• Too risky to hit?

    From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Mon Mar 11 17:09:04 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=-A-B-ADbC---bB-a-b-ccBb---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O |
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X O | | X X |
    | O X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 128 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Sat Mar 16 05:17:08 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=-A-B-ADbC---bB-a-b-ccBb---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O |
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X O | | X X |
    | O X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 128 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    It is indeed too risky to hit. Hitting would be indicated at gammon go,
    but not for money or even DMP.

    1. Rollout-| 21/18(2) 13/10(2) eq:+0.138
    Player: 54.33% (G:5.94% B:0.15%)
    Opponent: 45.67% (G:4.94% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: -#0.010 (+0.128..+0.148) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 21/18(2) 8/5 6/3 eq:-0.043 (-0.181)
    Player: 49.18% (G:7.99% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 50.82% (G:10.80% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: -#0.011 (-0.054..-0.032) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout-| 21/18 21/15* 8/5 eq:-0.074 (-0.213)
    Player: 48.78% (G:17.11% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 51.22% (G:21.27% B:1.13%)
    Confidence: -#0.012 (-0.087..-0.062) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2