From Newsgroup: rec.radio.amateur.space

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jun 29 0300 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 June 2026

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4475 (S09, L=129,
class/area=Eki/250 on 25 Jun) produced the strongest flare of the
period, a C9.5 flare at 28/2144 UTC. Region 4478 (S06, L=077, class/area=Fkc/BGD on 27 Jun) and 4479 (N16, L=094,
class/area=Dai/160 on 28 Jun) were the most prominent on the visible
disk by area. The remaining numbered spotted regions were mostly
quiet and stable or in gradual decay.

Other activity included CME events, first observed in coronagraph
imagery at ~26/2230 UTC and ~27/1848 UTC, that were analyzed and
likely to have Earth-directed components. The model output suggested
arrival at Earth from the first CME over 29-30 Jun and the second
CME would likely be seen over 01 Jul.

No other Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available
coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
high levels on 26-28 Jun following influence from a negative
polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the summary period was at normal
to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 25 Jun. Active conditions were observed on 24 Jun and
unsettled conditions were observed on 23 and 26-27 Jun. All
increases in geomagnetic activity were due to influence from a
negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds peaked near 700 km/s on
25 Jun. Bt reached a maximum of 15 nT on 24 Jun as the CIR passed
Earth. Wind speeds slowly tapered down to ~400 km/s by end of 28
Jun.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 June - 25 July 2026

Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a chance
for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity, and a slight chance for
R3 (Strong), over 29 Jun - 07 Jul, due primarily to the flare
potential of Regions 4475, 4479, and 4478. Only a slight chance for
M-class activity is anticipated for the remainder of the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
likely to reach high levels over 29 Jun - 07 Jul, 10-13 Jul, and
24-25 Jul. Increases in electron flux are expected due to the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 29-30 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME
that left the Sun on 26 Jun. G1 conditions are again likely on 22
Jul; Active conditions are likely on 01 Jul, 08-09 Jul and 23 Jul;
unsettled conditions are likely on 02 Jul, 10 Jul, 16-17 Jul, and
24-25 Jul. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity after 01 Jul are
due to the anticipated effects of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.

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