From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

The position below really looked like a pass to me.
So why did I take it?
Because XG hadn't improved much from previous positions
so I reasoned that if it was ND before, it wouldn't be a drop now.
I think it's cheating to use this type of reasoning that I used but
I sometimes get too competitive against XG to resist it.
My cheating seemed vindicated by the analysis which did give
a take (but very thin).
However, it rolled out to a drop which is what it looked like to me
all along.
Cheating attempt failed.
Paul
XGID=-ACCBBB--------AbbbdcAb---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:0 O:0 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 93 O: 82 X-O: 0-0/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 76.43% (G:5.99% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.57% (G:3.33% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.06% (G:5.95% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.94% (G:3.59% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.557, Double=+1.143
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.709 (-0.291)
Double/Take: +1.043 (+0.043)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: -# 0.003 (+0.707..+0.712)
Confidence Double: -# 0.009 (+1.034..+1.052)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 58.7 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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