From Newsgroup: rec.radio.amateur.space

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Sep 08 0224 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 September 2025

Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-MInor) over 04 Sep, 05
Sep, and 06 Sep. All M-class flares were attributed to Region 4207
(S29, L=045, class/area=Fhi/390 on 04 Sep). The remaining 17
numbered active regions on the visible disk in the past week were
either quiet or only produced C-class events.

Other significant activity included a CME that erupted from a
filament centered near N12W04 around 04/1945 UTC. This resulted in a
halo CME signature in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Initial
modelling of the event suggested arrival early on the 07 Sep.
Observed arrival was mid-to-late on 06 Sep.

The proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained below the S1
(Minor) threshold.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
levels. G2 conditions observed on 01 Sep were attributed to the
onset of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Aug. Total magnetic field
strength reached a peak of 25 nT and the Bz component was observed
as far south as -23 nT at 02/0000 UTC. Shock arrival at ACE was
observed at 01/2030 UTC, marked by a solar wind speed increase from
~410 km/s to ~645 km/s. A sudden impulse was observed at Earth at
01/2101 UTC. G1 (Minor) activity was observed on 02 and 03 Sep
during the waning phase off the CME. Quiet conditions were observed
over 04-05 Sep. An increase in activity was observed on 06 Sep, with
a G1 period marking the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 04
Sep. Total magnetic field strength reached an initial peak of 21 nT
at 06/1407 UTC. The Bz component rotated as far south as -10 nT. The
solar wind speeds increased to ~700 km/s. The Bz component rotated
northward shortly after which resulted in mostly quiet conditions
ov07 Sep during the waning phase of the CME.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 September - 04 October 2025

Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, with a chance for
moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over the outlook period due to
multiple complex regions both on the visible disk and expected to
return from the Sun's farside.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels over 08-11 Sep and 20-21 Sep due to
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 15
Sep; active conditions are likely on 08 Sep, 14 Sep, 16 Sep, 28-29
Sep, and 03-04 Oct; unsettled conditions are likely on 09-10 Sep,
17-19 Sep, and 30 Sep. All increases in geomagnetic activity are in
anticipated of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.

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