Forum: Too Lazy BBS

DAY2SVR: Day 2 Convective Outlook

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 04:57:30 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 110457
SWODY2
SPC AC 110455

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper low initially over the Columbia Basin will develop south to
the Sierra Nevada, while an embedded vorticity maximum progresses
through the basal portion that feature from central/southern CA
through the lower-CO Valley into the Great Basin. Downstream from
those developments, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to
translate from the northern or central High Plains into the upper
Midwest and neighboring Upper Great Lakes regions by Monday night.
At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over central NE
will develop along a boundary into southern MN by late afternoon or
early evening before reaching central WI Monday night.

...Upper Midwest...

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region on
Monday, atop a moistening boundary layer, yielding a moderately
unstable but capped air mass by afternoon along and south of the
surface boundary and approaching cyclone. Elevated thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the north of the surface warm sector over the
northern Plains Monday morning within a zone of forcing for ascent
preceding the short-wave trough. That convective regime is expected
to spread into portions of MN and WI late Monday afternoon into
night, amidst a thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE generally
less than 1000 J/kg. While a few instances of hail approaching one
inch appear possible, larger sizes are expected to be limited by the
marginal instability and generally less than 30-35 kt of effective
bulk shear.

...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin...

Increased forcing for ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum is
expected to foster an areal increase in low-topped thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, which are likely to continue into Monday night.
Generally weak instability should limit severe weather potential;
however, in areas where low-level lapse rates can sufficiently
steepen, the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft could yield a
few gusts approaching 58 mph. Some small hail may also accompany the
strongest updrafts.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:05:54 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 111705
SWODY2
SPC AC 111703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from the central
High Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring a belt of
mildly enhanced westerly mid/upper flow across the region, with an
increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected by Monday evening
from the Mid-MS Valley into MI. At the surface, low pressure will
shift east across MN/WI/MI, with a trailing cold front surging
east/southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm
front will be oriented west to east across northern WI to northern
Lower MI. Elevated thunderstorms may develop by 00z near and north
of this boundary on the edge of the increasing low-level jet and
stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front. Cooling
aloft will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
supporting modest elevated instability. Small hail may occur with
stronger updrafts within the modestly sheared environment across
northern WI/the U.P. of MI and portions of northern Lower MI during
the evening and overnight hours. Overall severe potential is
expected to remain limited by modest instability and capping across
the warm sector, precluding severe probabilities.

...Southwest/Great Basin...

Lingering moisture across the Southwest and Great Basin will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms within enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper low and attendant
trough. Meager destabilization will limit severe potential, though
some gusty winds are possible given stronger synoptic flow.

...Southern High Plains...

A few thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough/dryline
across western TX/eastern NM as low-level moisture returns north and
west across the southern Plains. Modest vertical shear and weak
instability should limit severe potential, though some locally gusty
outflow winds are possible given steepened low-level lapse rates due
to daytime heating into the upper 80s/low 90s.

..Leitman.. 10/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 05:20:12 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 120519
SWODY2
SPC AC 120517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will progress through the Great Basin toward the
central Rockies/Four Corners with a downstream belt of enhanced
mid/upper-level winds stretching from the southern Rockies through
the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Within that airstream, a
short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, while a more subtle impulse translates from the southern
Rockies into the Upper Midwest.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the Great
Lakes into the Northeast with a trailing front stretching through
the southern Great Lakes and southern IA into central or southwest
KS, where it will link with a secondary surface low. Dryline will
extend south from the KS low to along the TX-NM border by late
afternoon or early evening.

...Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...

Level-2/Slight Risk wind and hail probabilities have been extended
to the St. Joseph and Kansas City, MO vicinities in this forecast
update to account for greater severe storm potential in a favorable
CAPE-shear parameter space.

Southerly low-level winds will maintain a moist boundary layer
within the warm sector with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low-mid 70s
F. While midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, the
moist environment coupled with daytime heating will contribute to a
moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg. Slight height falls aloft combined with daytime heating and
convergence along the surface boundaries are expected to eliminate
remaining capping, yielding thunderstorm development by mid
afternoon initially from the TX and OK Panhandles into central KS.
Subsequent storm development is anticipated by late afternoon into
evening farther northeast along the front into the lower-MO Valley.
A more isolated wind and hail threat could spread into portions of
southern IA and IL Tuesday evening and night. Finally, a separate
round of strong to severe storms appears possible Tuesday night into
early Wednesday over portions of southwest TX and the Permian Basin.

Within the level-2/Slight Risk area, vertically veering wind
profiles with 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells as
the initial storm mode with large hail being the primary hazard,
both along and to the north of the front. There is some model signal
that the KS segment of the front may tend to surge south during the
afternoon into evening, which would suggest the potential for a
relatively quick transition to a more outflow-dominant storm mode
and an associated damaging wind threat. Tornado potential will be
conditional on supercell storm modes persisting into evening when
the low-level jet and associated near-ground shear increase.

