From Newsgroup: rec.aviation.military

I do not know.
But I am leaving 2 endowments to colleges to
fund scholarships, so 4% or 8% makes a difference.

from https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/25/dave-ramseys-brutal-takedown-on-the-4-safe-withdrawal-rule-for-retirees/

Dave RamseyrCOs Brutal Takedown on the 4% rCySaferCO Withdrawal Rule For Retirees
Quick Read

Dave Ramsey advocates 8% annual withdrawals based on S&P 500 (SPY)
returns averaging 10% over the past decade.

The 8% S&P strategy fails during bear markets when withdrawals lock in permanent losses on depleted portfolio balances.

The 4% rule survived stress tests against the Great Depression and 1970s stagflation with balanced portfolios.

Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset's free tool can match
you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today.
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By Austin Smith
Published Feb 25, 8:15AM EST
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and
Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them. Dave RamseyrCOs Brutal Takedown on the 4% rCySaferCO Withdrawal Rule For Retirees
-- 24/7 Wall St.

Dave Ramsey has publicly argued rCo in interviews and on his radio program
rCo that retirees can safely withdraw 8% annually from their portfolios, doubling the traditional 4% rule that has guided retirement planning
since 1994. His reasoning: he believes stock markets average 12% per
year in returns, leaving a 4-percentage-point buffer above withdrawals. Consumer sentiment sits at 52.9, well into recessionary territory,
making questions about retirement income especially urgent.




An 8% withdrawal rate means a retiree with $500,000 saved can pull
$40,000 annually instead of $20,000. That difference transforms
retirement from $20,000 to $40,000 in annual income for millions of
households worried their nest egg wonrCOt stretch far enough.


Where the Math Holds Up
The S&P 500 has historically supported RamseyrCOs optimism rCo long-term returns have consistently exceeded 10% annually over the past decade. A retiree who stayed fully invested in equities and avoided panic-selling
during downturns could plausibly have grown their principal even while
taking 8% withdrawals. The math works, but only under ideal conditions.

The strategy also makes psychological sense for people who feel the 4%
rule forces them to live too conservatively, dying with money they could
have enjoyed.

Where the Strategy Breaks Down
The fatal flaw is sequence of returns risk. A retiree withdrawing 8%
during a bear market locks in losses permanently. If your $500,000
portfolio drops 30% to $350,000 and you still pull $40,000 that year,
yourCOve withdrawn 11.4% of your remaining balance. Recovery becomes
nearly impossible.

Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset's free tool can match
you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today.
Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best
interests. Don't waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)

The 4% rule was stress-tested against the worst 30-year periods in
market history, including the Great Depression and 1970s stagflation. It survived because it assumes a balanced portfolio and builds in margin
for bad timing. RamseyrCOs 8% rule assumes you retire into a bull market
and stay there for three decades.

Current conditions make that assumption shakier. The 10-year Treasury
yields 4.05%, meaning bond returns barely cover the withdrawal rate.
Inflation runs at 2.16% annually, steadily eroding purchasing power. A
retiree withdrawing 8% in this environment has almost no room for error.

A More Durable Withdrawal Strategy for Real Market Conditions
The research behind the 4% rule, published by William Bengen in 1994 and
later validated by the Trinity Study, recommends starting at 4% to 5%, adjusting annually based on portfolio performance, and holding two years
of expenses in cash to avoid forced selling during downturns. RamseyrCOs approach requires willingness to cut spending sharply during bear
markets or return to work if the portfolio falters rCo contingencies that
may not be realistic for many retirees.

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