From Newsgroup: rec.radio.amateur.space

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Dec 29 0129 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 December 2025

Solar activity was at low levels with C-flare activity observed over
22-26 Dec. Solar activity reached high levels on 27 Dec when Region
4325 (S09, L=294, class/area=Dao/100 on 27 Dec) produced an M5.1
flare (R2-Moderate), with Type-II radio sweep (788 km/s), at 27/0150
UTC. Solar activity reached moderate levels on 28 Dec when Region
4325 produced an impulsive M1.3/Sf flare (R1-Minor) at 28/2113 UTC,
and Region 4317 (N10, L=09, class/area=Eki/260 on 23 Dec) produced
an M4.2/1f flare (R1), with a 300 sfu Tenflare, at 27/2239 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the week, though no
coronagraph imagery covering the late 28 Dec flare activity was
available at the time of writing.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels each day of the 22-28 Dec period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 22
Dec, with active periods observed on 23-24 Dec, due to positive
polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed
on 25-28 Dec as positive polarity CH HSS influences slowly
diminished.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 December - 24 January 2026

Solar activity is expected to be predominately low through 24 Jan,
with C-class flares expected throughout the outlook period. M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) range from a chance to likely at times
as active regions evolve and rotate on/off the disk. X-class flares
(R3-Strong or greater) range from a slight chance to a chance during
periods of enhanced active region complexity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 29-31 Dec, 03-06 and 14-24 Jan.
Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the 29 Dec-24 Jan period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 01
Jan in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences, and again
over 02-04 Jan following the onset of positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Periods of active conditions are likely on 09-10 and
12-14 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1
(Minor) storming are likely on 17-18 Jan, with active conditions
likely on 19-20 Jan, associated with positive polarity CH HSS
influences.

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