From Newsgroup: alt.law-enforcement

from https://www.city-journal.org/article/oregon-washington-migration-taxes-regulation

Steven Malanga
Northwest Blues
Oregon and Washington were two of the most popular U.S. destinations
before the tax man arrived.

Photo: Mekdet/Moment via Getty Images

/ From the Magazine / Economy, Finance, and Budgets, States and Cities
Spring 2026
/ Share
A decade ago, Oregon and Washington ranked among the countryrCOs most desirable destinations. Polls and migration data showed that hundreds of thousands of AmericansrCoespecially from California and NevadarCowere moving there. Though reliably Democratic, both states remained politically competitive. The Pacific Northwest offered natural beauty, relatively
moderate taxes, and manageable living costs, helping fuel an economic
boom led by a growing tech sector. As one Portland resident wrote: rCLThe
city combines the delectable slowness of a small town, the conveniences
of a bigger city, and the unspoiled beauty of the Far West.rCY

Starting in the late 2010s, however, both states, led by their largest
cities, began moving sharply left. Government spending surged, taxes and regulations expanded, urban disorder intensified, and personal freedoms narrowed during the Covid lockdowns. The result was a dramatic reversal
in migration patterns. Even as Californians continued to head north,
Oregon and Washington began losing residents to nearby states and
beyond. In the final five years of the 2010s, the two states gained a
net 438,000 domestic migrants; in the first five years of the 2020s,
that figure turned negative, with 12,000 more people leaving than
arriving. Oregon, which led the nation in percentage gains from domestic migration in 2016, ranked among the biggest losers by 2023, along with Washington.

This reversal has coincided with a shift in political direction.
Consider taxes. While left-leaning policymakers deny that high taxes
drive migration, rising levies and outmigration show a clear
correlation. In 2014, a poll revealed that residents of
Democratic-leaning Washington and Oregon were among the least likely to
say that they planned to move. At the time, both states ranked among the nationrCOs more business-friendly environments. Washington, which had no income tax, placed sixth in the Tax FoundationrCOs ranking of state tax regimes for business. Oregon was close behind at 12th, thanks to
relatively low sales and property taxes.

Mid-decade, however, both states lurched left. Oregon, long led by a Democratic governor and senate but a divided house, became fully
Democratic in 2014. Washington followed in 2017, when a special election flipped the state house from Republican to Democratic control. With an increasingly progressive Democratic Party in charge, levies in both
states have climbed sharply.

In 2019, Oregon, already taxing corporate profits, added a business
activity tax on the gross receipts of high-volume firms, including those
with slim profits. The levy generates about $1.5 billion annually.
Oregon now has fallen to 35th on the Tax FoundationrCOs state tax competitiveness index, and its tax burden on businesses is
second-highest in the nation. No wonder, then, that business executives
now place the state in the bottom ten as a location to open or expand operations.

Undermining WashingtonrCOs tax competitiveness took some doing. The state
had long lacked an income tax, after a 1932 state supreme court ruling
deemed such a levy unconstitutional. Voters rejected ten separate
attempts to amend the constitution to allow one. But in 2021, the
legislature approved a capital-gains tax on high earners, which
supporters argued did not violate the courtrCOs rulingrCoeven though such taxes are typically part of an income-tax system. Legislators acted
despite a warning from the Seattle Times, which noted in an editorial:
rCLWith strong revenue projections and operating budgets already
leapingrCoup to around $59 billion in 2021rCo23 from $32 billion just a
decade agorCoitrCOs difficult to justify a brand-new tax.rCY The state supreme court, reversing a lower-court ban, ultimately upheld the levy.
WashingtonrCOs tax climate soon deteriorated: the state fell from the sixth-most favorable tax code in the nation to the sixth-most
burdensome. Business executives now rank Washington among the states
where they are least likely to expand.

High taxes are part of a broader political shift. As levies have risen
in Washington and Oregon, regulations have multiplied, constraining
personal freedom and eroding affordability.

