From
Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to
rec.games.backgammon on Sat Dec 16 20:30:11 2023
From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon
XGID=-aBABEC-B-a------------cj-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 74 O: 55 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21
We should definitely hit here because O's board is so weak (and it's
not just "for tempo" since we could even win a gammon here if we manage
to hit a second checker after a blot-hitting contest). What surprised
me, though, was that XG recommended volunteering a double shot with
5/3 2/1*, rather than the prosaic 5/4 3/1*. But it makes sense if we
think about it. We'd rather make the better board, and getting hit is
not so bad because of O's weak board. And if we're not hit back, then
the upside of 5/3 2/1* is considerable.
1. Rollout-| 5/3 2/1* eq:+0.866
Player: 85.89% (G:19.35% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 14.11% (G:1.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: -#0.005 (+0.861..+0.871) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout-| 5/4 3/1* eq:+0.764 (-0.101)
Player: 83.67% (G:14.08% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 16.33% (G:0.70% B:0.00%)
Confidence: -#0.005 (+0.760..+0.769) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout-| 3/1* 2/1 eq:+0.690 (-0.176)
Player: 81.82% (G:11.22% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 18.18% (G:0.57% B:0.00%)
Confidence: -#0.004 (+0.685..+0.694) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout-| 8/7 3/1* eq:+0.667 (-0.199)
Player: 80.08% (G:13.16% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 19.92% (G:1.30% B:0.00%)
Confidence: -#0.005 (+0.662..+0.671) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout-| 8/7 5/3 eq:+0.660 (-0.206)
Player: 81.42% (G:9.56% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 18.58% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Confidence: -#0.004 (+0.656..+0.664) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout-| 5/4 5/3 eq:+0.637 (-0.229)
Player: 81.58% (G:6.78% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 18.42% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
Confidence: -#0.004 (+0.633..+0.641) - [0.0%]
-| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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