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SECRET
SECURITY INFORMATION

G-1579-4
cc: B. D. Thomas
H. C. Cross/A. D. Westerman
L. R. Jackson
W. T. Reid
P. J. Rieppal
V. W. Ellsey/R. J. Lund January 9, 1953
Files
Extra [this was handwritten]


Mr. Miles E. Coll
Box 9575
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio

Attention Capt. Edward J. Ruppelt

Dear Mr. Coll:


This letter concerns a preliminary recommendation to ATIC on future
methods of handling the problem of unidentified aerial objects. This
recommendation is based on our experience to date in analyzing several
thousands of reports on this subject. We regard the recommendation as
preliminary because our analysis is not yet complete, and we are not
able to document it where we feel it should be supported by facts from
the analysis.

We are making this recommendation prematurely because of a CIA-
sponsored meeting of a scientific panel, meeting in Washington, D.C.,
January 14, 15, and 16, 1953, to consider the problem of "flying
saucers". The CIA-sponsored meeting is being held subsequent to a
meeting of CIA, ATIC, and our representatives held at ATIC on December
12, 1952. At the December 12 meeting our representatives strongly
recommended that a scientific panel not be set up until the results of
our analysis of the sighting-reports collected by ATIC were available.
Since a meeting of the panel is now definately scheduled we feel that
agreement between Project Stork and ATIC should be reached as to what
can and what cannot be discussed at the meeting in Washington on
January 14-16 concerning our preliminary recommendation to ATIC.

Experience to date on our study of unidentified flying objects shows
that there is a distinct lack of reliable data with which to work. Even
the best-documented reports are frequently lacking in critical
information that makes it impossible to arrive at a possible
identification, i.e. even in a well-documented report there is always
an element of doubt about the data, either because the observer had no
means of getting the required data, or was not prepared to utilize the
means at his disposal. Therefore, we recommend that a controlled
experiment be set up by which reliable physical data can be obtained. A
tentative preliminary plan by which the experiment could be designed
and carried out is discussed in the following paragraphs.

Based on our experience so far, it is expected that certain
conclusions will be reached as a result of our analysis which will make
obvious the need for an effort to obtain reliable data from competent
observers using the [... unreadable...] necessary equipment. Until more
reliable data are available, no positive answers to the problem will be
possible.


Mr. Miles E. Coll -2- January 9, 1953

We expect that our analysis will show that certain areas in the
United States have had an abnormally high number of reported incidents
of unidentified flying objects. Assuming that, from our analysis,
several definite areas productive of reports can be selected, we
recommend that one or two of theses areas be set up as experimental
areas. This area, or areas, should have observation posts with complete
visual skywatch, with radar and photographic coverage, plus all other
instruments necessary or helpful in obtaining positive and reliable
data on everything in the air over the area. A very complete record of
the weather should also be kept during the time of the experiment.
Coverage should be so complete that any object in the air could be
tracked, and information as to its altitude, velocity, size, shape,
color, time of day, etc. could be recorded. All balloon releases or
known balloon paths, aircraft flights, and flights of rockets in the
test area should be known to those in charge of the experiment. Many
different types of aerial activity should be secretly and purposefully
scheduled within the area.

We recognize that this proposed experiment would amount to a large-
scale military maneuver, or operation, and that it would require
extensive preparation and fine coordination, plus maximum security.
Although it would be a major operation, and expensive, there are many
extra benefits to be derived besides the data on unidentified aerial
objects.

The question of just what would be accomplished by the proposed
experiment occurs. Just how could the problem of these unidentified
objects be solved? From this test area, during the time of the
experiment, it can be assumed that there would be a steady flow of
reports from ordinary civilian observers, in addition to those by
military or other official observers. It should be possible by such a
controlled experiment to prove the identity of all objects reported, or
to determine p[ositively that there were objects present of unknown
identity. Any hoaxes under a set-up such as this could almost certainly
be exposed, perhaps not pubically, but at least to the military.

In addition, by having resulting data from the controlled experiment,
reports for the last five years could be re-evaluated, in the light of
similar but positive information. This should make possible reasonably
certain conclusions concerning the importance of the problem of "flying
saucers".

Results of an experiment such as described could assist the Air Force
to determine how much attention to pay to future situations when, as in
the past summer, there were thousands of sightings reported. In the
future, then, the Air Force should be able to make positive statements,
reassuring to the public, and to the effect that everything is well
under control.

Very truly yours,

[unsigned]
H. C. Cross
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