• Planar points produce perplexing probability puzzles

    From James Dow Allen@user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid to rec.puzzles on Thu Jul 23 02:53:08 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles


    It has come to my attention that many or most of you are excellent mathematicians, certainly better than me. Thus I dare to post these
    difficult challenges. (I don't think these classics have appeared
    in r.p before.)

    (1) Select three points (uniformly) randomly in the interior of a unit
    square. What is the expected area of the triangle formed by those 3 points?

    (2) What if "unit square" is replaced with "a parallelogram of unit area"?

    There are at least three ways to solve #1:
    (a) a SEXtuple definite integral with Hero's formula inside.
    This may be a popular 21st-century approach with powerful math
    software at one's fingertips.
    (b) Monte Carlo simulation.
    (c) The nice step-by-step approach used by J.J. Sylvester in the 19th century.

    Problem 1 had a triangle inside a quadrilateral. Let's reverse this
    for Problem 3.

    (3) Select four points (uniformly) randomly in the interior of an
    equilateral triangle. What is the probability that the 4 points can be
    ordered such that they form a convex quadrilateral?
    (And what if "equilateral" is struck from the problem statement?)

    (4) Code (or Pseudo-code) a routine to determine whether 4 points in the
    plane can be ordered to form a convex quadrilateral. Kudos if you find
    the trick which yields 3X the speed of a typical solution.

    Cheers,
    James
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  • From David Entwistle@qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz to rec.puzzles on Mon Jul 27 15:38:36 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    On Thu, 23 Jul 2026 02:53:08 GMT, James Dow Allen wrote:

    (1) Select three points (uniformly) randomly in the interior of a unit square. What is the expected area of the triangle formed by those 3
    points?

    Nice problems.

    I have an answer to #1 by method by 1b, but appreciate that isn't a very sophisticated approach.

    I think it would be useful if I could answer the simpler question: given
    two points (uniformly) randomly placed on a unit line. What is the
    expected distance between them? I'll have a think about that.
    --
    David Entwistle
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  • From ram@ram@zedat.fu-berlin.de (Stefan Ram) to rec.puzzles on Mon Jul 27 17:39:27 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    David Entwistle <qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz> wrote or quoted:
    I think it would be useful if I could answer the simpler question: given
    two points (uniformly) randomly placed on a unit line. What is the
    expected distance between them? I'll have a think about that.

    Possible spoiler for this:

    Tvira bar cbvag cynprq havsbezyl enaqbzyl ba n havg yvar sebz mreb
    gb bar, jung vf vgf rkcrpgrq k inyhr? Jryy, V guvax vg vf whfg
    gur vagrteny bs k bire gur havg yvar, nf jr whfg unir gb nirentr
    (fhz) gur cbffvoyr k inyhrf jvgu gur fnzr jrvtug (ol havsbezvgl)
    rireljurer!

    Fb sbe gjb cbvagf cynprq havsbezyl enaqbzyl, bar fubhyq hfr
    gur qbhoyr vagrteny bs gurve qvfgnapr bire /gjb/ havg yvarf.

    Gur pungobg gbyq zr guvf vagrteny vf bar guveq, juvpu znxr
    fbzr frafr tvira gung gur frpbaq cbvag unf yrff fcnpr gb zbir
    njnl sebz gur svefg cbvag pbzcnerq gb gur svefg pnfr jurer gur
    svefg cbvag jnf ng gur bevtva naq gur erfhyg jnf bar unys.

    N fznyy Clguba cebtenz nyfb cevagf inyhrf arne bar guveq.


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  • From Mike Terry@news.dead.person.stones@darjeeling.plus.com to rec.puzzles on Tue Jul 28 02:01:19 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    On 27/07/2026 18:39, Stefan Ram wrote:
    David Entwistle <qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz> wrote or quoted:
    I think it would be useful if I could answer the simpler question: given
    two points (uniformly) randomly placed on a unit line. What is the
    expected distance between them? I'll have a think about that.

