ACUS11 KWNS 221539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221538
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-221815-

Mesoscale Discussion 2081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...central and eastern Ohio...eastern
Kentucky...northern and western West Virginia...and western parts of Pennsylvania and New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221538Z - 221815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe storms is expected
to increase by early afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is
possible by as early as 17-18Z.

DISCUSSION...Mid-morning visible satellite imagery shows a
well-defined MCV over southwest OH with an associated zone of
forcing for ascent contributing to some light shower activity north
of Columbus. The 12Z ILN sounding sampled a relatively deep moisture
profile in the low levels, which yielded MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.
That moisture will combine with strong daytime heating ahead of the
central OH convection to support a moderately unstable air mass by
afternoon for surface-based parcels with MLCAPE increasing to
1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization process coupled with the
forcing ahead of the MCV is expected to foster a gradual increase in
storm coverage and intensity by early afternoon.

Current VWP and RAP-based sounding data indicate the strongest
mid/upper-level winds and resultant deep-layer shear remaining west
of the effective warm sector, which may tend to limit the
organization and longevity of individual storms. Nonetheless,
steepening low-level lapse rates within the inflow region of the
expected storms may enhance damaging wind potential, especially in
areas where storm clusters and/or line segments can evolve.
Marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest storms.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5o494zEMYW9vR0zuoQJNDhQZGgfneOuOiQ1mCDu6TmfsI83e0I2yTujgyTkN9l5Z1LGilpdEkjfzqTg13tLGZMpnf2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON 39088308 40368287 41518219 42248090 42787980 42927899
42307830 41197846 40497862 39417918 38578021 38118094
37508202 37468283 37978326 39088308

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)