• Hit for tempo? 2

    From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Thu Dec 14 08:55:53 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=-aBABEC-B-a------------cj-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | 10 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 74 O: 55 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Sat Dec 16 20:30:11 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=-aBABEC-B-a------------cj-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | 10 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 74 O: 55 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 21

    We should definitely hit here because O's board is so weak (and it's
    not just "for tempo" since we could even win a gammon here if we manage
    to hit a second checker after a blot-hitting contest). What surprised
    me, though, was that XG recommended volunteering a double shot with
    5/3 2/1*, rather than the prosaic 5/4 3/1*. But it makes sense if we
    think about it. We'd rather make the better board, and getting hit is
    not so bad because of O's weak board. And if we're not hit back, then
    the upside of 5/3 2/1* is considerable.

    1. Rollout-| 5/3 2/1* eq:+0.866
    Player: 85.89% (G:19.35% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 14.11% (G:1.02% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: -#0.005 (+0.861..+0.871) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 5/4 3/1* eq:+0.764 (-0.101)
    Player: 83.67% (G:14.08% B:0.28%)
    Opponent: 16.33% (G:0.70% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: -#0.005 (+0.760..+0.769) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout-| 3/1* 2/1 eq:+0.690 (-0.176)
    Player: 81.82% (G:11.22% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 18.18% (G:0.57% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: -#0.004 (+0.685..+0.694) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout-| 8/7 3/1* eq:+0.667 (-0.199)
    Player: 80.08% (G:13.16% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 19.92% (G:1.30% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: -#0.005 (+0.662..+0.671) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout-| 8/7 5/3 eq:+0.660 (-0.206)
    Player: 81.42% (G:9.56% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 18.58% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: -#0.004 (+0.656..+0.664) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout-| 5/4 5/3 eq:+0.637 (-0.229)
    Player: 81.58% (G:6.78% B:0.13%)
    Opponent: 18.42% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: -#0.004 (+0.633..+0.641) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2