ACUS11 KWNS 222205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222204
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Columbia Basin and northern
Rockies.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222204Z - 230000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps some hail are possible
with scattered thunderstorms across WA, northern ID and into western
MT. While an isolated severe storm is possible, a WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, GOES WV imagery showed an arc of
convection ongoing from the Columbia Basin to the northern Rockies
associated with an upper low off the WA/OR coast. Diurnal heating of
a modified/remnant monsoon air mass has resulted in weak buoyancy
over much of the Northwest. Scattered thunderstorms have developed
across the higher terrain and a weak wind shift across the western
Columbia Basin. Storm coverage is forecast to increase over the next
couple of hours through peak heating, coinciding with some
intensification of the ongoing/anticipated storms.

A belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft is overspreading the
weakly unstable air mass, supporting elongated mid and upper-level
hodographs. This could result in some modest storm organization into
clusters or transient supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse
rates, especially closer to the upper low over WA where mid-level
temperatures are cooler, could support a few stronger updrafts
capable of marginally severe hail and damaging downburst winds.
While an isolated severe risk is possible from WA into northern ID
and northwest MT, the weak buoyancy and limited moisture should
limit overall storm organization/intensity such that a WW is
unlikely.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8GYdW_dQAX44a3URBwcyGiTILanfgcKWQIXfB4r67omqlvFu3aAvLX89_Du3cQPx8n5JHGFGmEuckZweoTTYsyrooqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...

LAT...LON 47941313 46741237 45141194 44021274 44451443 44911552
46581763 47031840 47151893 47141990 47202040 47412096
47752118 48602120 49022098 49142051 49131704 49081484
47941313

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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