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<div>What role will artificial intelligence play? In many ways it is too soon to tell, given uncertainty about the development of the technology. But AI seems much more akin to the internal combustion engine or electricity than a weapon. It is an enabler, a general-purpose technology with a multitude of applications. That makes AI different from, and broader than, a missile, a submarine, or a tank.</div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div>artificial intelligence and the future of power 5 battlegrounds free pdf download</div><div></div><div>DOWNLOAD: https://t.co/moibOtZvW2 </div><div></div><div></div><div>What countries benefit from AI will depend in part on where militarily-relevant innovations come from. Non-military institutions, such as private companies and academic departments, are pushing the boundaries of what is possible in the realm of artificial intelligence. While some AI and robotics companies, such as Boston Dynamics, receive military research and development funding, others, such as DeepMind, do not, and actively reject engaging with military organizations.12 Unlike stealth technology, which has a fundamentally military purpose, artificial intelligence has uses as varied as shopping, agriculture, and stock trading.</div><div></div><div></div><div>It is useful to think about the degree of artificial intelligence as a continuum. On one end are narrow AI applications such as AlphaGo, able to beat the best human Go players in the world. These are machine-learning algorithms designed to do one specific task, with no prospect of doing anything beyond that task. One can imagine narrow AI as relatively advanced forms of autonomous systems, or machines that, once activated, are designed to complete specific tasks or functions.33</div><div></div><div></div><div>My adoption capacity theory provides insight into how developments in AI will affect the balance of power.45 This theory argues that the relative financial and organizational requirements for adopting a military innovation influence the rate of diffusion of that innovation and its impact on the balance of power. Financial considerations include calculating the unit costs of the hardware involved and determining whether the underlying capability is based on commercial or militarily-exclusive technology. Other considerations include assessing the extent to which adopting the innovation requires disrupting the critical task of the military (i.e., what an organization views itself as attempting to achieve) or the status of key organizational elites (for example, fighter pilots in an air force). Given that adoption capacity theory focuses on major military innovations, however, it requires adaptation to be applied to artificial intelligence at present.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Military and economic history suggests that the effect of narrow AI could be quite large, even if suggestions of AI triggering a new industrial revolution are overstated. Adoption capacity theory shows that changes in relative military power become more likely in cases of military innovations that require large organizational changes and the adoption of new operational concepts. Even if the United States, China, and Russia were to end up with similar levels of basic AI capacity over the next decade, the history of military innovations from the phalanx to blitzkrieg suggests it is how they and others use AI that will matter most for the future of military power.</div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div>14 This is based on the Russell and Norvig definition that artificial intelligence is about the construction of artificial rational agents that can perceive and act. See Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig, Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, 3rd ed. (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2009). Also see Calum McClelland, "The Difference Between Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning," Medium.com, Dec. 4, 2017, -difference-between-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-and-deep-learning-3aa67bff5991.</div><div></div><div></div><div>64 Eric Schmidt, "Keynote Address at the Center for a New American Security Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Summit," Center for a New American Security, Nov. 13, 2017, -schmidt-keynote-address-at-the-center-for-a-new-american-security-artificial-intelligence-and-global-security-summit.</div><div></div><div></div><div>66 Tom Simonite, "For Superpowers, Artificial Intelligence Fuels New Global Arms Race," Wired, Sept. 8, 2017, -superpowers-artificial-intelligence-fuels-new-global-arms-race/; Zachary Cohen, "US Risks Losing Artificial Intelligence Arms Race to China and Russia," CNN, Nov. 29, 2017, -military-artificial-intelligence-russia-china/index.html; Julian E. Barnes and Josh Chin, "The New Arms Race in AI," Wall Street Journal, Mar. 2, 2018, -new-arms-race-in-ai-1520009261.</div><div></div><div></div><div>75 Eliran Rubin, "Tiny IDF Unit Is Brains Behind Israeli Army Artificial Intelligence," Haaretz, Aug. 15, 2017, -news/tiny-idf-unit-is-brains-behind-israeli-army-artificial-intelligence-1.5442911; Yaakov Lappin, "Artificial Intelligence Shapes the IDF in Ways Never Imagined," Aglemeiner, Oct. 16, 2017, -intelligence-shapes-the-idf-in-ways-never-imagined/.</div><div></div><div></div><div>127 Tom Simonite, "Defense Secretary James Mattis Envies Silicon Valley's AI Ascent," Wired, Aug. 11, 2017, -mattis-artificial-intelligence-diux/; Gopal Ratnam, "DARPA Chief Touts Artificial Intelligence Efforts," Roll Call, Mar. 1, 2018, -chief-touts-artificial-intelligence-efforts.