From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

Since I wasn't at a Safari, I was not surprised by Gnu.
But I was surprised by XG.
I considered that I had the game won and needed to maximise
my gammon chances and that XG would would be working to
save the gammon. Consequently, I didn't think that XG would volunteer
a shot. However, the equities which are > -1 indicate that I was too optimistic about the gammon.
I know that the analysis says that the decision to volunteer a shot is too close to call but I don't see the upside of volunteering a shot.
After all, I'm very unlikely to get a gammon if I don't hit anything more.

Paul

XGID=--a-BBCBBB------A--d-ddAb-:2:-1:-1:52:4:4:0:11:10

X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:4 O:4 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O X |
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 123 X-O: 4-4/11
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 52

1. XG Roller+ 6/1 4/2* eq:-0.890
Player: 9.03% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 90.97% (G:12.60% B:0.39%)

2. XG Roller+ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.897 (-0.007)
Player: 8.13% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 91.87% (G:10.91% B:0.36%)

3. XG Roller+ 6/1 3/1 eq:-0.912 (-0.022)
Player: 7.90% (G:0.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 92.10% (G:11.95% B:0.35%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On 12/16/2023 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I know that the analysis says that the decision to volunteer a shot is too close to call but I don't see the upside of volunteering a shot.
After all, I'm very unlikely to get a gammon if I don't hit anything more.

The way I would analyze this position is to start by pretending
that it's DMP. At DMP, your opponent *wants* to get hit, because
if your opponent can anchor, then her winning chances are better
than if she has just a lone checker trapped behind your six-prime.
You can confirm this by playing 6/1 4/2* for your opponent, and
checking that the computer thinks that it would be unlucky for
you to hit from the bar.

You're correct that the downside of hitting is that it leads to
more gammon losses for your opponent. So at a normal score, it's
a delicate tradeoff between wins and gammons.

---
Tim Chow
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