    Possible spoiler for this:

    Tvira bar cbvag cynprq havsbezyl enaqbzyl ba n havg yvar sebz mreb
    gb bar, jung vf vgf rkcrpgrq k inyhr? Jryy, V guvax vg vf whfg
    gur vagrteny bs k bire gur havg yvar, nf jr whfg unir gb nirentr
    (fhz) gur cbffvoyr k inyhrf jvgu gur fnzr jrvtug (ol havsbezvgl)
    rireljurer!

    Fb sbe gjb cbvagf cynprq havsbezyl enaqbzyl, bar fubhyq hfr
    gur qbhoyr vagrteny bs gurve qvfgnapr bire /gjb/ havg yvarf.

    Gur pungobg gbyq zr guvf vagrteny vf bar guveq, juvpu znxr
    fbzr frafr tvira gung gur frpbaq cbvag unf yrff fcnpr gb zbir
    njnl sebz gur svefg cbvag pbzcnerq gb gur svefg pnfr jurer gur
    svefg cbvag jnf ng gur bevtva naq gur erfhyg jnf bar unys.

    N fznyy Clguba cebtenz nyfb cevagf inyhrf arne bar guveq.


    Stefan's thinking is all correct, and his chatbot has given him the correct value for the double
    integral. But there is a "trick" to the problem that makes the answer easy! I'd even go so far as
    to say /obvious/... I'm not rot13ing my post because I'm not going to directly specify the trick,
    but only talk about why such a trick might work.

    So first, why is Stefan's double-integral a bit of a pain to compute by hand? It's because the
    distance between points x,y on the unit line is |x-y|, which is either (x-y) or (y-x) depending on
    whether x<y or not. Either expression easy to integrate by hand (e.g. with respect to y if we're
    doing y first), but to use these expressions we need to know whether x<y or not. So this means
    breaking up the ranges we integrate over into smaller subranges where we definitely know either x<y
    or x>=y. Not really that hard (I imagine - I'm sure I've done this at some point, but can't
    remember the experience :)), but certainly fiddly with subcases etc.

    But suppose instead of two points on a unit line we had 7? The "trick" works as well for 7 points,
    giving the expected distance between adjacent points. It can do this by utilising a symmetry in the
    problem where we can argue that the value we get for adjacent points x_1,x_2 applies equally for
    x_2,x_3 etc., and we can add all the (equal) expectations together to get an obvious total. Well,
    this doesn't quite work with David's problem exactly as given, because the end-points of the
    interval [0,1] mess things up a bit, and the "trick" is seeing how to look at the problem slightly
    differently (but equivalently) in a more symmetrical manner where the endpoints are no longer special!

    That's enough of a hint (I'd like to think! but happy to spell out more details if asked) just
    knowing that the more general case of n points is "easy" with the trick focusses the mind I think,
    and surprisingly may be easier than just thinking about 2 points.

    [Someone asked for such cases where thinking of an apparently harder version of a problem might
    suggest solutions missed when focussing on a simpler case - maybe this would count as an example?
    Hmm, it was when we were talking about arrangements of 4 points in a plane having just two different
    distances between any pairs of the points, and one of those arrangements is hard to see, but easy to
    see if we're looking for 5 points.]


    Mike.

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  • From James Dow Allen@user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid to rec.puzzles on Tue Jul 28 09:52:02 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles


    Mike Terry <news.dead.person.stones@darjeeling.plus.com> posted:

    On 27/07/2026 18:39, Stefan Ram wrote:
    David Entwistle <qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz> wrote or quoted:
    I think it would be useful if I could answer the simpler question: given >> two points (uniformly) randomly placed on a unit line. What is the
    expected distance between them? I'll have a think about that.

