ACUS11 KWNS 221947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221946
LAZ000-TXZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas into far western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221946Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe
downburst winds through early evening across eastern Texas and far
western Louisiana. This threat should be sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A recent 18 UTC sounding from SHV sampled very limited
inhibition remaining across far west/northwest LA. Further west into
eastern TX, temperatures are much warmer (100-106 F) with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s. Modifying the SHV sounding suggests that
SBCAPE values are likely approaching 3500 J/kg - much higher than
depicted by recent mesoanalysis estimates - with virtually no
lingering inhibition. Recent GOES imagery also shows an expanding
and deepening cumulus field across eastern TX, bounded to the north
by a residual outflow boundary and to the west by warmer 925-850 mb temperatures/capping. Consequently, a corridor appears to be
emerging across east TX into western LA where thunderstorm
development is likely in the coming hours.

Weak forcing for ascent (mainly driven by weak low-level confluence
and/or strong surface heating) suggests that overall storm coverage
should remain somewhat limited. However, a combination of weak
deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates on the order of 8-9
C/km, strong buoyancy, and 1.8 to 2.0 inch PWAT values should
support robust, water-loaded updraft development followed by strong
downbursts. Recent high-res ensemble guidance hints at this
potential and suggests localized swaths of 45-60 mph winds are
possible. This activity should peak by 4-6 PM CDT before gradually
diminishing with the loss of daytime heating after around 8 PM.
Trends will be monitored, but the expectation for more limited storm
coverage should negate the need for a watch.

..Moore/Smith.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4WvxaQB29rjujAXaQ2kGwf5fDsl5v6DsfCwOIC1ZufurZAqR8f5kH-e6VR3F8h-zDz_o4x3CMnwAlXEcnMB65IbKoeY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32669584 33119464 33139436 33009413 31379332 31159333
31009346 30339478 30329506 30429526 32229611 32509607
32669584

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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