From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

I remember discussing on this forum how 31 against an opponent with a
free drop is generally too good. I also remember Tim saying that the
opponent needs an excellent reply for us to gain market.
However, here I erred by playing on. It's a smallish error by my standards
but not by my standards for this particular match where I played at
a PR of 4.14.
I think that Tim was talking about 2A 1A rather than many even away.
I would be surprised if Tim failed to double here.

Paul

XGID=-a---BD-B--aeE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:3:10:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:3 O:10 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 157 X-O: 3-10/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 56.66% (G:18.18% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.34% (G:9.60% B:0.43%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.339, Double=+1.216

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.962 (-0.038)
Double/Take: +1.216 (+0.216)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 11:31:20rC>PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I remember discussing on this forum how 31 against an opponent with a
free drop is generally too good. I also remember Tim saying that the opponent needs an excellent reply for us to gain market.
However, here I erred by playing on. It's a smallish error by my standards but not by my standards for this particular match where I played at
a PR of 4.14.
I think that Tim was talking about 2A 1A rather than many even away.
I would be surprised if Tim failed to double here.

Paul

XGID=-a---BD-B--aeE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:3:10:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:3 O:10 11 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 157 X-O: 3-10/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 56.66% (G:18.18% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.34% (G:9.60% B:0.43%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.339, Double=+1.216

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.962 (-0.038)
Double/Take: +1.216 (+0.216)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Correction -- "an excellent reply for us to gain market"
should be "an excellent reply for us to cube".
[But I think the context was 2A 1A and that Tim was
correct in this context.]
Paul
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On 12/17/2023 6:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Correction -- "an excellent reply for us to gain market"
should be "an excellent reply for us to cube".
[But I think the context was 2A 1A and that Tim was
correct in this context.]

I'd be pretty surprised if you could find a quote from me that
an opening roll of 31 at 2a1a usually leaves us too good, because
I don't recall ever believing that. (That an opening roll of 31
at 2a1a usually loses our market, sure. It also usually loses our
market at 4a1a, 6a1a, etc.) I've known for a while that it leaves
us too good after the opponent's weakest rolls, such as 63 or 62,
but I wouldn't claim to know all the rolls after which we're TG.

---
Tim Chow

--- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2

From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 1:59:03rC>PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 12/17/2023 6:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Correction -- "an excellent reply for us to gain market"
should be "an excellent reply for us to cube".
[But I think the context was 2A 1A and that Tim was
correct in this context.]

I'd be pretty surprised if you could find a quote from me that
an opening roll of 31 at 2a1a usually leaves us too good, because
I don't recall ever believing that. (That an opening roll of 31
at 2a1a usually loses our market, sure. It also usually loses our
market at 4a1a, 6a1a, etc.) I've known for a while that it leaves
us too good after the opponent's weakest rolls, such as 63 or 62,
but I wouldn't claim to know all the rolls after which we're TG.

---
Tim Chow

It's very possible that I misremembered you. I think you may have said
(in response to my question) that at 2A 1A post-Crawford, if the trailer
starts with a 31, the trailer is match favourite -- the too-good possibility outweighs the market-gaining possibility.
Anyway, I'm sure that whatever you said was correct.
Paul
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