From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

But should I take?
For a bonus, do you think I did take?
For a free bonus, I did actually roll this out.
I know I have a really annoying habit of posting
about positions with no rollout but I saved the
rollout for this one.

Paul

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

---
Tim Chow

--- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2

From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On Wednesday, January 10, 2024 at 10:05:34rC>PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

---
Tim Chow

The net gammons here have to be super negligible. While your advice about taking recubes when losing a gammon is still a possibility is practically sound advice in general, I don't think it really applies here. The gammons are negligible, each player can use all 8 points, the take point on a recube is around that of a normal match score, etc...
As for what Paul should do OtB, enough information wasn't supplied to answer that question. Specifically who or what is your opponent for eg and what is the setting?
Stick
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:10:39rC>PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

On Wednesday, January 10, 2024 at 10:05:34rC>PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

---
Tim Chow

The net gammons here have to be super negligible. While your advice about taking recubes when losing a gammon is still a possibility is practically sound advice in general, I don't think it really applies here. The gammons are negligible, each player can use all 8 points, the take point on a recube is around that of a normal match score, etc...

As for what Paul should do OtB, enough information wasn't supplied to answer that question. Specifically who or what is your opponent for eg and what is the setting?

Stick

Thanks for your very interesting feedback but opponent and setting are given in the question.
I am "Daniel".
Paul
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:05:34rC>AM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

I posted the position because I thought the pass was obvious and was incredulous
that the analysis dinged my pass as a significant error -- the analysis came out as a 0.95 take.
So I rolled it out, expecting to get vindicated which I did as below.
However, I did not expect the pass to be as marginal as it is.
Paul
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.58% (G:11.38% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.42% (G:7.74% B:0.12%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.93% (G:11.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.07% (G:8.24% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.496, Double=+1.123
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.780 (-0.220)
Redouble/Take: +1.049 (+0.049)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: -# 0.006 (+0.774..+0.786)
Confidence Double: -# 0.011 (+1.038..+1.060)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On Friday, January 12, 2024 at 3:34:18rC>PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:10:39rC>PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

On Wednesday, January 10, 2024 at 10:05:34rC>PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

---
Tim Chow

The net gammons here have to be super negligible. While your advice about taking recubes when losing a gammon is still a possibility is practically sound advice in general, I don't think it really applies here. The gammons are negligible, each player can use all 8 points, the take point on a recube is around that of a normal match score, etc...

As for what Paul should do OtB, enough information wasn't supplied to answer that question. Specifically who or what is your opponent for eg and what is the setting?

Stick

Thanks for your very interesting feedback but opponent and setting are given in the question.
I am "Daniel".

Paul

The setting is not given at all. As for the opponent, if I posted a diagram here it would be Grant v. Harvey so I can't very well take who the players are at face value.
Stick
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