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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 06 - 12 October 2025

    From SWPC.Webmaster@SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov to rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info on Mon Oct 13 13:00:04 2025
    From Newsgroup: rec.radio.amateur.space

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2025 Oct 13 0235 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    06 - 12 October 2025

    Solar activity reached moderate levels on 09 Oct when Region 4236
    (N10, L=62, class/area=Ekc/320 on 04 Oct) produced an M2.0 flare
    (R1-Minor) at 09/1231 UTC; the largest event and sole M-flare of the
    period. Solar activity was at low levels throughout the remainder of
    the period. Region 4246 (N24, L= 290, class/area=Dai/180 on 12 Oct)
    produced several C-flares over 10-12 Oct, along with two
    Earth-directed CMEs. The first CME was associated with coronal
    dimming near AR4246 at around 11/0115 UTC, and the second CME was
    associated with a long-duration C9.6/1f flare at 12/1350 UTC from
    AR4246. The first CME is anticipated to arrive on 15 Oct, and the
    second CME is anticipated to arrive on 16 Oct.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 06-12 Oct.

    Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 06 Oct. Periods of active
    conditions were observed on 07-08 Oct due to the passage of CMEs
    that left the Sun on 03 Oct. Quiet conditions were observed again on
    09 Oct. Active conditions were observed on 10 Oct, with periods of
    G1 (Minor) storming observed on 11-12 Oct, due to negative polarity
    CH HSS influences and possible embedded transient influences.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    13 October - 08 November 2025

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the period
    with a varying chance for M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 13-19, 21-24, and 28 Oct-08 Nov.
    Normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of
    the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active and G1
    (Minor) storm levels on 13 Oct, and quiet to unsettled levels on 14
    Oct, in response to waning negative polarity CH HSS influences.
    Periods of active conditions are likely on 15 Oct due to the
    anticipated arrival of a CME from 11 Oct, and again on 16 Oct due to
    the anticipated arrival of a CME from 12 Oct. Periods of G1 (Minor)
    storm levels are likely on 20 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS
    influences. Active conditions are likely over 25-26 Oct in response
    to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 storming are
    likely on 28 and 30 Oct, with periods of G2 (Moderate) storming
    likely on 29 Oct, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1
    (Minor) storms are likely again on 08 Nov due to the anticipated
    influences of another recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet and
    quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the
    remainder of the period.

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