...New York...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday within a
zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding
the short-wave trough and surface low. Lingering clouds and areas of precipitation are likely to inhibit air mass destabilization,
especially with eastward extent into the Hudson Valley. However,
where cloud breaks can occur, the presence of boundary-layer
dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will contribute to modest MLCAPE up to
500-750 J/kg by afternoon. On the condition that surface-based
storms can develop and become sustained, the existence of a strongly
sheared kinematic environment (particularly in the low levels) would
favor supercells capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds.
This forecast update will maintain level-1/Marginal Risk
probabilities due to uncertainties in the extent of air mass
destabilization.

..Mead.. 10/12/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 17:01:16 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 121700
SWODY2
SPC AC 121658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

An upper low and attendant trough will migrate east across the
Southwest on Tuesday, allowing a band of enhanced southwesterly
mid/upper flow to overspread the region. At the surface, a weak lee
low and surface trough will develop from western KS through far west
TX. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from the Upper
Midwest southwestward through northern KS. This boundary will sag
south and east through the period. Southerly low-level flow across
the warm sector between these features will maintain mid 60s to low
70s F dewpoints across much of the southern Plains into KS and the
Lower MO Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain
modest across the Plains, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s will
support moderate destabilization of the very moist airmass, with
MLCAPE of 1250-2000 J/kg common from parts of northwest TX into the
Lower MO Valley.

Capping is expected to erode by mid to late afternoon, and isolated
to scattered convection is expected by 00z near the triple point and
northeast along the cold front into the Lower MO Valley. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough across
portions of western TX during the evening as a southwesterly
low-level jet strengthens. Vertically veering wind profiles and 40+
kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells
capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Where
low-level SRH is maximized near the triple point and surface front,
a tornado or two also could occur. As the low-level jet increases
and expands northward overnight, additional thunderstorm development
is expected along and north of the surface front from the Lower MO
Valley into northern IL. This activity may tend to be elevated on
the cool side of the surface boundary and pose a risk for marginal
hail and gusty winds. If convection along the surface can maintain
near-surface based character, damaging wind potential could be
greater across parts of MO/IL, but this scenario is uncertain.

...Western NY...

An upper shortwave trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase
across the Lower Great Lakes vicinity as this occurs, and a surface
low will spread eastward across the region. Ahead of an
eastward-developing cold front, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints
are forecast. While a moist airmass will reside across the region,
early day clouds and showers/thunderstorms will result in
questionable destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization can occur, a few strong thunderstorms could develop
within the moist and strongly sheared environment, posing a risk of
locally gusty winds.

..Leitman.. 10/12/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 05:17:36 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND IN PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark
Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is
forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High
Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low,
a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies
into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in
the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of
convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley
to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move
south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into
portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front
over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat
north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the
central Plains.

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm
advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal
low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints
in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air
mass will likely support the continuation of showers and
thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe
of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating
may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon
where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization
process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing
for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an
environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during
the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of
severe hail being in southwest TX.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late
afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent
preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west, thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in
areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level
lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with
height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear
supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts
into evening.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 17:32:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA...TO THE WESTERN OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated
hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the
southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the
upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
An upper low, initially over the Four Corners, is forecast move
eastward over the High Plains while southwesterly flow aloft
increases. A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will
move along a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS
Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. Western portions
of the front, modified by convection, may eventually stall and
perhaps retreat north Wed night in response to falling pressures
with a deepening lee low over eastern CO and the central Plains.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, in one or more clusters, are
likely to be ongoing from the mid MS valley into southern/eastern KS
and central OK at 12z Wed. The cold front will likely be reinforced
by the convection with the morning outflow potentially causing it to
sag slowly across central OK and the western Ozarks Plateau through
the day. To the south of the boundary, the air mass should remain
very moist (70s F dewpoints), with modest heating contributing to
weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Large-scale ascent will
gradually increase as the upper low approaches, aiding in
thunderstorm redevelopment along the dryline across the TX
Panhandle/western OK, and within the broader warm sector by early
afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be supportive
of a mix of organized supercells and lines/clusters. Damaging winds
are the most likely threat given modest low/mid-level lapse rates
and a mixed convective mode. However, isolated hail and perhaps a
tornado, are also possible with any more persistent supercells.

As the main upper low moves eastward into the evening/overnight, the
stalled surface front may gradually return northward as a warm front
across OK and KS. The air mass will remain very moist, aided by
further moisture advection associated with a developing 30-40 kt
low-level jet. As low-level warm air advection increases near the
boundary, storm redevelopment is possible through the
evening/overnight. Expanding low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200
m2/s2) and the very moist PBL could support a tornado or two with
any supercells or linear clusters able to develop near the surface
low and warm front into early Thursday.

...OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic...
Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead
of the cold front. Thunderstorms ongoing over the mid MS valley, and
additional development from the aforementioned vorticity maxima, are
expected to increase in areal coverage along the front through the
afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated damaging
wind gusts into evening.

..Lyons.. 10/13/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 05:24:22 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 140524
SWODY2
SPC AC 140521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over central Canada Thursday morning is forecast
to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the
Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature,
an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave
while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest.
That pattern evolution will yield a steadily strengthening
deep-layer wind field over the mid-MS and OH Valleys through the
forecast period. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected
to develop along a warm front from central or eastern KS through the
mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern
Plains, Ozark Plateau, and mid-MS Valley.

...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Thursday morning from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley
ahead of the surface low and within a zone of low-level warm
advection and the possible influence of a lead disturbance moving
through the region. A subset of the morning storms is likely to
continue through the remainder of the day with convective outflow
and clouds limiting air mass destabilization in those areas.

A relatively narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will
be advected into the northern extension of the system warm sector,
contributing to MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon
in areas peripheral to active convection. A subsequent increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity is expected at that time
from east-central MO into central and southern IL. The presence of
40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of transient
supercell and bowing structures capable of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two through the evening.

The duration and eastward extent of the damaging wind threat remain
in question Thursday night in the mid to upper-OH Valley. Model
soundings indicate a shallow, near-ground inversion developing
within the warm sector as the surface low outpaces better low-level
moisture return. However, widely spaced damaging wind gusts may
still remain possible given the presence of 40-50 kt winds within
the lowest km above ground.

...Southern Plains/Ozark Plateau...

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and/or small hail appear
possible Thursday afternoon and evening along the cold front
progressing through the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates, weak
low-level winds, and deep-layer shear vectors oriented parallel to
the progressive/undercutting front are likely to lead to
outflow-dominant, disorganized convective modes, limiting severe
weather potential.

..Mead.. 10/14/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 17:29:00 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 141728
SWODY2
SPC AC 141726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will dig south and east across the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. As this occurs, a shortwave
disturbance over the southern/central Plains will lift northeast,
eventually overspreading the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys ahead of the
developing larger-scale upper trough. A plume of moisture from the
southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and persistent warm advection
will support areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some
severe thunderstorm potential developing across the Ohio Valley.

...Mid-MS and OH Valleys...

Height falls associated with the lead upper shortwave impulse will
develop over south-central IL during the day and spread
east/northeast into the evening. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms
will reinforce an outflow/effective warm front from near the MS
River eastward roughly near the I-70 corridor across IL/IN. This
early day convection and associated cloud cover within a corridor of
persistent low-level warm advection will impact warm sector
destabilization, the degree to which remains uncertain.
Nevertheless, a narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
will support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite expected
poor lapse rates. Modest vertically veering wind profiles in the low
levels, combined with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support
transient supercells and bowing segments as additional convection
develops toward late afternoon/early evening amid an increasing
low-level jet and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with this
activity, in addition to a tornado or two (mainly across
south-central IL to central IN). Conditionally higher tornado
probabilities may be possible in later outlooks depending mesoscale
trends in the near-surface boundary layer influenced by early-day
convection.

Instability will wane with eastward extent across OH during the
nighttime hours and severe potential should gradually wane as storms
shift east/northeast.

...Southern Plains...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
southeastward-advancing cold front from southwest TX toward southern
OK. A moist and modestly unstable airmass will reside across the
region, but vertical shear is expected to remain marginal (and flow
below 700 mb generally weak). Boundary-parallel shear vectors also
will support anafrontal/undercutting convective processes.
Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates also will remain poor. A stronger
storm producing gusty winds or small hail could occur, but overall
severe potential is expected to remain limited.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 05:25:54 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 150525
SWODY2
SPC AC 150523

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two are possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic
Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

The models continue to slow the progression of an intense midlevel
trough, which will track through the Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes toward the Appalachians by early Saturday. An attending belt
of strong, southwesterly mid/upper-level flow (e.g., 70-90 kt at 500
mb) will precede the trough, the eastern edge of which will
overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. In the low levels, a
surface cyclone will develop from the lower Great Lakes into the
Gulf of St. Lawrence, while a trailing cold front advances from the
lower Great Lakes/upper-Ohio Valley regions Friday morning to off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday night.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Friday from northern
PA and NY into New England, with lingering clouds and decreasing
boundary-layer moisture with northward extent limiting air mass
destabilization in the vicinity of the surface low. Farther south
ahead of the cold front, greater diabatic heating will combine with
dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 F to yield MLCAPE approaching
500-750 J/kg by mid afternoon. Overall CAPE depth and magnitude will
be limited by warm temperatures aloft on the anticyclonic side of
the upper-level jet streak.

Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by late morning or
early afternoon along the front over eastern OH and WV into western
parts of PA and NY. An increase in storm coverage and intensity is
expected through the remainder of the afternoon as the front
encounters a more unstable air mass with eastward extent. Vertical
shear will be strong with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-55
kt, suggesting the potential for embedded supercells and/or bowing
structures within the line. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazard, though a brief tornado or two appear possible in the
Delaware River Valley and Delmarva, where locally stronger low-level
shear is forecast during the late afternoon into early evening.

An upgrade to Level-2/Slight Risk has been included with this
forecast update to highlight the area where the most favorable
overlap of instability and vertical shear is forecast from mid
afternoon into early evening.

..Mead.. 10/15/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 17:28:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 151727
SWODY2
SPC AC 151725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany a
squall line that is expected across the Mid-Atlantic into New
England tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
A pronounced, positively tilted upper trough will continue to
amplify as it rapidly approaches the East Coast tomorrow (Friday).
Accompanying this upper trough will be a strong surface cyclone,
which will track from the eastern Great Lakes to northern New
England during the day. A marginally unstable airmass will advect
ahead of a surface trough attendant from the cyclone, supporting
deep-moist convective potential amid an environment characterized by
strong forcing and vertical wind shear. As such, severe storms will
be possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England late tomorrow morning into the evening hours.

...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...
As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over
the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant
surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in
the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve
into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of
mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates
will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the
line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots.
Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be
brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread
antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will
accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt
flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the
boundary layer, just above the surface.

Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall
line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within
the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface
gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of
tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA
during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early
evening.

..Squitieri.. 10/15/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 05:26:08 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 160525
SWODY2
SPC AC 160524

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging and a surface anticyclone will overspread most of the
CONUS as an upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow
(Saturday). A relatively cool, stable airmass accompanying the
surface anticyclone will suppress thunderstorm development over most
locales. A surface cold front associated with the exiting upper
trough will sweep across the FL Peninsula during the day, providing
enough lift of a preceding moist airmass to support a couple of
thunderstorms. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler mid-level
temperatures, will accompany a mid-level impulse over the Lower
Colorado River Basin, where enough lift may be present to support a
few lightning flashes.

..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 17:26:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 161726
SWODY2
SPC AC 161724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The majority of the CONUS will be dominated by a cool/dry air mass
with no potential for deep convection in the wake of a cold frontal
passage off the southeast Atlantic coast. One exception will be
across central/south FL where moist profiles (PW greater than 2
inches) and ascent along the cold front will support scattered
thunderstorms. A second possible exception will be across the
Desert Southwest as midlevel moisture and ascent increase gradually
near and east of a weak closed low over northern Baja. Buoyancy
rooted in the midlevels will be weak but could become sufficiently
deep for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes the latter
half of the period.

..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 05:47:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 170547
SWODY2
SPC AC 170545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. while a 500 mb
cut-off low meanders off of the Atlantic Coast and broad upper
troughing dominates the western CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A
relatively cool and stable low-level airmass will overspread much of
the CONUS, inhibiting thunderstorm development. A few thunderstorms
may occur over the southern FL Peninsula, where the heating of
remnant low-level moisture will promote localized lift and buoyancy.
A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over portions of the
Desert Southwest, where cooler temperatures aloft and modest ascent
will accompany a weak mid-level impulse.

..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 17:01:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 171701
SWODY2
SPC AC 171659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move east across central Canada on
Sunday, with a weak upper ridge over the central/southern Plains.
This ridge will be flanked by an upper low off the coastal
Carolinas, and a weak positive-tilt wave moving from northern Baja
CA into AZ.

At the surface, a prominent high will extend from New England all
the way into the southern Plains, with offshore winds across the
Gulf and East Coast. This will maintain a stable pattern over most
of the CONUS. The exceptions will be over AZ and far southern FL.

For AZ, midlevel moisture will stream northward ahead of the
shortwave trough. Cool midlevel temperatures may yield a few
thunderstorms during the day.

For southern FL, a northeast surface flow regime will maintain a
moist and marginally unstable air mass, and the high PWAT
environment should support a few thunderstorms moving southwestward
across the area.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 05:52:48 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 180552
SWODY2
SPC AC 180550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the East
Coast while an upper trough amplifies over the western U.S. and an
upper ridge dominates the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface
high pressure and accompanying subsidence should limit thunderstorm
development over most locales east of the Rockies. A couple of
thunderstorms may develop over the FL Keys given adequate surface
heating of a moist low-level airmass. A few thunderstorms may also
occur over the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners, where cooler
temperatures aloft with a mid-level impulse overspreads modest
low-level moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 16:59:54 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 181659
SWODY2
SPC AC 181658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will linger off the East Coast while an upper trough
amplifies just off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a leading wave will
affect the area from Baja CA into the Four Corners states.