    Possible spoiler for this:

    Tvira bar cbvag cynprq havsbezyl enaqbzyl ba n havg yvar sebz mreb
    gb bar, jung vf vgf rkcrpgrq k inyhr? Jryy, V guvax vg vf whfg
    gur vagrteny bs k bire gur havg yvar, nf jr whfg unir gb nirentr
    (fhz) gur cbffvoyr k inyhrf jvgu gur fnzr jrvtug (ol havsbezvgl)
    rireljurer!

    Fb sbe gjb cbvagf cynprq havsbezyl enaqbzyl, bar fubhyq hfr
    gur qbhoyr vagrteny bs gurve qvfgnapr bire /gjb/ havg yvarf.

    Gur pungobg gbyq zr guvf vagrteny vf bar guveq, juvpu znxr
    fbzr frafr tvira gung gur frpbaq cbvag unf yrff fcnpr gb zbir
    njnl sebz gur svefg cbvag pbzcnerq gb gur svefg pnfr jurer gur
    svefg cbvag jnf ng gur bevtva naq gur erfhyg jnf bar unys.

    N fznyy Clguba cebtenz nyfb cevagf inyhrf arne bar guveq.


    Stefan's thinking is all correct, and his chatbot has given him the correct value for the double
    integral. But there is a "trick" to the problem that makes the answer easy! I'd even go so far as
    to say /obvious/... I'm not rot13ing my post because I'm not going to directly specify the trick,
    but only talk about why such a trick might work.

    So first, why is Stefan's double-integral a bit of a pain to compute by hand? It's because the
    distance between points x,y on the unit line is |x-y|, which is either (x-y) or (y-x) depending on
    whether x<y or not. Either expression easy to integrate by hand (e.g. with respect to y if we're
    doing y first), but to use these expressions we need to know whether x<y or not. So this means
    breaking up the ranges we integrate over into smaller subranges where we definitely know either x<y
    or x>=y. Not really that hard (I imagine - I'm sure I've done this at some point, but can't
    remember the experience :)), but certainly fiddly with subcases etc.

    But suppose instead of two points on a unit line we had 7? The "trick" works as well for 7 points,
    giving the expected distance between adjacent points. It can do this by utilising a symmetry in the
    problem where we can argue that the value we get for adjacent points x_1,x_2 applies equally for
    x_2,x_3 etc., and we can add all the (equal) expectations together to get an obvious total. Well,
    this doesn't quite work with David's problem exactly as given, because the end-points of the
    interval [0,1] mess things up a bit, and the "trick" is seeing how to look at the problem slightly
    differently (but equivalently) in a more symmetrical manner where the endpoints are no longer special!

    That's enough of a hint (I'd like to think! but happy to spell out more details if asked) just
    knowing that the more general case of n points is "easy" with the trick focusses the mind I think,
    and surprisingly may be easier than just thinking about 2 points.

    [Someone asked for such cases where thinking of an apparently harder version of a problem might
    suggest solutions missed when focussing on a simpler case - maybe this would count as an example?
    Hmm, it was when we were talking about arrangements of 4 points in a plane having just two different
    distances between any pairs of the points, and one of those arrangements is hard to see, but easy to
    see if we're looking for 5 points.]


    Mike.


    Bar cebbs vf gb pbawher hc n pvepyr sebz n yvar frtzrag!
    Fvzvyne pbawhevatf cebivqr gur arpxynpr cebbs bs Srezng'f Yvggye Gurberz,
    naq ner nyfb hfrq va n LbhGhor cebbs V yvaxrq gb erpragyl -- gur Yvtugubhfr Cebbs bs Rhyre'f Onfry Vqragvgl.

    VVEP gurer vf n zber fgenvtugsbejneq cebbs bs gur Enz-Greel Gurberz.
    N frpbaq phc bs pbssrr ZVTUG cebibxr zr gb erzrzore gur fvzcyr nethzrag ...
    OHG gung 2aq phc bsgra yrnqf gb urneg cnycvgngvbaf.
    (Fbzrgvzrf V gel Qrpns sbe vgf cynprob rssrpg.)


