• Rollout: Hit or play safe?

    From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Tue Dec 12 09:46:00 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=--aBBCCB--A-----bbbbcBba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X O O |
    | O O O | | O O X O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    XG regards every play here to be at least a double whopper, except
    for the hit-and-split play of 21/15 7/2*.

    1. Rollout-| 21/15 7/2* eq:+0.265
    Player: 58.44% (G:19.42% B:0.91%)
    Opponent: 41.56% (G:19.63% B:2.85%)
    Confidence: -#0.009 (+0.257..+0.274) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/1 eq:+0.026 (-0.239)
    Player: 51.34% (G:8.53% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 48.66% (G:6.37% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: -#0.011 (+0.015..+0.037) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout-| 10/4 7/2* eq:-0.020 (-0.285)
    Player: 49.11% (G:14.07% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 50.89% (G:10.11% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: -#0.011 (-0.031..-0.009) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
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