Meantime, social order has deteriorated. During Covid, both states
imposed some of the most stringent rules, including travel restrictions, school closings, and business shutdowns. Their largest cities, Seattle
and Portland, were rocked by sustained rioting and unrest after George FloydrCOs death in Minneapolis in May 2020. In Seattle, police abandoned a precinct in the cityrCOs core, allowing protesters to establish the
so-called Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, which lasted for weeks; several businesses later sued the city for failing to restore order. Protesters likewise seized control of large sections of Portland, turning it, in
the words of one local outlet, into a symbol of rCLliberal cities out of control, besieged by crime and lawlessness.rCY A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland study found that outmigration from Portland and Seattle
increased after the Floyd riots, while in-migration slowed considerably.

Both states have become emblematic of the nationrCOs housing-affordability crisis. For years, as costs rose in places such as California and New
York, Washington and Oregon remained relatively affordable and drew
newcomers. But after the 2008rCo09 mortgage meltdown and recession,
housing construction collapsed nationwide, and in neither state has it
fully recovered. In Oregon, for example, annual housing production still trails pre-2008 levels; in recent years, it has declined despite strong demand. The staterCOs urban growth boundary system, designed to limit
sprawl, concentrate density, and preserve rural land, has further
constrained supply. As a result, Oregon now ranks among the nationrCOs
least competitive housing markets for housing pricesrCoas does Washington. Migrants once sought out these states for affordable homes; these days, theyrCOre heading to Idaho and Montana.

The Pacific Northwest retains important strengths, including its natural beauty and relatively young cities, which have avoided the deep urban
decay that deindustrialization inflicted on much of the Midwest and
Northeast. Some of those advantages still show up in the latest census
data, which indicate an easing of out-migration. But the region is no
longer the talent magnet it was a decade agorCoand its political
leadership shows little sign of having learned from the shift. In
Washington, to take another recent development, Democrats passed a new millionairerCOs tax, apparently convinced that the way out of their
current troubles is to repeat the policies that helped create them.

Steven Malanga is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a
senior editor of City Journal.

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comments included


Avatar for LaotianDave
LaotianDave
20 hours ago
Portland and Seattle are popular locations for Californians to emigrate
to when they canrCOt stand the policies they demanded in California. Unfortunately they bring their ideas with them and destroy wherever they
land.

The Pacific Northwest was settled by hard men doing hard work and now
itrCOs populated by children who couldnrCOt make it in San Francisco.

Lloyd Braun
18 hours ago edited
The stupidity required to elect a socialist barista as mayor of a major
city is incomprehensible. rCLSure this socioeconomic system has failed spectacularly everywhere itrCOs ever been implemented, but IrCOm sure thatrCOs only because the gal who makes my vegan oatmilk unicorn frappucino
hasnrCOt been put in charge!rCY


Gary Lloyd Braun
6 hours ago
Lloyd, the public school system has failed several generations of
moronic voters in blue states and cities who are doing as you suggest
here. They don't teach history and civics --- only propaganda such as
the "1619 Project."


Insufficiently Sensitive
4 hours ago
The staterCOs (Oregon's) urban growth boundary system, designed to limit sprawl, concentrate density, and preserve rural land, has further
constrained supply.

Why omit Washington's horrible Growth Management Act? It also
deliberately constricts housing supply, forcing urban sprawl into the
vertical direction - the super-expensive one. And omitted is another blue-state fallacy, which is that drivers should be forced out of their
cars and onto 'mass transportation' - which is incapable of taking
people and goods and services from all their infinite Points A to their infinite Points B on the drivers' necessary schedules. But both Portland
and Seattle joyously misled their populations into giant urban rail
projects, promising 'affordable' commuting within 'just a few' years -
and leaving property owners stuck with the skyrocketing costs of systems
which are still years behind schedule.

Washington tried its GMA as a statewide Initiative - which was stoutly
voted down by the voters. Oh, no problem - the blue State government
simply imposed it on those voting ninnies, as they are now attempting to
do with their bazillionaires' tax. No wonder the days of 'go West, young
man' are over.

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