Instability will be minimal over most of the CONUS due to an area of
high pressure, with the surface ridge extending from the Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. The exceptions will be near
the FL Keys where moist easterly winds will persist, supporting
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and over AZ and NM, where
midlevel moisture will support weak instability. In either case,
severe weather is not anticipated due to weak instability.

..Jewell.. 10/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 05:35:58 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 190535
SWODY2
SPC AC 190533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will deepen along the West Coast on Tuesday,
resulting in a broad low-level mass response with a return flow of
low-level moisture across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin
and central High Plains regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with
this broad axis of low-level moisture will result in at least widely
scattered thunderstorm development through the day across the Great
Basin into the Desert Southwest and High Plains. A couple instances
of strong surface wind gusts may accompany thunderstorms in the
Lower Colorado River Basin given stronger flow fields aloft. At the
moment though, buoyancy appears too limited to support an organized
severe gust threat, so severe probabilities have been withheld this
outlook. By later Tuesday night, cooler mid-level temperatures
associated with the upper trough will overspread a marine boundary
layer along the CA coastline, promoting thunderstorm chances here as
well.

..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 17:17:20 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 191715
SWODY2
SPC AC 191714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A few strong storms
may affect parts of Arizona late Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will extend from eastern Canada southwestward to the
Gulf of America on Tuesday, maintaining stable conditions over most
of the central and eastern states on Tuesday. Farther west, a deep
upper trough will exist just off the West Coast, with increasing
southwest winds aloft from CA into UT and AZ.

Strong daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorms from the
Great Basin into AZ, though an inversion above 500 mb should
minimize updraft strength.

A greater chance of possibly strong thunderstorms may develop
overnight into AZ as temperatures aloft cool, and, winds increase
out of the south. This enhanced upslope may support additional
storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim, and shear will be
stronger at that time. Instability may only be marginally
supportive, with the greater risk developing after 12Z Wednesday
morning.

..Jewell.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 06:00:44 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 200600
SWODY2
SPC AC 200558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado may occur over portions of
Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move ashore through the day Wednesday,
promoting large-scale ascent of a moistening airmass across the
Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected over these regions, and given the anticipated overlap
of marginal to moderate buoyancy with a highly sheared airmass, a
few severe thunderstorms are possible.

...Desert Southwest to the Four Corners...
Marginal instability should develop through the day, primarily
driven by increasing low-level warm-air and moisture advection
(given ample cloud cover expected). Surface dewpoints should
increase into the 60s F, especially over central AZ, yielding over
1500 J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. A 50-70 kt
southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the warm sector and
accompanying southeasterly antecedent flow, yielding elongated
hodographs with sizeable low-level curvature. Supercell
thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon, accompanied by a
severe wind and hail threat. Given the size of the low-level
hodographs, a tornado or two may also occur.

...Central to southern CA Shoreline...
The core of an 80 kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern
CA during the later half of the period (00-12Z Thursday), resulting
in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs. During this
time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect to the CA shoreline
while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding
250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the scant buoyancy,
convection should be low-topped, with short line segments and
supercell modes possible. A damaging gust or two is the main threat
with any stronger storm that can reach the shore, as well as a
landfalling waterspout.

..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 17:56:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 201755
SWODY2
SPC AC 201754

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including large hail and tornado risks are
expected on Wednesday especially across Arizona and nearby parts of
the Four Corners area and Lower Colorado River Valley. A localized
severe risk may also exist along the coast of central/southern
California.

...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley/Four Corners...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, including the
potential for a full-period/multi-round of severe weather for some
areas. A climatologically rare and a concerning/well-above-typical
risk for severe storms is expected, potentially including all severe
hazards with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible.

Ahead of a prominent/deep upper trough approaching the California
coast, this scenario is attributable to a notable strengthening of
deep-layer winds (southwesterly above the boundary layer), along
with relatively rich low/mid-level moisture. The severe risk should
tend to peak in most areas during the afternoon and evening, but it
should be noted that the severe risk, particularly for parts of central/northern Arizona, may persist well through the late-night
hours of Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Broadly speaking, there is relatively high confidence that wind
profiles, with elongated/semi-straight hodographs, combined with
expected destabilization (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support sustained/splitting supercells with viable large hail potential
particularly with rotating storms, including both right-moving and
left-moving (generally moving northward) supercell-splitting
components. Hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter may locally
occur.

