From
Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to
rec.games.backgammon on Thu Jan 11 23:12:29 2024
From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon
XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cAAb-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22
Since X is ahead in the pip count, priming didn't seem to me to be the
right game plan. But other than making the bar point, there isn't really anything particularly constructive to do. Given that X can't clean up
his blots, making a broken five-prime at least interferes with the
possibility that O might attack, and escape her back checkers easily
while we're on the bar.
In the variant, X is anchored, and racing is a more viable game plan,
although XG still favors making the bar point.
1. Rollout-| 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.329
Player: 67.45% (G:19.49% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 32.55% (G:9.97% B:0.33%)
Confidence: -#0.009 (+0.320..+0.339) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout-| 20/14 6/4 eq:+0.228 (-0.101)
Player: 65.02% (G:16.80% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 34.98% (G:11.46% B:0.22%)
Confidence: -#0.008 (+0.220..+0.236) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout-| 20/16 13/11(2) eq:+0.221 (-0.108)
Player: 64.69% (G:17.57% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 35.31% (G:11.91% B:0.20%)
Confidence: -#0.009 (+0.213..+0.230) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout-| 20/16 9/5 eq:+0.207 (-0.122)
Player: 64.33% (G:17.08% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 35.67% (G:11.93% B:0.22%)
Confidence: -#0.010 (+0.197..+0.217) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout-| 9/7(3) 6/4 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
Player: 63.00% (G:18.42% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 37.00% (G:11.65% B:0.23%)
Confidence: -#0.009 (+0.185..+0.203) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout-| 9/7(2) 9/5 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
Player: 62.66% (G:18.57% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 37.34% (G:11.02% B:0.20%)
Confidence: -#0.008 (+0.185..+0.202) - [0.0%]
-| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cB-b-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22
1. Rollout-| 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.464
Player: 72.83% (G:14.65% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 27.17% (G:4.63% B:0.11%)
Confidence: -#0.007 (+0.457..+0.471) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout-| 20/16(2) eq:+0.427 (-0.038)
Player: 72.89% (G:9.86% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 27.11% (G:4.19% B:0.09%)
Confidence: -#0.006 (+0.420..+0.433) - [0.0%]
-| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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