• Double 2's to play

    From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Tue Jan 9 08:57:40 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cAAb-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X X X O |
    | O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 22

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Thu Jan 11 23:12:29 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cAAb-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X X X O |
    | O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 22

    Since X is ahead in the pip count, priming didn't seem to me to be the
    right game plan. But other than making the bar point, there isn't really anything particularly constructive to do. Given that X can't clean up
    his blots, making a broken five-prime at least interferes with the
    possibility that O might attack, and escape her back checkers easily
    while we're on the bar.

    In the variant, X is anchored, and racing is a more viable game plan,
    although XG still favors making the bar point.

    1. Rollout-| 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.329
    Player: 67.45% (G:19.49% B:0.93%)
    Opponent: 32.55% (G:9.97% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: -#0.009 (+0.320..+0.339) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 20/14 6/4 eq:+0.228 (-0.101)
    Player: 65.02% (G:16.80% B:0.73%)
    Opponent: 34.98% (G:11.46% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: -#0.008 (+0.220..+0.236) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout-| 20/16 13/11(2) eq:+0.221 (-0.108)
    Player: 64.69% (G:17.57% B:0.83%)
    Opponent: 35.31% (G:11.91% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: -#0.009 (+0.213..+0.230) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout-| 20/16 9/5 eq:+0.207 (-0.122)
    Player: 64.33% (G:17.08% B:0.72%)
    Opponent: 35.67% (G:11.93% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: -#0.010 (+0.197..+0.217) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout-| 9/7(3) 6/4 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
    Player: 63.00% (G:18.42% B:0.79%)
    Opponent: 37.00% (G:11.65% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: -#0.009 (+0.185..+0.203) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout-| 9/7(2) 9/5 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
    Player: 62.66% (G:18.57% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 37.34% (G:11.02% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: -#0.008 (+0.185..+0.202) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cB-b-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O | +---+
    | X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X X X O |
    | O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 134 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 22

    1. Rollout-| 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.464
    Player: 72.83% (G:14.65% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 27.17% (G:4.63% B:0.11%)
    Confidence: -#0.007 (+0.457..+0.471) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 20/16(2) eq:+0.427 (-0.038)
    Player: 72.89% (G:9.86% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 27.11% (G:4.19% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: -#0.006 (+0.420..+0.433) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2