ACUS11 KWNS 242011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242010
TXZ000-NMZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern New Mexico into far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 242010Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by late
this afternoon into early evening as convective development occurs
and enters into the Slight Risk area. Damaging straight-line winds
and hail are the primary threats, though a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

DISCUSSION...As forcing for ascent moves out of northern Mexico and
into New Mexico/Texas, convective development is expected to occur
and move into the Slight Risk Area. The 18Z EPZ sounding shows
modest instability with a strongly-sheared, straight-line hodograph
that will support a mix of supercell thunderstorms and
upscale-growing line segments.

Southeasterly surface flow from south-central/southeast New Mexico
into Far West Texas could support slower storm motions and a
relatively greater potential for large hail and a tornado or two.
However, the primary threat across the watch area will be for
damaging straight-line winds and hail. The HRRR-RRFS time-lagged
ensemble has upscale-growing line segments entering far West Texas
by 23-00Z, while storms further north and east in New Mexico will
support both a hail and wind threat.

A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by early evening.

..Halbert/Mosier.. 10/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9JKpBPZeVWVKaAuwILDZ2fWxhuJSZPe-aOyVUVa83c6GKPxaioYmrIXwXKRAbS-l8ymWYRAI9uUFOJ5Y0LrNVMSYE94$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31730703 32530730 33430748 34550735 35050695 35320653
35240609 35060589 34510555 33440534 32790515 32600477
32470441 32260394 31960376 31050394 30270416 29850438
29730462 30130479 30580519 31180594 31730703

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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