ACUS11 KWNS 221919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221918
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-222115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle into far southwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221918Z - 222115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across far
southwest Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas by
late afternoon. This activity will pose a threat for severe
downburst winds as it spreads southwest through early evening. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations are reporting temperatures
reaching into the 106-110 F range within the apex of a thermal ridge
across northwest TX. These temperatures are running 4-5 F warmer
than expected based on the latest high-res guidance, which implies
that boundary-layer mixing is likely deeper than depicted by
forecast soundings. Similarly, residual mixed-layer inhibition is
likely weaker than recent RAP mesoanalyses would suggest. The early
stages of boundary-layer cumulus development are becoming evident in
GOES imagery, suggesting that thunderstorm development appears
probable in the coming hours either along a residual outflow
boundary draped across southwest OK, along a diffuse/weak frontal
zone extending into the TX Panhandle, or in proximity to a weak
thermal low analyzed near the intersection of these two boundaries.

Although recent guidance does not appear to be capturing low-level thermodynamic conditions well, HRRR/RRFS time-lagged guidance shows
a trends towards widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm
development by the 20-22 UTC period. Deep-layer shear will remain
weak and promote mainly disorganized convection, but the potential
for severe downbursts should increase as thunderstorms spread
south/southwest into the thermal ridge where low-level profiles will
be most optimal for near-surface downdraft accelerations. Explicit
wind gusts estimates from high-res solutions depict small swaths of
60-75 mph winds, which appear reasonable given the expectation of
poorly organized convection within a very hot/deeply mixed
environment. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and
watch issuance is possible if convective coverage appears sufficient
for a more widespread severe wind threat.

..Moore/Smith.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_h5ICWsNmLfSLfWiL04u0svUBCecvdl7Roa36SjkXj7GcqA8cm3oZ0UY7xZXERYepcR2d5o7cfhvDRATveCdQBIK4g4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33469894 33419928 33610233 33640275 33720299 33900312
34150316 34500308 34810289 35060253 35130166 35160062
35269914 35149890 34869876 33819857 33609867 33469894

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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