ACUS11 KWNS 222049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222049
IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Nevada into northwestern
Utah and southern/eastern Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222049Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts may
develop across portions of the northern Great Basin through this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across portions
of the northern Great Basin, with a 61 mph wind gust recently
recorded near Pocatello, ID. Modifying regional 18z observed
soundings from BOI/LKN for current observations depicts deep,
well-mixed boundary layer profiles with LCLs of 2.5-3.0+ km.
Steepening low-to-mid level lapse rates below ~600 mb and modest
surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s F have
yielded the development of weak buoyancy (500 to locally 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) underlying enhanced southwesterly, deep-layer flow to the
southwest of an upper low currently noted off the Pacific Northwest
coastline.

Broadly, this enhanced flow (and accompanying 25-35 kts of effective
shear) along with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles should support
scattered thunderstorms and a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind
gusts across much of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
A locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts (up to 60-70
mph) is expected to materialize across northeastern Nevada,
northwestern Utah, and southern/eastern Idaho where recent
observations and latest guidance suggest relatively greater storm
coverage should intersect marginally more favorable mid-level flow
and low-level moisture. While coverage of damaging/severe gusts may
be locally greater within this corridor, the overall risk is
expected to remain too isolated to necessitate watch issuance.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5P6-ckRfalyx40CJbX7jX1fuTVIjmuALs6R-Y1TwKWpWwmJ3FugLGsv-AU_jvFW396XKQ0YvBY3k8rOf8lQI0ORsH9U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON 41001245 39841382 39561480 40021537 40691555 41351551
42181528 43391448 43841414 44091370 44151300 44111231
43861183 43381147 42751161 41491207 41001245

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)