ACUS11 KWNS 222334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222333
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Arkansas...southwest
Tennessee...northern Mississippi and Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615...

Valid 222333Z - 230100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615
continues.

SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms continue over
portions of WW615. Damaging winds remain possible with these storms.
Some risk may continue into parts of northwestern AL this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters
of strong to severe storms ongoing across portions of WW615. The
most intense of these clusters, located near the MS/TN border has
produced recent measured severe gusts. This should continue across
portions of southern TN and northern MS where moderate to large
buoyancy and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear are present and supporting
more organized multicell clusters. High PWATS (2+ inches) and
clustering will promote stronger downdrafts capable of
damaging/isolated severe gusts.

The primary severe risk appears most likely along the southwestern
flank of the leading cluster across north-central MS where stronger
low-level convergence along the existing outflow may preferentially
support maintenance of the ongoing storms/new development this
evening. However, some severe risk is possible east of WW615 into
parts of northwestern AL this evening. However, the environment
farther east is cooler and somewhat drier with less overall
buoyancy. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent also casts
some uncertainty on longevity. Regardless, enough buoyancy and steep
low-level lapse rates likely exist to support an isolated damaging
wind threat.

..Lyons.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5p801WqIB0x7vwTOxCMMsnFjHYvaR0qvX9DaIBuuZgISAedvELWMxTAZhGDMHuxP-mVxj03p7DWslnQChdNxeEejLLQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 35318939 35348856 35238754 34778728 34378730 33998745
33528765 33198802 32958832 32768902 32778913 32919006
33349101 34169239 34589310 34899320 35109096 35318939

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)