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  • Make the 4pt?

    From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Sat Dec 23 09:04:21 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O X |
    | O O | | O X O |
    | O | | O X O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Timothy Chow@tchow12000@yahoo.com to rec.games.backgammon on Mon Dec 25 11:12:58 2023
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O X |
    | O O | | O X O |
    | O | | O X O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    The main alternative to making the 4pt is to cover the bar point and
    jump a back checker out. This might seem to be a close decision, but
    XG says it's not. It would be a different story if there were no good jumping-out play (see variant).

    1. Rollout-| 20/14 9/7 eq:-0.394
    Player: 41.32% (G:8.77% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 58.68% (G:18.60% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.410..-0.378) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.096)
    Player: 38.38% (G:8.14% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.03% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: -#0.015 (-0.506..-0.475) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cBcAA--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O X X |
    | O O | | O X O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout-| 22/16 9/7 eq:-0.486
    Player: 39.68% (G:8.51% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 60.32% (G:21.66% B:0.98%)
    Confidence: -#0.017 (-0.502..-0.469) - [89.5%]

    2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.501 (-0.015)
    Player: 38.86% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 61.14% (G:19.13% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.516..-0.485) - [10.5%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Stick Rice@bananaboater315@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Mon Jan 1 11:32:05 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:13:06rC>AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O X |
    | O O | | O X O |
    | O | | O X O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62
    The main alternative to making the 4pt is to cover the bar point and
    jump a back checker out. This might seem to be a close decision, but
    XG says it's not. It would be a different story if there were no good jumping-out play (see variant).

    1. Rollout-| 20/14 9/7 eq:-0.394
    Player: 41.32% (G:8.77% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 58.68% (G:18.60% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.410..-0.378) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.096)
    Player: 38.38% (G:8.14% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.03% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: -#0.015 (-0.506..-0.475) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cBcAA--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O X X |
    | O O | | O X O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62
    1. Rollout-| 22/16 9/7 eq:-0.486
    Player: 39.68% (G:8.51% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 60.32% (G:21.66% B:0.98%)
    Confidence: -#0.017 (-0.502..-0.469) - [89.5%]

    2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.501 (-0.015)
    Player: 38.86% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 61.14% (G:19.13% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.516..-0.485) - [10.5%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I feel like that was phrased incorrectly. To me it should be 'the main alternative to jumping out and making the bar point is making the 4pt'.
    Stick
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From peps...@gmail.com@pepstein5@gmail.com to rec.games.backgammon on Mon Jan 1 13:58:22 2024
    From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon

    On Monday, January 1, 2024 at 7:32:06rC>PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:13:06rC>AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O X |
    | O O | | O X O |
    | O | | O X O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62
    The main alternative to making the 4pt is to cover the bar point and
    jump a back checker out. This might seem to be a close decision, but
    XG says it's not. It would be a different story if there were no good jumping-out play (see variant).

    1. Rollout-| 20/14 9/7 eq:-0.394
    Player: 41.32% (G:8.77% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 58.68% (G:18.60% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.410..-0.378) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.096)
    Player: 38.38% (G:8.14% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.03% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: -#0.015 (-0.506..-0.475) - [0.0%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cBcAA--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O X X |
    | O O | | O X O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62
    1. Rollout-| 22/16 9/7 eq:-0.486
    Player: 39.68% (G:8.51% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 60.32% (G:21.66% B:0.98%)
    Confidence: -#0.017 (-0.502..-0.469) - [89.5%]

    2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.501 (-0.015)
    Player: 38.86% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 61.14% (G:19.13% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.516..-0.485) - [10.5%]

    -| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I feel like that was phrased incorrectly. To me it should be 'the main alternative to jumping out and making the bar point is making the 4pt'.
    The way Tim phrased it is consistent with the subject header. You consider making the 4 point because that's kind of like the title of the post.
    And then part of that consideration is to consider alternatives to making the 4 point. Ok. So you could argue that his heading should be "Jump out and make the bar point?" But if Tim's question headings always made the best suggestion, the audience would kind of be clued in.
    Paul
    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2