From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

XG doubled me in the below position.
Obviously this is an easy take, and I didn't actually believe the double.
So I took Xavier to court, and showed the rollout to the presiding judge.

Who won the court case?

Paul

XGID=-B--a-E-Ca--cBAa-bbe---AA-:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 143 X-O: 0-3/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action



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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On 1/17/2024 1:43 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XG doubled me in the below position.
Obviously this is an easy take, and I didn't actually believe the double.
So I took Xavier to court, and showed the rollout to the presiding judge.

Who won the court case?

Paul

XGID=-B--a-E-Ca--cBAa-bbe---AA-:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 143 X-O: 0-3/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I don't think I would double here, although I can believe that XG would
say that it's a borderline double because of the match score.

---
Tim Chow

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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 1:28:23rC>PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 1/17/2024 1:43 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XG doubled me in the below position.
Obviously this is an easy take, and I didn't actually believe the double. So I took Xavier to court, and showed the rollout to the presiding judge.

Who won the court case?

Paul

XGID=-B--a-E-Ca--cBAa-bbe---AA-:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:3 11 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 143 X-O: 0-3/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I don't think I would double here, although I can believe that XG would
say that it's a borderline double because of the match score.

It is indeed a marginal double. (See below). The main reason I expected
the hold was that I didn't realise how good XG's position was.
If I knew that XG's equity was above 0.65, I wouldn't have been surprised because there is a fair amount of volatility.
Paul
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.92% (G:17.87% B:1.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.08% (G:10.85% B:0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.26% (G:17.86% B:1.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.74% (G:10.65% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.389, Double=+0.832
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.662 (-0.020)
Double/Take: +0.682
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.318)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: -# 0.012 (+0.649..+0.674)
Confidence Double: -# 0.017 (+0.665..+0.698)
Double Decision confidence: 97.1%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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