22 Mar; active conditions
    are likely on 03 Mar, 10 Mar, 12 Mar, 14-15 Mar, 20 Mar, and 23-25
    Mar; unsettled conditions are likely on 02 Mar, 04 Mar, 06 Mar,
    08-09 Mar, 11 Mar, 13 Mar, 16-19 Mar, and 26-28 Mar. All elevated
    levels of geomagnetic activity are associated with the anticipated
    influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the
    outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

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