• Blitz versus prime cube action

    From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Wed Jan 17 09:05:39 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=bBBCB-B--A--b-a--bbdbA-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 112 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Fri Jan 19 10:33:14 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=bBBCB-B--A--b-a--bbdbA-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 112 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Can O take? Two checkers on the bar against a five-point board, with a
    third blot vulnerable to being hit as well, looks like a pretty dire predicament. But X may have some difficulty leaping his back checkers
    over O's prime before he is forced to crunch his board. The rollout
    below says it's a pass, but just barely. Shifting X's spare on his
    3pt to his 2pt causes XG to take (see variant below).

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 63.64% (G:46.08% B:0.79%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.36% (G:7.82% B:0.37%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 63.74% (G:46.55% B:0.63%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.26% (G:7.89% B:0.35%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.748 (-0.252)
    Double/Take: +1.014 (+0.014)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: -# 0.013 (+0.735..+0.761)
    Confidence Double: -# 0.020 (+0.994..+1.033)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=bBCBB-B--A--b-a--bbdbA-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 111 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 62.53% (G:45.18% B:0.73%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 37.47% (G:8.22% B:0.40%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 62.73% (G:45.75% B:0.62%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 37.27% (G:8.32% B:0.43%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.701 (-0.225)
    Double/Take: +0.926
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.074)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: -# 0.014 (+0.686..+0.715)
    Confidence Double: -# 0.021 (+0.905..+0.947)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2