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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 04 - 10 May 2026

    From SWPC.Webmaster@SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov to rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info on Mon May 11 13:00:04 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.radio.amateur.space

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2026 May 11 0150 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    04 - 10 May 2026

    Solar activity reached high levels on 10 May due to an M5.7/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 10/1339UTC from Region 4436 (N19, L=330,
    class/area=Dao/beta on 10 May), the strongest of the period.
    Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est. 650 km/s),
    Tenflare (550sfu), and a CME signature first observed in coronagraph
    imagery at 10/1348UTC towards the NE. Analysis and modeling of the
    event is ongoing at the time of this writing.

    Region 4424 (N17, L=192, class/area=Eai/160 on 30 Apr) also produced
    an M-class event with an M1.8 flare (R1-Minor) observed at 04/0133
    UTC. The other 10 numbered active regions on this visible disk were
    either mostly quiet or only produced C-class activity during the
    past week

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels throughout the summary period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
    levels on 04 May and G1 (Minor) levels on 05 May due to influence
    from a passing CME. Total magnetic field strength only reached a
    peak of 11 nT during that time but Bz rotated as far southward as
    -10 nT and was sustained southward from late on 04 May through
    midday on 05 May. Despite the influence of a positive polarity
    coronal hole beginning late on 07 May, the mostly northward Bz
    component results in only quiet to unsettled conditions through the
    end of the reporting period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    11 May - 06 June 2026

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
    M-class activity (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), and a slight chance for
    X-class (R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period due to the flare
    potential of several active regions both currently on the visible
    disk and those expected to return from the Sun's farside.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at high levels on 17-20 May due to influence from a
    recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole. The remainder of the
    outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm levels over 15-17 May; active conditions are likely on 18 May,
    23 May, 27 May, and 03 Jun; unsettled conditions are likely over 11
    May, 13 May, 21-22 May, and 28 May - 31 May. All enhancements in
    geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of
    multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook
    period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

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