    Purref,
    Wnzrf
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  • From ram@ram@zedat.fu-berlin.de (Stefan Ram) to rec.puzzles on Tue Jul 28 10:19:02 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    James Dow Allen <user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid> wrote or quoted:
    BUT that 2nd cup often leads to heart palpitations.
    (Sometimes I try Decaf for its placebo effect.)

    This is OT, but heart palpitations can also be caused by food that
    causes flatulence (like onions) by increasing pressure on the heart.

    Coffee is actually very healthy if not exaggerated and restricted to
    the morning, and even decaf still has some of those health effects!

    I asked the chatbot for a fact-check,

    | Your assessment is fully correct and medically accurate.
    |
    | The Gut-Heart Link (Fact-Checked) Gastrointestinal gas from foods
    | like onions can press against the diaphragm and irritate the vagus
    | nerve. This trigger is known as Gastrocardiac Syndrome (or Roemheld
    | Syndrome), which directly causes harmless heart palpitations.
    |
    | Coffee Health Benefits (Fact-Checked) Moderated morning coffee
    | reduces chronic disease and inflammation risks. Recent 2026 studies
    | from institutions like the Texas A&M VMBS confirm that plant-based
    | compounds like chlorogenic acids - not caffeine - drive these
    | benefits, meaning decaf coffee shares these identical protective
    | health effects.
    |
    | Other Avoidable Palpitation Factors
    |
    | Dehydration Low fluid levels thicken blood and force the heart to
    | beat faster and harder.
    |
    | Nicotine/Vaping Acts as a direct chemical stimulant that spikes
    | heart rate and blood pressure.
    |
    | Stress and Anxiety Triggers a sudden release of adrenaline, directly
    | forcing a racing or fluttering heartbeat.
    |
    | OTC Cold Medications Ingredients like pseudoephedrine act as strong
    | cardiovascular stimulants.
    |
    | Electrolyte Imbalance Low potassium or magnesium from heavy sweating
    | disrupts the heart's electrical signals.
    |
    | Other Foods That Cause Flatulence
    |
    | Cruciferous Vegetables Broccoli, cabbage, Brussels sprouts, and
    | cauliflower contain complex, gas-producing sugars.
    |
    | Artificial Sweeteners Sorbitol, xylitol, and mannitol found in
    | sugar-free gum are poorly absorbed by the gut.
    |
    | Dairy Products Milk, soft cheeses, and ice cream cause major gas if
    | you have a mild lactose intolerance.
    |
    | Whole Grains High-fiber bran and barley produce heavy gas when
    | broken down by large intestine bacteria.

    .


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  • From James Dow Allen@user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid to rec.puzzles on Thu Jul 30 07:57:34 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles


    James Dow Allen <user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid> posted:


    (1) Select three points (uniformly) randomly in the interior of a unit square. What is the expected area of the triangle formed by those 3 points?

    (2) What if "unit square" is replaced with "a parallelogram of unit area"?

    Better yet, replace the square with a triangle.

    There are at least three ways to solve #1:
    (a) a SEXtuple definite integral with Hero's formula inside.
    This may be a popular 21st-century approach with powerful math
    software at one's fingertips.
    (b) Monte Carlo simulation.
    (c) The nice step-by-step approach used by J.J. Sylvester in the 19th century.

    Problem 1 had a triangle inside a quadrilateral. Let's reverse this
    for Problem 3.

    (3) Select four points (uniformly) randomly in the interior of an
    equilateral triangle. What is the probability that the 4 points can be ordered such that they form a convex quadrilateral?
    (And what if "equilateral" is struck from the problem statement?)

    Better yet, replace the triangle with a square.
    The answers to #3 and its square version have a curious relationship
    to the wrong and right answers to a dice-rolling bet: You have two chances
    to roll a Six or a Five. How often do you win?