Forecast soundings imply that storms will be a bit higher based with south-southeastward extent across the desert floor, but lower temperature-dewpoint spreads farther north closer to/in the rim and
more forested areas of central/northern Arizona, which also
coincides where more of a southeasterly boundary layer wind
component may exist, boosting low-level hodograph curvature/SRH and contributing to tornado potential particularly across interior
central Arizona and a broader part of northern Arizona, and possibly
even into nearby southeast Nevada and/or far southern Utah.

...Coastal southern/central California...
In closer proximity to the approaching upper low, the core of an 80
kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern California during
the later half of the period (00-12Z late Wednesday and Thursday),
resulting in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs.
During this time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect into
coastal areas, while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse
rates, yielding 250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the
scant buoyancy, convection should be low-topped, with short line
segments and brief/transient supercell modes possible. A few
damaging wind gusts are the main threat with any stronger storm that
can reach the shore, but near-coastal waterspout/brief tornado
potential may also exist.

..Guyer.. 10/20/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 05:49:54 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 210549
SWODY2
SPC AC 210547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts
of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad longwave mid-level trough will traverse the western CONUS on
Thursday, encouraging continued deep-layer ascent amid the northward
advection of low-level moisture, promoting scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development. At least isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible spanning the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin given
overlapping marginal buoyancy and widespread strong wind fields
aloft. However, across portions of the Desert Southwest, an embedded
mid-level impulse accompanied by a 500 mb speed max atop locally
higher low-level moisture/instability may promote a more focused
risk of severe thunderstorms.

...Desert Southwest into the Great Basin...
Deep-layer ascent, combined with at least some degree of surface
heating ahead of the broader upper trough, will support scattered
thunderstorm development over the Great Basin during the afternoon.
Largely unidirectional (southerly) tropospheric flow will yield
highly elongated, straight hodographs and over 50 kts of effective
bulk (speed) shear. Given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and around
500 J/kg MLCAPE, transient supercells and small line segments will
be the main storm modes, accompanied by an isolated severe gust/hail
threat.

Farther south into central AZ to far western NM, a 70+ kt 500 mb
southwesterly speed max with 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
overspread southeasterly low-level flow and low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints. This ambient environment, as shown by forecast soundings,
will yield modestly elongated hodographs, but with appreciable size
and curvature at the low-levels. Given locally higher moisture, up
to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be realized in tandem with 50+ kts of
effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH. While CAM
guidance consensus depicts a complex storm mode and several
potential cellular interactions, longer-lived, embedded supercell
structures are possible. Should such storms develop, all severe
hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes.

..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 17:32:02 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts
of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An broad upper trough with an embedded upper low off the southern
California coast will move eastward on Thursday. This feature will
become more of an open wave with a modest negative tilt with time.
Above normal low-level moisture will be in place within the
Southwest. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected, some
of which may be strong to severe.

...Southwest into parts of the Great Basin...
Strong meridional flow associated with the approaching upper-trough
will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest through the
day. Moisture/destabilization will be more limited with
northward/eastward extent. Some convection will be possible early in
the period across much of the region. Depending on where pockets of
greater heating can occur, widely scattered to scattered storms are
expected to develop during the afternoon both within the terrain and
along a surface trough within the central Great Basin. Isolated
marginally severe hail and severe winds will be the primary
concerns. The potential for a tornado will increase within southern
Utah into Arizona where surface flow will be more backed greater destabilization is more probable.

With the upper-trough becoming more of an open wave with time, the
most favorable overlap of mid-level ascent, surface heating, and
steeper mid-level lapse rates will be across parts of southeast
Arizona. Storms will likely be supercellular initially. Large hail
(perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the
main concern. With time, storm interactions and an increasing linear
mode will mean a transition to more a wind threat by later in the
afternoon. Destabilization from the Mogollon Rim northward becomes
more uncertain given the signal for early clouds/precipitation.

...Coastal Southern California...
As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon,
temperatures aloft will become quite cold (around -20C at 500 mb).
Modest surface heating will lead to around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE,
potentially. Low-topped convection near the coast is possible during
the morning into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins
to decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and
local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the
strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential.

..Wendt.. 10/21/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 06:03:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will slowly progress over the Rockies on
Friday, with a lead mid-level impulse poised to eject into the
northern Plains while a lagging 500 mb cut-off low drifts eastward
across the Desert Southwest. Given adequate low-level moisture
return and deep-layer ascent ahead of the longwave mid-level trough, thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Rockies and the
central to northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible across portions of NM, where locally greater moisture and
instability reside.

