389
AXNT20 KNHC 301636
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Mar 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1636 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning and Western and Central Atlantic Ocean High Seas: A
cold front extends from 31N51W to 22N68W, followed by a shear line
that extends to the eastern Bahamas. The front will reach from
31N46W to 27N55W to 21N64W this evening. Strong to near-gale force
N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas to 18 ft are expected
behind the front. Winds will briefly reach gale force in the NE
offshore waters N of 27N and E of 60W this evening. Thereafter,
the front will stall and gradually weaken before it dissipates
over the eastern offshore waters Tue. Strong high pressure will
build in the wake of the front, which will support the
continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very
rough seas across most of the offshore forecast waters through the
end of the week. However, seas above 12 ft are forecast to
subside Wed night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
following websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the marine zone of
Agadir near the coast of Morocco through 30/18 UTC. Please refer
to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16.5W, then
reaches southwestward to near 00N30W. The ITCZ begins near 00N30W
then continues to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 03S to 03N between 19W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is supporting a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms north of 26.5N between 87.5W and 91W. Scattered
moderate convection is also found in the Bay of Campeche in
association to a surface trough. Otherwise, strong high pressure
over the NW Atlantic waters, building in the wake of the front,
extends a ridge basin-wide, which is supporting moderate to fresh
E to SE winds E of 90W and gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of
90W. Seas are mainly slight W of 90W and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and moderate seas are
expected over the E Gulf through Fri night. Over the western half
of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for
locally strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a strong Atlantic ridge building
in the wake of a front N of the area and a 1010 mb low over NW
Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds along with
moderate to rough seas over the NW, SW, and central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere in the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Fri night, pulsing
to near gale force at night through midweek. This pattern will
also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning about
a gale warning and the wind waves generating very rough seas.

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 22N68W, followed by a shear
line that extends to the eastern Bahamas. Strong high pressure
building behind the front supports strong to near gale-force NE
winds from the southern Florida seaboard to 53W, according to the
latest satellite-derived winds. An area of gale-force winds has
also been confirmed by satellite observations, north of 30N
between 52W and 54W. Rough to very rough seas are found along with
these winds. Ahead of the front, a weak surface trough with
scattered to isolated showers prevail. Otherwise, a 1041 mb high
NE to the Azores Islands extends a ridge to the eastern Atlantic
subtropical waters and supports fresh to near gale-force NE to W
winds and rough to very rough seas to 14 ft N of 26N and E of 26W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from 31N46W to 27N55W to 21N64W this evening. Strong to
near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas are
expected behind the front, briefly reaching minimal gale force in
the NE offshore waters N of 27N and E of 57W this evening. The
front will stall and dissipate over the SE waters Tue, with strong
high pressure building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are then expected
across most of the offshore forecast waters the second half of the week.

$$
KRV
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