From Newsgroup: rec.games.backgammon
On Monday, January 1, 2024 at 7:32:06rC>PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
On Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:13:06rC>AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
The main alternative to making the 4pt is to cover the bar point and
jump a back checker out. This might seem to be a close decision, but
XG says it's not. It would be a different story if there were no good jumping-out play (see variant).
1. Rollout-| 20/14 9/7 eq:-0.394
Player: 41.32% (G:8.77% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 58.68% (G:18.60% B:0.77%)
Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.410..-0.378) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.096)
Player: 38.38% (G:8.14% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.03% B:0.51%)
Confidence: -#0.015 (-0.506..-0.475) - [0.0%]
-| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cBcAA--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
1. Rollout-| 22/16 9/7 eq:-0.486
Player: 39.68% (G:8.51% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 60.32% (G:21.66% B:0.98%)
Confidence: -#0.017 (-0.502..-0.469) - [89.5%]
2. Rollout-| 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.501 (-0.015)
Player: 38.86% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 61.14% (G:19.13% B:0.63%)
Confidence: -#0.016 (-0.516..-0.485) - [10.5%]
-| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
I feel like that was phrased incorrectly. To me it should be 'the main alternative to jumping out and making the bar point is making the 4pt'.
The way Tim phrased it is consistent with the subject header. You consider making the 4 point because that's kind of like the title of the post.
And then part of that consideration is to consider alternatives to making the 4 point. Ok. So you could argue that his heading should be "Jump out and make the bar point?" But if Tim's question headings always made the best suggestion, the audience would kind of be clued in.
Paul
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