...Western into central New Mexico...
As the aforementioned leading mid-level impulse departs the Rockies
and the cut-off low approaches NM, 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
will overspread the Desert Southwest, where low to mid 50s F surface
dewpoints amid southeasterly surface flow will be in place. Given
7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may
manifest amid appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, with
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. By afternoon,
thunderstorms should develop and intensify with diurnal heating.
Given the aforementioned vertical shear/buoyancy, some supercell
structures should develop, accompanied by an isolated severe
wind/hail threat, and a tornado is also possible.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 17:32:16 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across much of the
western CONUS early Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will
be embedded within the larger scale troughing, including one moving northeastward across the eastern Great Basin towards western WY, one
moving through the base of the parent trough across southern CA and
another dropping quickly southward across the Sierra toward central
and southern CA. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward through western WY and eastern MT before interacting
with an intensifying shortwave trough moving across the Canadian
Prairies. Evolution and interaction between the southernmost
shortwaves is expected to yield a closed cyclone centered over the
Lower CO Valley by early Saturday morning.

This overall evolution will foster a persistence of the deep
southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Rockies into the northern Plains. The overall troughing will have a
slight positive tilt, but the mean eastward shift will foster modest
height falls during the afternoon and evening across the Southwest.
These height falls, and associated southerly low-level flow, will
support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across NM, including the
potential for some strong to severe storms. Additional thunderstorms
appear likely near the embedded cold core as it moves across the
northern Intermountain West, and within a band of warm-air advection
farther east across the Upper MS Valley.

...New Mexico...
As mentioned in the synopsis, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to
persist across the NM throughout the period. At the same time, a
seasonably moist airmass will advect northward in the region.
Uncertainty exists regarding potential heating and mixing of this
moistening airmass, with some guidance notably more cloudy and less
mixed. Current expectation is for the greatest potential for heating
and mixing to remain over southern portions of the state, with more
clouds and less heating with northern extent.

Even with this limited heating, moist low to mid-levels and cool
mid-level temperatures will still support modest buoyancy across northern/central NM, beginning early Friday morning. Multiple rounds
of thunderstorms are possible across this region, with the
combination of modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear
supportive of organized updrafts. Hail will be the primary risk,
with isolated strong gusts possible as well. Given the potential for
supercells and moist low-levels, a low-probability tornado risk
exists as well.

Stronger heating and warmer temperatures appear more likely farther
south, which will combine with greater low-level moisture support
greater overall buoyancy and a relatively higher chance for
organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong gusts. Some
questions exist on how much low-level moisture will be in place
(i.e. low 50s dewpoints vs. upper 50s/low 60s), but the higher
dewpoint solutions suggest overall profiles supportive of very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2"+) and tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 10/22/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 05:35:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 230535
SWODY2
SPC AC 230533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of
central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.

...NM into southwest TX vicinity...

Strong upper ridging across the MS Valley will prevent much eastward-advancement of the upper cyclone over AZ. As a result, a
belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will persist from
eastern AZ into NM. At the surface, lower pressure will be oriented
across southern AZ and southwest NM while surface high pressure
builds across the northern/central Plains in the wake of a surface
cold front. As a result of the increased surface pressure gradient
across the southern Rockies, southeasterly low-level winds will transport/maintain modest boundary layer moisture across
central/eastern NM and western TX. Modest destabilization, and large
scale ascent overspreading the region ahead of the upper cyclone,
will support thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon.

Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing in speed with height,
will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs.
Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (to around 7 C/km), with
cool 500 mb temperatures around -10 to -13 C noted in regional
forecast soundings. This will result in mainly a large hail risk.
However, given stronger midlevel flow and somewhat fast storm motion
(40 kt or so), some risk for strong gusts also will be possible
where stronger heating occurs. While boundary layer moisture will
remain modest (generally 50s F dewpoints max), some risk for a
tornado is possible given favorable low-level shear. This risk will
likely be focused further south across south-central NM into Far
West TX where instability and surface heating may be maximized.

..Leitman.. 10/23/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 17:45:58 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 231745
SWODY2
SPC AC 231744

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas on Saturday.

...New Mexico and far west/southwest Texas...
A low-latitude/southern-stream trough currently centered over
southern California and the Great Basin will continue slowly
eastward through Saturday primarily over the lower Colorado River
valley and Arizona. Relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft will
extend eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas with weak
height falls overspreading a moist air mass, which will be enhanced
by gradually strengthening south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2
km AGL.

Initial storm intensification including some severe risk could occur
relatively early in the day across the Four Corners area and
northern New Mexico, with somewhat later diurnally aided development
across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Vertically veering
wind profiles, increasing in speed with height,
will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs,
including some modest low-level hodograph curvature attributable to strengthening low-level southeasterly winds. Large hail will be
possible regionally, with larger hail magnitudes more probable in
the greater instability reservoir across southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. Some tornado risk will exist as well given the
aforementioned wind profiles and relatively moist environment.
Strong mid-level flow and somewhat fast storm motions (35+ kt or so)
could also yield locally damaging wind gusts.