    (4) ...

    I got one or more of these puzzles from IBM's monthly "Ponder This"
    puzzles. Here's a related puzzle, broken into steps:
    https://research.ibm.com/blog/ponder-this-october-2006

    VERY crude, non-rigorous Principles which ease solution include
    [] Expectation (Linear_Foo(Linear_Goo)) = Linear_Foo (Expectation (Linear_Goo))
    [] Probability (A or B) = Prob(A) + Prob(B) if Never(A and B)
    [] Affine Transforms leave area ratios and many probabilities unchanged.


    Cheers,
    James
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  • From David Entwistle@qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz to rec.puzzles on Thu Jul 30 08:23:43 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    On Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:01:19 +0100, Mike Terry wrote:

    Well,
    this doesn't quite work with David's problem exactly as given, because
    the end-points of the interval [0,1] mess things up a bit, and the
    "trick" is seeing how to look at the problem slightly differently (but equivalently) in a more symmetrical manner where the endpoints are no
    longer special!

    Thanks - I got to a solution to my problem eventually and then was struck
    by how obvious and simple it was - once you've seen it ...
    --
    David Entwistle
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  • From ram@ram@zedat.fu-berlin.de (Stefan Ram) to rec.puzzles on Mon Aug 3 14:15:33 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    David Entwistle <qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz> wrote or quoted:
    I think it would be useful if I could answer the simpler question: given
    two points (uniformly) randomly placed on a unit line.

    I think "unit interval" is more common (for [0,1]).

    BTW: In my previous post, I removed the ROT13 from a post of
    James, and then quoted it thinking the ROT13 in this group is
    used for spoilers, and what I quoted was no spoiler. However,
    in hindsight, I think I should, as a general rule, never remove
    ROT13 from someone else's post and then quote it.


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  • From James Dow Allen@user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid to rec.puzzles on Mon Aug 3 20:50:44 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles


    ram@zedat.fu-berlin.de (Stefan Ram) posted:

    David Entwistle <qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz> wrote or quoted:
    I think it would be useful if I could answer the simpler question: given >two points (uniformly) randomly placed on a unit line.

    I think "unit interval" is more common (for [0,1]).

    BTW: In my previous post, I removed the ROT13 from a post of
    James, and then quoted it thinking the ROT13 in this group is
    used for spoilers, and what I quoted was no spoiler. However,
    in hindsight, I think I should, as a general rule, never remove
    ROT13 from someone else's post and then quote it.


    Mo problem. I indulged in the 2nd cuppa today with no palpitations.
    Yay!! (I had a headache; either coffee or Tylenol seems to cure that.)
    However each cup was only a single dose of Nescafe 3-in-1.
    Good coffee-shop coffee is -- what? -- 2-+ times the strength
    of a Nescafe dose?
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  • From David Entwistle@qnivq.ragjvfgyr@ogvagrearg.pbz to rec.puzzles on Tue Aug 4 08:08:59 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    On Mon, 27 Jul 2026 15:38:36 -0000 (UTC), David Entwistle wrote:

    I think it would be useful if I could answer the simpler question: given
    two points (uniformly) randomly placed on a unit line (unit interval).
    What is the
    expected distance between them? I'll have a think about that.

    My solution to the simpler question, which took me a while, but with
    hindsight now seems trivial.

    Take a circle of circumference one. Place three points randomly on the circumference. The average distance between them is one third of the circumference (1/3). Take any of those three points and split the circle
    at that point, unroll it into a straight line. You now have the original problem; to which the answer is one third.
    --
    David Entwistle
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  • From ram@ram@zedat.fu-berlin.de (Stefan Ram) to rec.puzzles on Tue Aug 4 14:43:17 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles

    James Dow Allen <user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid> wrote or quoted:
    Mo problem. I indulged in the 2nd cuppa today with no palpitations.
    Yay!! (I had a headache; either coffee or Tylenol seems to cure that.) >However each cup was only a single dose of Nescafe 3-in-1.
    Good coffee-shop coffee is -- what? -- 2-+ times the strength
    of a Nescafe dose?

