From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

The following position is a very standard holding game cube decision.
I've heard a lot about when you should double (this is an obvious double)
but not much at all about when you should take.
Yeah, ok ok! I didn't say there wasn't anything written about the take/pass decision. I just said that I haven't read such stuff. Ok?
XG seems somewhat confused about this position with its initial analysis indicating the take (and I did take) but the rollout indicating the drop.
Ok, Tim. Fine --- you don't regard that as being "confused".
Well, "confusion" can have technical meanings -- I believe the term
is used in machine learning for example.
I would like to define "XG confusion" as being a disagreement between
the analysis and rollouts. Is that definition ok? Thanks.
Obviously it's a clear double so you shouldn't "hold it against me" but surprisingly (to me), holding actually appears to be a smaller error
than taking.
I'm not at all surprised by the drop despite my take. The racing lead is massive and
XG has plenty of time to joker into a minimal-contact position.
It's borderlineness makes it a good reference position, it thinketh me. XGID=-----BDBC---bB--cc-eB--b--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:0 O:0 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 138 X-O: 0-0/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 77.94% (G:2.67% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.06% (G:1.62% B:0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.32% (G:2.62% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.68% (G:1.63% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.570, Double=+1.164
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.952 (-0.048)
Double/Take: +1.052 (+0.052)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: -# 0.008 (+0.944..+0.960)
Confidence Double: -# 0.009 (+1.043..+1.060)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 26 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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