..Guyer.. 10/23/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 24 05:22:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for
hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and
far west Texas.

...Southern/Eastern NM into Southwest TX...

The upper cyclone and attendant trough over UT/AZ early Sunday will
weaken as it lifts northeast toward the central Plains through early
Monday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper
flow will persist across portions of the southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a stalled surface boundary is
forecast from central NM northeastward into the central Plains.
Southeasterly low-level flow on the warm side of the boundary will
maintain 50s F dewpoints across the region.

Cloudiness and possibly ongoing showers/thunderstorms early in the
period lend to uncertainty regarding degree of daytime heating and
thus, destabilization. Nevertheless, modest instability is expected
amid vertically veering/supercell wind profiles. Elongated
hodographs and cool temperatures near -10 to -12 C at 500 mb suggest
isolated hail will be possible with strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 10/24/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 24 17:26:00 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 241725
SWODY2
SPC AC 241723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west
Texas.

...Eastern NM to far west TX...
In advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest, a midlevel
shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the Four Corners and
begin to weaken slowly. Height falls with the ejecting trough will
brush the northwest side of a persistent plume of low-midlevel
moisture over NM, along a slow-moving, northeast-southwest oriented
baroclinic zone. Ascent along the baroclinic zone, in conjunction
with surface heating in occasional cloud breaks and local terrain
circulations, will support scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon from far west TX into eastern NM.

Midlevel lapse rates will be steeper closer to the ejecting midlevel
wave (northwest of the surface warm sector), and more limited within
the warm sector as a result of relatively widespread convection the
past few days. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F will be
enough for MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg despite muted surface heating with
clouds. Vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some
supercell potential. Isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter)
will be the main threat, though low-level moisture and hodograph
curvature suggest that an isolated tornado will also be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur early Sunday morning near the
OR coast with low-topped convection as he midlevel cold core
approaches. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across
southeast FL in the moist northeasterly flow around the western
periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas.

..Thompson.. 10/24/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 25 05:04:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 250504
SWODY2
SPC AC 250502

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough initially over the southern/central High
Plains, will lift northeast to the Upper Midwest on Monday into
early Tuesday. Large-scale upper troughing will persist across the
western U.S. as a deepening cyclone and attendant shortwave trough
deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and Intermountain
West. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer
moisture across the southern Plains vicinity ahead of a cold front
progressing south/southeast across the central Plains and Mid-MO
Valley.

Modest destabilization is forecast from southwest TX,
southern/eastern NM, portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far
southwest KS. Isolated thunderstorms may develop toward late
afternoon through evening. Effective shear around 25-30 kt could
support transient storm organization, but southwest flow below 500
mb is forecast to remain fairly weak. Furthermore, warmer midlevel
temperatures may hinder stronger updrafts despite modest
instability. While the strongest storms could produce small hail,
overall severe potential appears limited, precluding Level
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Leitman.. 10/25/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 25 19:18:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 251734
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing over the western half of the CONUS will continue
Monday as the primary shortwave trough, initially over the
southern/central High Plains lifts northeast to the Upper Midwest.
An intensifying upper-level cyclone and attendant shortwave trough
will deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and
Intermountain West as several weaker perturbations move through the
Southwest and southern Plains. A weak surface low will develop and
track northeastward into the Midwest with the primary shortwave. A
weak lee trough will support modest southerly low-level flow
maintaining boundary layer moisture ahead of a slow-moving cold
front across the central and southern Plains.

...Rio Grande Valley...
Modest destabilization is forecast ahead of the weak surface
trough/cold front from southwest TX and southern/eastern NM, into
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far southwest KS. Surface
dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F amid diurnal heating ahead of
the front should allow for modest destabilization Monday afternoon.
The front and lee trough should serve a focus for convective
development, with isolated thunderstorms forecast to toward late
afternoon into the evening, with additional warm advection storms
possible over the Midwest overnight. Buoyancy should be generally
weak (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) amidst modest mid-level flow and bulk shear
(20-25 kt). Locally greater buoyancy and storm coverage across
Southwest TX and southern NM could support a stronger storm or two
during the afternoon with sporadic damaging gusts or isolated hail
not entirely impossible. However, the weak buoyancy along with poor
mid-level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity.

...Northern Rockies...
The upper cyclone, initially over eastern WA/OR will move into the
northern Rockies accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft. Low and
mid-level lapse rates should steepen in response to the strong
ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures (-20 to -25 C). Despite
meager moisture, weak instability may develop across parts of ID in
the afternoon supporting isolated thunderstorms. While a stray
strong gust or small hail cannot be ruled out owing to the
increasingly strong upper-level wind fields, cool surface
temperatures and weak buoyancy should preclude any organized severe
risk.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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