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Artificial intelligence, also known as AI, is not an easy topic to write about. The technology is developing at a rapid pace in ways that lay audiences struggle to understand. Two new books ably take up the challenge. Scharre is a thoughtful, knowledgeable, and capable guide. He explains why AI matters and charts the areas that will determine which country gets the most out of its investments, focusing on data collection, computing power, talent, and the institutional structures able to harness AI technology to real-world applications, including those in military tactics and strategy. Artificial intelligence is now considered to be one of the most important areas of competition between the United States and China, one in which the United States currently has a lead. That advantage cannot be taken for granted; Scharre urges more cooperation among democracies and recommends export controls to limit Chinese technological development. In this respect, AI poses a test of two systems: the more chaotic and disaggregated U.S. model against the centralized Chinese model. The Chinese government wants to use AI to better engineer social control, and Scharre asks Western AI specialists to avoid becoming complicit in that project.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Scharre enumerates four battlegrounds on which the future of AI will be decided, each of which is described as a surface area of competition between the United States and China: data, compute (or computing hardware), talent, and institutions. Throughout the book, he ties proposed policies back to these four key battlegrounds, which together lay out a program of U.S. leadership in AI.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Artificial intelligence has been a crucial tool for many nation's militaries for years. Now the war in Ukraine is driving innovation. And as that conflict drags on, AI is rolling it is likely to grow. Ali Rogin looks at how militaries are using AI today, and ahead to how it might be used in the future.</div><div></div><div></div><div>More artificial intelligence on the battlefield carries great potential, but also higher risk. Right now Congress is pressing the Pentagon through legislation to invest further and move faster on AI to avoid falling behind on this nimble but critical technology.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Paul Scharre, the vice president and director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how artificial intelligence is reshaping great power competition and intensifying the geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States.</div><div></div><div></div><div>LINDSAY:</div><div></div><div>Welcome to The President's Inbox, a CFR podcast about the foreign policy challenges facing the United States. I'm Jim Lindsay, director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. This week's topic is artificial intelligence in the era of great power competition. With me to discuss artificial intelligence in its role in competition with China is Paul Scharre. Paul is vice president and director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security. He is a former army ranger with multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. He worked in the office of the secretary of defense in the Bush and Obama administrations where he played a leading role in establishing policies on emerging weapons technologies. The Economist named his first book Army of None: Autonomous Weapons in the Future of War as one of the top five books to understand modern warfare. Paul was kind enough to come on The President's Inbox back in 2018 to discuss it. He's now out with a new book Four Battlegrounds: Power in The Age of Artificial Intelligence, which is getting rave reviews. Paul, thanks for coming back on The President's Inbox.</div><div></div><div></div><div>SCHARRE:</div><div></div><div>Yeah, that's a great question. AI is everywhere, but pinning down, what do we mean when we say artificial intelligence is really critical because we've been able to build machines that have a very narrow form of intelligence. They're able to perform various tasks, whether it's generating art images, generating text, doing facial recognition, identifying objects in videos and images better than people in many cases, but they lack the general purpose intelligence that humans have, the ability to learn a whole wide range of tasks.</div><div></div><div></div><div>LINDSAY:</div><div></div><div>Okay, so Four Battlegrounds opens with an epigraph from Russian President Vladimir Putin, let me quote it, "Artificial intelligence is the future not only for Russia, but for all humankind. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world." I take it that you share President Putin's assessment of AI's central importance. Indeed, you write that it is changing global security and power dynamics. How so?</div><div></div><div></div><div>SCHARRE:</div><div></div><div>Artificial intelligence is a general purpose technology, much like electricity or the internal combustion engine or computer networks. And we saw that prior general purpose technologies led to the first and second industrial revolution where nations rose and fell on the global stage based on how rapidly they industrialized, and even the key metrics of power changed. So coal and steel production became key inputs of national power. Oil became a geo-strategic resource that countries were willing to fight wars over, and I think it's the case and we'll see, but it's a hypothesis, that AI is likely to have similarly transformative effects across society and a whole wide range of industries, increasing economic productivity, accelerating scientific progress, and transforming military power.</div><div></div><div> dca57bae1f</div>
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