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  • Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

    From peps...@gmail.com@pepstein5@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Wed Dec 13 16:16:38 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    Who is the equity favourite after my play?
    Perhaps interesting for those who like to make settlements.

    Paul

    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21

    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Stick Rice@bananaboater315@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Wed Dec 13 16:30:26 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Wednesday, December 13, 2023 at 7:16:40rC>PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Who is the equity favourite after my play?
    Perhaps interesting for those who like to make settlements.

    Paul

    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21
    Not you. Maybe if you had rolled [62] or [61]
    Stick
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Thu Dec 14 08:26:59 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On 12/13/2023 7:16 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Who is the equity favourite after my play?

    After your roll, your raw pip count is 48, and your EPC is probably
    about 10 pips more than that.

    An 8-roll position has an EPC of 57. O's position is a little worse
    than that, but not much worse. For the equity to be equal, the player
    on roll should be about 4 pips behind. So is O's EPC 62 or higher?
    I'd guess no, meaning that O is the equity favorite, but it looks
    close.

    Paul

    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21


    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From peps...@gmail.com@pepstein5@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Thu Dec 14 15:10:41 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 12:30:28rC>AM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Wednesday, December 13, 2023 at 7:16:40rC>PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Who is the equity favourite after my play?
    Perhaps interesting for those who like to make settlements.

    Paul

    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21
    Not you. Maybe if you had rolled [62] or [61]

    Stick
    Hmm. If I remember rightly, XG made me a 0.025 favourite.
    Paul
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From peps...@gmail.com@pepstein5@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Thu Dec 14 15:13:44 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 1:27:02rC>PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 12/13/2023 7:16 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Who is the equity favourite after my play?
    After your roll, your raw pip count is 48, and your EPC is probably
    about 10 pips more than that.

    An 8-roll position has an EPC of 57. O's position is a little worse
    than that, but not much worse. For the equity to be equal, the player
    on roll should be about 4 pips behind. So is O's EPC 62 or higher?
    I'd guess no, meaning that O is the equity favorite, but it looks
    close.
    Paul

    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21
    If it's a close game when you don't consider the cube
    then my cube ownership makes me an equity favourite.
    I didn't do a rollout but I doubt that this is necessary for this position.
    I think XG said my position was 0.025
    Paul
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Stick Rice@bananaboater315@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Thu Dec 14 23:14:03 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 6:13:46rC>PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 1:27:02rC>PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 12/13/2023 7:16 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Who is the equity favourite after my play?
    After your roll, your raw pip count is 48, and your EPC is probably
    about 10 pips more than that.

    An 8-roll position has an EPC of 57. O's position is a little worse
    than that, but not much worse. For the equity to be equal, the player
    on roll should be about 4 pips behind. So is O's EPC 62 or higher?
    I'd guess no, meaning that O is the equity favorite, but it looks
    close.
    Paul

    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21
    If it's a close game when you don't consider the cube
    then my cube ownership makes me an equity favourite.
    I didn't do a rollout but I doubt that this is necessary for this position. I think XG said my position was 0.025

    Paul
    Not sure what you're looking at but not what I'm seeing. You are only a slight equity dog according to XG thanks to cube ownership. Your winning chances are only 42.4%.
    Stick
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Fri Dec 15 09:33:31 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On 12/14/2023 6:13 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    I think XG said my position was 0.025

    XG 4-ply evaluation says -0.025 so maybe you misread the sign?

    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21

    1. 4-ply 2/Off 1/Off eq:-0.025
    Player: 42.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 57.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From peps...@gmail.com@pepstein5@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Sat Dec 16 15:04:51 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Friday, December 15, 2023 at 2:33:35rC>PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 12/14/2023 6:13 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    I think XG said my position was 0.025
    XG 4-ply evaluation says -0.025 so maybe you misread the sign?
    No, I think I read the sign correctly, but simply misremembered.
    I was somehow struck by how close to zero the equities are, but
    I forgot the direction.
    Suppose we switch places and XG takes the underdog side.
    I wonder what sort of skill differential is needed for XG to become
    a favourite even with the disadvantage.
    I would imagine XG is a favourite against anyone with a 5.0 PR or worse
    because there's a lot of skill here and XG will play very close to perfectly.
    A wild guess is that the break even point is 3.5.
    Any other opinions?
    I'll repeat the question. Suppose we turn the board around so that XG takes my side.
    How weak does XG's opponent have to be for XG's greater skill to make XG
    an equity favourite?
    Paul
    XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
    | | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 21
    1. 4-ply 2/Off 1/Off eq:-0.025
    Player: 42.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 57.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2