From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

A few years ago (and maybe after that), there was a thread about how much financial liability people are in when they play in chouettes. I can't (or won't)
dig up the exact thread but it was something like: A: "You have to be prepared to lose 200 points." B: "No way, that just doesn't correspond to reality. I've been playing in my chouette for 30 years and the most I've lost is 20 points." [Numbers not remembered but that was the thrust of the debate.]
Ok. Here are the facts:
The typical losses in a theoretical idealised scenario can be obtained by letting the best bots play against each other and looking at the most extreme 1%
or most extreme 5% of outcomes. I'm not sure whether strong chouette
programs have been coded but that would be ideal. Otherwise, a world-class mathgammonician like Tim or Doug Zare could work it out.

Those figures would favour the upper numbers of risk.
Ok, so if the upper numbers are correct. Why is that Joe NiceLife
from PeterPansVille has never lost more than 20 points in a chouette
even though Joe is a weak enough player to lose 11-pointers against
Stick with a probability of > 80%?

The answer is blindingly obvious! No one else in the chouette is properly bankrolled either. So people are using "money management" and making
scared decisions because they can't really afford stakes and making drop
after drop of cubes that are only borderline doubles.

If players are fully bankrolled so that they really can afford to lose any realistic amount (such as 1000 points) and can therefore make what
they deem to be the equity-best decisions, they become huge equity
favourites in money play.

Paul

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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

On December 9, 2023 at 8:32:57rC>AM UTC-7, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Otherwise, a world-class mathgammonician
like Tim or Doug Zare could work it out.

I like your "mathgammonician" and would like
to add others like "mathgamblician" and such.
Can anyone name a mathematician who took
an interest in gamblegammon without taking
also an interest in, (or rather suffering from
the mental illness/addiction of), gambling..?
I really would like to know.
But back to your comment, I think our "Tim
the Mathgiver" is incomparable to Doug Zare
or anyone else of that ilk.
Do you think Zare can predict dice rolls of a
32-bit Mersenne Twister after only 8-9 rolls?
I think not. So, don't you guys insults "our Tim"
by mentioning his name in the same breath as
the likes of Doug Zare.
However, I won't object is you mention Axel as
"our runner-up" "mathgamblician"... ;)
MK
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

I rarely play in a chouette nowadys (I'm soo lazy..) but the last 2 times were +19 and +43 so close and far beyond your 20 point rule and my worst loss was -32 IIRC.
If you loose in a 5 men chouette in the box a doubled gammon you lose already 32 points and that is nothing unusual.
To be prepared for really lousy days I guess 200 is o.k. 100 will do most of the time.
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