    Yes. It might be possible to add pure instant black coffee
    powder to the 3-in-1 cup to increase the strength, but this
    might be too much caffeine then.


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  • From James Dow Allen@user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid to rec.puzzles on Wed Aug 5 11:22:59 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.puzzles


    James Dow Allen <user4353@newsgrouper.org.invalid> posted:


    (I don't think these classics have appeared in r.p before.)

    Question:
    Place four points randomly in the interior of a parallelogram.
    What is the probability that the four points can be ordered to achieve
    a convex quadrilateral?

    The answer and its proof follow a poem provided as spoiler warning space.

    ============= 60 lines of SPOILER WARNING space follow ============ ============= 59 lines of SPOILER WARNING space follow ============ ============= 58 lines of SPOILER WARNING space follow ============
    The first of a Phantom's Fyve Rules from Phantasmagoria, by Lewis Carroll

    (Provided for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
    almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or
    re-use it under the terms at www.gutenberg.org.)

    . rCLMY FirstrCobut donrCOt suppose,rCY he said,
    . . rCLIrCOm setting you a riddlerCo
    . IsrCoif your Victim be in bed,
    . DonrCOt touch the curtains at his head,
    . . But take them in the middle,

    . rCLAnd wave them slowly in and out,
    . . While drawing them asunder;
    . And in a minuterCOs time, no doubt,
    . HerCOll raise his head and look about
    . . With eyes of wrath and wonder.

    . rCLAnd here you must on no pretence
    . . Make the first observation.
    . Wait for the Victim to commence:
    . No Ghost of any common sense
    . . Begins a conversation.

    . [Picture: Ghostly border] rCLIf he should say rCy_How came you here_?rCO
    . . (The way that _you_ began, Sir,)
    . In such a case your course is clearrCo
    . rCy_On the batrCOs back_, _my little dear_!rCO
    . . Is the appropriate answer.

    . rCLIf after this he says no more,
    . . YourCOd best perhaps curtail your
    . ExertionsrCogo and shake the door,
    . And then, if he begins to snore,
    . . YourCOll know the thingrCOs a failure.

    . rCLBy day, if he should be alonerCo
    . . At home or on a walkrCo
    . You merely give a hollow groan,
    . To indicate the kind of tone
    . . In which you mean to talk.

    . rCLBut if you find him with his friends,
    . . The thing is rather harder.
    . In such a case success depends
    . On picking up some candle-ends,
    . . Or butter, in the larder.

    . rCLWith this you make a kind of slide
    . . (It answers best with suet),
    . On which you must contrive to glide,
    . And swing yourself from side to siderCo
    . . One soon learns how to do it.

    ============= END OF SPOILER WARNING ============
    ============= END OF SPOILER WARNING ============
    ============= END OF SPOILER WARNING ============
    ============= END OF SPOILER WARNING ============


    Place four points randomly in the interior of a parallelogram.
    What is the probability that the four points can be ordered to achieve
    a convex quadrilateral?

    The desired probability is 25/36. Proof follows.
    The proof will use
    . . the properties of affine transforms
    . . the identity Mean(f(x)) = f(Mean(x)) when f() is linear.

    We will first derive the area of a random triangle in the interior
    of a parallelogram of unit area.

    1. Facts about affine transforms mean that we can replace the parallelogram with a square, and align the sides of the square along x- and y-axes.
    The corners of the square have (x,y) coordinates (0,0) : (0,1) : (1,1) : (1,0).

    1b. We will place three points in the interior of that square and derive the area of the triangle they form. (From there the quadrilateral convexity probability will quickly follow.)

