ACUS11 KWNS 222202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222202
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-230030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Portions of western/central Virginia and northern
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222202Z - 230030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage while
spreading eastward into this evening. The primary concern is locally
damaging wind gusts. While a watch is not currently expected, trends
are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage along the Blue
Ridge in western VA, potentially aided by increasing midlevel height
falls preceding a broad midlevel trough approaching the region from
the west. Over the next few hours, these storms should continue
spreading eastward across western/central VA and northern NC. A
warm, moist, and uncapped air mass downstream should support a
modest increase in thunderstorm coverage. While midlevel lapse rates
are limiting overall buoyancy (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), an
elongated midlevel hodograph (40 kt of 0-6 km shear per FCX VWP)
could promote a few loosely organized clusters capable of producing
locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall risk may remain too localized/sparse for a watch, trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7qhot9bEL1xisbvvUp-T3HOZjZqKSgWJL--IeYjCLMbEO--AQojMYO0I5MbfVs2k-sW4YG5WW_7BEri-mTuN5ZhtfZ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 36568122 36908125 37628037 38057977 38737887 39377837
39447792 39237739 38807712 38207722 36967810 36137933
35987997 36008043 36298116 36568122

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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