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Two decades have passed since California last elected a Republican
governor, but GOP candidate Steve Hilton points to 6 million reasons why
he believes itrCOs possible to do so again.
Those are the number of votes President Donald Trump won in California
in 2024, despite losing the state to Kamala Harris by 20 points. Yet it
was 1.6 million more votes than Trump earned there during his first presidential bid in 2016, a rare sign of growth in a deep-blue
Democratic bastion.
One month before the California primary, a spirited free-for-all has
broken out in the race for governor, with a half-dozen Democrats and two Republicans among the leading contenders vying for the top two positions
that will advance to the November election. There are 61 total
candidates who will be on the nonpartisan primary ballot.
If the Democratic candidates split the vote among their supporters, itrCOs hardly a far-fetched scenario that the Republican hopefuls rCo Hilton, a
former Fox News host, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco rCo could
emerge as the top two winners in the June 2 primary.
rCLItrCOs a perfect opportunity,rCY former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, told CNN. rCLThe mismanagement of Gavin Newsom and
such a weak field gives voters a chance to actually look at somebody new
and better for California.rCY
While Democrats concede that such an outcome is mathematically possible,
they argue itrCOs not politically probable in the era of Trump, toward
whom disdain and disapproval run deep among the staterCOs electorate.
But even the prospect of an all-Republican general election is enough to
rattle Democratic leaders who are trying to bring order to an unwieldy
contest to succeed Newsom after his eight years as governor.
rCLI continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field,rCY Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, said. rCLI have deep respect for the Democrats who step forward to serve and I also know they understand the importance of electing a Democrat as our next governor, including the need to narrow the field to ensure we win in November.rCY
HicksrCO blunt assessment underscores the uncertainty in the race. The gubernatorial campaign in the nationrCOs most populous state was thrown
into chaos when Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out and resigned
from Congress last month amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
Democratic hopefuls Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter are
among the partyrCOs candidates who are scrambling to gain the upper hand rCo and fighting for the same voters rCo in an unusual contest that could
create an opening for a head-to-head match between the Republicans.
Hilton, for his part, has won TrumprCOs endorsement in the race.
Bianco, a sheriff who has embraced claims of election fraud, is also
among the upper tier of candidates who received double-digit support in
the crowded field, according to the latest CBS/YouGov California poll.
While Republicans comprise a far smaller share of California voters,
only Hilton and Bianco are seriously competing for them. Even as TrumprCOs endorsement has given Hilton a boost among Republicans, it could also
reduce the likelihood that he and Bianco may emerge as the top two
finishers in next monthrCOs primary, if Hilton begins to outpace his
rival.
But it has not closed the door to that possibility, considering the
jockeying among the Democratic challengers in a race with no clear
frontrunner.
A two-decade GOP drought
It was nearly 20 years rCo and beyond a lifetime ago in Republican
politics rCo that Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection to a second term as California governor on November 7, 2006. His landslide victory was a
highpoint for Republicans on an otherwise punishing night for the party
in the final midterm election during the George W. Bush administration.
rCLI love doing sequels,rCY Schwarzenegger, the actor-turned-politician,
told supporters that night in Beverly Hills. rCLThis, without any doubt,
is my favorite sequel.rCY
When he left office in 2011, it was the final act for Republicans after
a long history of winning high office in California, which has elected
21 GOP governors since becoming a state in 1850 rCo more than half of the
38 governors overall.
But long gone are the days of the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan, who
served from 1967 to 1975, and even Pete Wilson, who served from 1991 to
1999.
It was WilsonrCOs harsh rhetoric on immigrants and support for Proposition
187, a measure that sought to block undocumented immigrants from
receiving government services, which helped turn California away from Republicans and into the Democratic stronghold of today.
An argument for change
A wave of discontent over housing costs, homelessness, a perennial state
budget crisis and the response to devastating California wildfires has
fueled an argument for change after NewsomrCOs two terms in office. He is prohibited by term limits from running again and has not endorsed a
candidate, but Republicans have seized on his record to make their case.
rCLWe cannot keep going in this direction,rCY Hilton said at a debate last month, rCLwith Democrats constantly going for their insatiable appetite
for more and more taxes for their bottomless money pit.rCY
Bianco has also repeatedly blasted Democrats who control every statewide spending more and more of your money because they refuse to stop the spending.rCY
But at every turn, the Democratic candidates have responded with even
louder criticism of the Trump administration, particularly the
presidentrCOs decision to federalize the National Guard in California last
year as the opening salvo in a nationwide immigration crackdown.
rCLWe need someone whorCOs going to fight Donald Trump,rCY Becerra said at a debate Tuesday, rCLnot agree with him.rCY
Aside from his endorsement of Hilton, Trump has barely weighed in
publicly on the race. Yet the presidentrCOs dismal approval rating among Democrats and independent voters likely complicates the successful path
of any Republican candidate.
rCLIn the current tribal environment of American politics, I donrCOt think itrCOs possible to elect a Republican statewide,rCY Rob Stutzman, a longtime Republican strategist in California, told CNN.
rCLI do think Republicans will be able to make progress in the years ahead
on affordability issues rCo blue state governance doesnrCOt stand up well to scrutiny,rCY he added, rCLbut the biggest topic in the governorrCOs race right now is which Democrat will oppose Trump and ICE raids the most.rCY
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/02/politics/california-republican-governor-pr
imary
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