    2. Place N-1 points randomly on the segment (0,1). The mean location of
    the left-most point will be 1/N. Proof: Obviously true if the perimeter
    of a circle is used instead of a line segment. Simple snip out
    the first point placed on the circle. and (2) follows at once.

    3. Name the three random points from left-most to right-most as A, B, C.
    From (2), the mean x-coordinates of A and C are respectively 1/4 and 3/4. Because all that follows has the simple linear behavior desired we can
    fix those x-coordinates to be the constants 1/4 and 3/4 by the mean/linear identity.

    4. Similarly the top-most and bottom-most among A, B, C will have y-coordinates 3/4 and 1/4. We need never worry about two points sharing the same
    coordinate: This occurs with probability zero and thus can be ignored.

    5. All three of the points thus lie on or in a rectangle of mean area 1/4. Using affine transforms we convert this back to the (0,0)-(0,1)-(1,1)-(1,0) square, remembering to divide areas by 4 at the end.

    6. One point resides at one of the square's corners. Where are the other two points?
    Without loss of generality we need consider only two cases.

    7. One-third of the time point B (whose x-coordinate is between those
    of A and C) will also be the middle point when y-coordinates are considered.
    In this ("difficult") case the three coordinate pairs will be (without loss of generality) (0,1), (1,0) and (x,y) where x+y < 1.

    8. Two-thirds of the time (and without loss of generality) the three points will be (1,1), (x,0) and (0,y). Draw this and see the unit square has been divided
    into 4 triangles with areas (1-x)/2, (1-y)/2, xy/2, and the target whose area we seek.
    The area of the target triangle is therefore 1 - (1-x)/2 - (1-y)/2 - xy/2,
    or (x+y-xy)/2.

    9. Doing a double integral, each over [0,1] of (x+y-xy)/2 produces 3/8.
    This is the same number achieved by the usual "Mean/linear" trick of substituting
    the means x=1/2, y=1/2. This despite that the product xy can introduce non-linearity.
    That the lower bounds of x and y are zero may explain this serendipity,
    but details are left to the reader. The integration is simple enough.

    10. So 2/3 of the time, the triangle's area averages 3/8. Let's complete
    the calculation with the "difficult" case described in (7).

    11. If you don't mind, let's double the triangle's area and divide by 2 at
    the end. Thus we seek the mean area of a triangle whose base is 2 and whose altitude varies from 0 to 1. But the pdf isn't constant; it's maximal when altitude is 0 and disappears at 1. That pdf is given by 2-2h, where h is the altitude; (2h)/2 is the triangle's area. Integrate (2-2h)(h) from
    0 to 1. The integral is (h^2 - 2h^3/3) and the definite integral (1 - 2/3).
    We divide by 2 as promised and finish with 1/6.

    12. At last! The mean area of the triangle sought in (4) is the
    sum of (2/3)(3/8) from (10) and (1/3)(1/6) from (11). Let's divide by 4
    as promised in (4), so the mean area of the triangle sought in (1a) is (2/12)(3/8) + (1/12)(1/6) = 11/144.

    13. That's a nice result, but not what we were originally asked for.
    We want the probability that FOUR random points in the parallelogram's
    interior will form a convex quadrilateral.

    14. Starting with the 3 points A,B,C whose triangular area we just found (11/144), produce a 4th random point D. D lies in the interior of the ABC triangle with probability 11/144. When this happens the quadrilateral ABCD cannot be convex.

    15. Similarly C lies in the interior of ABD also with probability 11/144; and so on for B in ACD and A in BCD. These events are mutually exclusive so
    the combined chance of any such "failure" is 4*11/144.

    16. ABCD will form a CONCAVE quadrilateral if and only if one of the 4 "failures"
    in (15) occurs. the probability that ABCD can be ordered to form a
    convex quadrilateral is therefore 1 - 4*(11/144) = 25/36.

    17. Q
    18. E
    19 D


    Cheers, Gmail @ JamesDowAllen



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