• White by Default: Bias in Criminal Racial Assignment

    From D. Ray@d@ray to alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,talk.politics.misc,alt.politics.immigration,comp.misc,alt.discrimination on Sat Jul 18 12:43:23 2026
    From Newsgroup: comp.misc


    Misclassification Inflates White Rates 4-6%, Deflates Hispanic Rates
    20-31%: Evidence from 1.5 Million Records

    - We trained a multinomial logistic regression model (k = 18, n = 1.5
    million) using racial probability classes extracted from DeepFace's racial classifier and first and last name racial summary statistics from the US
    census and (Rosenman et al., 2023), achieving 92.76% accuracy in three-race classification (Black, White, Hispanic).

    - A sufficiently accurate linear model trained on biased data learns the
    true signal from noise. Systematic deviations indicate mislabeling by authorities rather than model error.

    - 29% of individuals predicted to be Hispanic were officially classified as White by Department of Corrections authorities.
    This pattern persisted at high model confidence (95-100%), where 22.4% of predicted Hispanics were still assigned as White.

    - Correcting for misclassification increases Hispanic criminal record rates
    by 31%, decreases White rates by 6%, and decreases Black rates by 1%.

    - Bias between other racial pairings was minimal and symmetrical (equal
    numbers of Blacks misclassified as White and vice versa).

    - State-level analysis showed no correlation with political ideology (r =
    0.21, 95% CI: -0.36 to 0.67, p = 0.472), indicating random administrative
    error rather than deliberate bias.

    - The proportion of predicted Hispanics assigned White (r = -0.80, 95% CI: -0.95 to -0.38, p = 0.003, n=11) and the proportion of predicted Whites assigned Hispanic both correlated with Native American ancestry among
    Latinos (r = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.26 to 0.93, p = 0.009, n=11).

    rCa

    <https://www.uncorrelated.xyz/p/white-by-default-systematic-bias>

    <https://archive.ph/O7pld>
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  • From D. Ray@d@ray to alt.politics.immigration,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,talk.politics.misc,comp.misc,alt.discrimination on Sat Jul 18 13:08:54 2026
    From Newsgroup: comp.misc

    D. Ray <d@ray> wrote:

    <https://www.uncorrelated.xyz/p/white-by-default-systematic-bias>

    This incredible project shows that crime stats are much worse than you
    think

    A large-scale analysis of 1.5 million U.S. mugshots shows that roughly 30%
    of people who look and are named Hispanic are officially classified as
    "White" in crime statistics, leading to a systematic undercount of Hispanic crime rates by 20rCo31% and a corresponding overstatement of White rates.

    <https://x.com/uncorrelated_/status/1991295113344225596>

    <https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1991295113344225596.html>

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