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  • A modest post

    From peps...@gmail.com@pepstein5@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Sat Jan 6 12:23:59 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    Here, I executed a match double accurately.
    For money it would be a massive beaver.
    Intuitively, I was confident in it based on the fact that
    I have a few immediate wins and that losing the chance of
    winning the match from 11A 1A is not much of a loss
    compared to what I have to gain.
    METs can be used to make the computation precise but
    I was just using intuition.
    I'm surprised that holding isn't more of an error than it is.
    BTW, my cube action was perfect in this game -- I had no
    earlier redouble. My PR sucked though because my
    checker play was so atrocious.

    Paul

    XGID=-BC-----------------a-aa--:3:1:1:00:0:2:0:11:10

    X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
    Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X | | 8 |
    | | | X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 8 O: 10 X-O: 0-2/11
    Cube: 8, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in 4-ply
    Player Winning Chances: 32.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 67.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.356, Double=-0.285

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: -0.322 (-0.037)
    Redouble/Take: -0.285
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+1.285)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Sat Jan 6 16:26:18 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On 1/6/2024 3:23 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Here, I executed a match double accurately.

    Nice play!

    BTW, my cube action was perfect in this game -- I had no
    earlier redouble. My PR sucked though because my
    checker play was so atrocious.

    You must have had an earlier redouble to 4. But I guess you mean
    you did not miss any redoubles to 16.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From peps...@gmail.com@pepstein5@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Sat Jan 6 15:17:31 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Saturday, January 6, 2024 at 9:26:21rC>PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 1/6/2024 3:23 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Here, I executed a match double accurately.
    Nice play!
    BTW, my cube action was perfect in this game -- I had no
    earlier redouble. My PR sucked though because my
    checker play was so atrocious.
    You must have had an earlier redouble to 4. But I guess you mean
    you did not miss any redoubles to 16.
    Yes, I meant that I didn't miss any redouble to 16. Getting the cube action right,
    owning the 8 cube, is extremely difficult normally but there's a huge amount of luck involved (luck in correct play that is, rather than luck in result). The luck is
    in making the right guess when you're in coin toss mode and in being faced with simple positions.
    Paul
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